In the latest development following the downfall of Vice Admiral Miao Hua, a close confidant of Chinese President Xi Jinping, speculation has been circulating widely in overseas media about the alleged arrest of Army Commander Li Qiaoming.
On December 20th, former Chinese diplomat Han Lianchao revealed on X platform that during a meeting on December 18th, the Chinese Army announced the dismissal of Li Qiaoming, Political Director Zhao Lei, and Equipment Minister Zou Geyin due to their involvement in Miao Hua’s case. They were relieved of their duties and placed under organizational investigation.
Rumors surfaced on December 23rd on X platform suggesting that Li Qiaoming had been dismissed, signaling a fierce power struggle between Xi Jinping and Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia. The exact details of the situation remain unclear.
It is believed that regardless of the circumstances, Xi Jinping, who lost military authority after the Third Plenum due to a stroke, is now actively planning a counteroffensive to regain control over the military. If Zhang Youxia fails to decisively confront Xi Jinping, he may face a fate similar to that of Li Keqiang and Prigozhin.
Since the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, a number of senior military leaders have fallen from grace, often first rumored abroad before being confirmed by Chinese authorities. The news circulating about Li Qiaoming’s arrest may not be baseless.
Currently, there are three main theories regarding the situation: some believe Li Qiaoming is allied with Chairman Xi, others claim he is associated with Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia, and a third theory associates him with former Political Director Miao Hua. Given Li Qiaoming’s rapid rise in recent years, there is a tendency to believe he is aligned with Xi Jinping.
Xi Jinping came to power in 2012 with a strong focus on wresting control of the military from former CCP dictator Jiang Zemin. He achieved this primarily through anti-corruption campaigns and military reforms, replacing Jiang’s loyalists with his own supporters. Li Qiaoming emerged in this process, receiving extraordinary promotions and opportunities from Xi.
In January 2016, shortly after Xi’s military reforms, Li Qiaoming was elevated from the commander of the 41st Group Army to the first Commander of the Northern Theater Command.
In August 2017, after serving just a year and a half as the Commander of the Northern Theater Command, Li Qiaoming was promoted by Xi to become the Commander of the Northern Theater, making him the first post-60s theater commander at that time and the youngest theater commander at 56 years old.
Typically, promotions from theater commanders of land, sea, and air forces to theater commanders occur through cross-theater transfers. Li Qiaoming’s direct promotion from the position of Commander of the Northern Theater Command to the theater commander was unprecedented.
In December 2019, Li Qiaoming was further promoted by Xi to Army General. His promotion from Major General to Lieutenant General took six years (July 2011 to July 2017), whereas his promotion from Lieutenant General to General took only two years and five months. He was promoted to Lieutenant General by Xi in July 2017.
Li Qiaoming served as the Commander of the Northern Theater Command for over five years, making him one of the longest-serving theater commanders appointed by Xi after the 2015 military reforms.
Xi Jinping is known for his suspicion, especially towards senior military leaders, often shuffling their positions. For instance, the Central Theater Command had six commanders in eight years since its establishment in 2016. Li Qiaoming’s long tenure in the Northern Theater Command under Xi’s administration is quite remarkable, indicative of the significant trust placed in him by Xi.
In September 2022, Li Qiaoming was transferred to the position of Army Commander. While this move from the Commander of the Northern Theater Command to the Army Commander seemed like a lateral transfer in terms of rank, it significantly expanded his authority. As the Army Commander, he was responsible for overseeing all land forces of the country, including the armies within the five theater commands and units such as the Beijing Garrison and forces in Xinjiang and Tibet, which fell under the jurisdiction of the Army. This highlights Xi’s special regard for Li Qiaoming.
Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia has an Army background and significant influence in the Army due to his participation in the Vietnam War. Li Qiaoming also participated in the Vietnam War. The appointment of Li Qiaoming as the Army Commander by Xi may have been a strategy to limit the power of Zhang Youxia.
Additionally, Li Qiaoming has frequently published articles in prominent military publications, a rare practice among top military officials in the CCP. For example, in 2013, he wrote an article in the Red Flag Manuscript titled “The Historical Tragedy of the ‘De-politicization’ of the Soviet Army,” emphasizing the importance of party leadership in the military, aligning perfectly with Xi’s emphasis on the absolute leadership of the party in the military. Li Qiaoming’s alignment with Xi could be one of the reasons for Xi’s special appreciation for him.
