Welcome to the News Insight of December 13th, revealed by the episode on Friday. Our guests for this episode are Professor Ming Juzheng, Honorary Professor of Political Science at National Taiwan University, and Research Assistant Wang Guochen from the Chinese Academy of Economic Research, hosted by Zhang Dongxu.
Today’s focus: Why did the Chinese Communist Party suddenly decrease military exercises? Is it related to Trump? Exclusive analysis on the downfall of the Syrian regime! Is the CCP manipulating exchange rates behind the scenes? With military morale in turmoil, can the CCP avoid a crisis of the ruling party? Beijing no longer dares to challenge Trump?
On December 11th, the White House released a new national security memo targeting the “Evil Four Regimes.” The coordinated global actions of these regimes, including the fall of Assad’s regime in the Middle East, could impact the Taiwan Strait?
While verbally softening towards the US, the PLA has surrounded the first island chain. What are the calculations behind it? The CCP’s “antitrust investigation” against US company NVIDIA continues, with the US escalating chip bans. The CCP is considering devaluing the RMB, to which the US strongly responds to currency manipulation. What is the CCP’s so-called “monetary easing”? Will a new round of US-China trade war, currency war, and financial war erupt simultaneously?
The son of Liu Shaoqi, retired General Liu Yuan, reportedly sent a letter titled “Superfluous Words,” sounding the alarm of the ruling party, what is the underlying message?
Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense confirmed that the CCP mobilized a