Given the intense power struggles within the top ranks of the CCP military since the 20th Party Congress, it is leaning towards the possibility that Li Qiaoming may have been arrested. Four reasons support this idea:
Soon after the conclusion of the 20th Party Congress, a major scandal erupted within the Rocket Force. Several high-ranking military leaders and executives were investigated in connection with the Rocket Force, the Equipment Development Department of the Military Commission, and large state-owned military enterprises. The arrest of Li Shangfu, former Minister of the Equipment Development Department of the Military Commission who later became a member of the Central Military Commission, a State Councilor, and Minister of National Defense, created a significant stir.
Li Shangfu was a close subordinate of Zhang Youxia. When Zhang Youxia was the Minister of the Equipment Development Department of the Military Commission, Li Shangfu served as the Deputy Minister. After Zhang Youxia’s appointment to the Politburo and Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission at the 19th Party Congress, Li Shangfu succeeded him as the Minister of the Equipment Development Department. Following Zhang Youxia’s reappointment to the Politburo and Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission at the 20th Party Congress, Li Shangfu was promoted to a member of the Central Military Commission, State Councilor, and Minister of National Defense.
Li Shangfu’s downfall led to the fall of several high-ranking military leaders, ultimately implicating Zhang Youxia.
Considering how Xi Jinping forcibly removed former CCP leaders Hu Jintao from the 20th Party Congress and the mysterious death of former Politburo Standing Committee Member and Prime Minister Li Keqiang shortly after retiring for half a year, as well as Xi’s unyielding purge of former Politburo Standing Committee Members and Vice Chairmen of the Central Military Commission, Xu Caihou and Guo Boxiong, Zhang Youxia must be concerned that Xi Jinping could turn against him at any time. Therefore, he might have decided to take the chance to launch a counterattack to secure his position.
Following Xi’s sudden illness this summer, preventing him from actively running the military, Zhang Youxia, along with CCP elders and princelings, moved swiftly to take control of the military, becoming a crucial force impacting the CCP political landscape.
Refer to my November 4th article published on Epoch Times for more insights on whether Xi Jinping might lose his power.
Since this summer under Zhang Youxia’s leadership, the CCP military has experienced four significant changes:
1. Xi’s most important confidant, the longtime aide, General Secretary of the Central Military Commission Office, Director of the Central Military Commission Office, Zhong Shaojun, was reassigned from key military positions. This marks the severing of Xi’s “left arm” within the military.
2. Removal of Xi’s “confidant of the confidant,” Central Military Commission Member and Political Director Miao Hua. This signal signifies the loss of Xi’s “right arm” within the military.
3. A shuffling of three of the five Theater Command Commanders: Central Military Commission Deputy Chief of Staff Wu Yanan replaced Wang Xiubin as the Commander of the Southern Theater Command; former Central Theater Command Commander Huang Ming was transferred to become the Commander of the Northern Theater Command; former Northern Theater Command Commander Wang Qiang was reassigned as the Commander of the Central Theater Command. This action aimed to disrupt the military allies of Xi, causing turmoil within the military.
4. The replacement of key officials aiding Xi’s military purges: Central Military Commission Disciplinary Committee Deputy Secretary and Military Commission Surveillance Commission Director Chen Guoqiang was reassigned as the Political Commissar of the National Defense University. This move solidified the path for further purging of Xi’s military allies.
Miao Hua, known as Xi’s “confidant of the confidant,” has been Xi’s essential assistant in promoting and utilizing senior military leaders since assuming the role of Political Director of the Military Commission in August 2017. He was a pivotal figure embedded as a “Political Director in Chief” near military leaders, intertwined with power, influence, and fate. It is unlikely that Miao would have been taken down without Zhang Youxia’s direction.
After Miao Hua’s removal and subsequent investigation, several senior military leaders affiliated with Miao have been rumored to fall. Among them are:
1. Eastern Theater Command Commander Lin Xiangyang (General) with reports of being taken for investigation by the Military Disciplinary Commission or alleged suicide, or rumors of Lin committing suicide.
2. Armed Police Commander Wang Chunning (General) was taken for investigation. On December 1, former media personality Zhao Lanjian revealed on X platform, “I have disclosed dynamic information about the Chinese military personnel for over a year, all of which have been confirmed. (Armed Police Commander) Wang Chunning has been arrested, this is reliable information.”
3. Army Political Commissar Qin Shutong (General) under investigation. On December 23, during the promotion ceremony to General, Army Political Commissar Chen Hui was promoted to General, while the whereabouts of Qin Shutong, the former Army Political Commissar, remained unknown, possibly confirming rumors of his investigation.
Previously, former Chinese Navy Colonel Yao Cheng revealed on X, “Qin Shutong was transferred from the 12th Group Army to the 31st Group Army in 2013. Although Xi Jinping had left Fujian by then, when Qin served as the Deputy Director of the Political Department of the 12th Army, Miao Hua was the Political Commissar of the 12th Army. It can be said that Qin should be loyal to Miao Hua because he received recommendations from Miao Hua and finally got promoted while being associated with the 31st Army. Qin is currently the Army Political Commissar, and since Xi took office, there have been no major changes in the Army. It seems likely that Zhang Youxia is behind the investigation.”
4. Both former Navy Political Commissars Qin Shengxiang (General) and Yuan Huazhi (General) are reportedly under investigation. Yao Cheng mentioned on X, “There are signs suggesting that Zhang Youxia is targeting the Navy. The former Navy Political Commissar Qin Shengxiang and the current Navy Political Commissar Yuan Huazhi are being investigated. Both were promoted by Miao Hua during his tenure as the Navy Political Commissar from 2014 to 2017, and both are from the former 31st Army, being close to Xi Jinping. Yuan Huazhi was also appointed while Miao Hua was the Navy Political Commissar.”
Following the 18th Party Congress, Qin Shengxiang served as the Director of the Central Military Commission Office, handling military command for Xi Jinping. He later became the Director of the Military Reform Office, playing a significant role in Xi’s military reform. Qin Shengxiang is undoubtedly a close ally of Xi.
5. After Miao Hua’s downfall, Rocket Force Commander Wang Houbin and Minister of National Defense Dong Jun assisted in the investigations. Wang and Dong were both from the Navy, recommended by Miao Hua to Xi.
After Miao Hua’s removal, a wave of repercussions and investigations unfolded, indicating the likely downfall of a group of senior military leaders. This process is likely managed by Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia.
In conclusion, since the military reforms in 2015, Li Qiaoming has repeatedly received extraordinary promotions and opportunities due to Xi’s favor. Miao Hua, appointed as the Political Director of the Military Commission in August 2017, was responsible for examining Li Qiaoming each time he was promoted. Miao Hua was the primary link between Li Qiaoming and Xi Jinping.
The CCP military has long nurtured a pervasive practice of “running and delivering for promotion” among its ranks, which Li Qiaoming likely followed. It is probable that each time Li Qiaoming received promotions and new responsibilities, he provided gifts and offerings to Miao Hua. If Miao Hua or other knowledgeable individuals disclose information about Li Qiaoming, he may be inescapable.
Furthermore, upon Xi Jinping’s recovery from illness, his unwillingness to lose military authority means he may resort to a “counterattack” through his military confidants. As a result, Li Qiaoming may have inadvertently stepped into Zhang Youxia’s crosshairs. Recent speculations circulating in overseas media suggest such a possibility, indicating that it cannot be ruled out.
Recently, there has been a resurgence of anti-Xi sentiment overseas.
On December 17th, independent commentator Cai Shunkun shared a “Resolution and Petition Letter requesting Xi Jinping to resign from his party, government, and military leadership positions.” It is said that this letter was drafted by a high-ranking individual within the CCP system. The letter lists 28 serious issues of Xi. On December 18th, Cai Shunkun shared a “Denunciation Statement,” signed by Hong Kong’s “Huaxia Men’er.” On December 20th, Cai Shunkun shared a “Denunciation of the CCP,” signed “Zhang Mianguo,” both criticizing Xi.
On December 23rd, former Inner Mongolia official Du Zheng penned an article overseas, stating that opposing Xi and the CCP has become a mainstream sentiment in China.
If Li Qiaoming is indeed arrested, it signifies a further decline in Xi’s military authority and signals high risks for Xi. In 2025, the fate of Xi, and whether he will remain in power, may become clear.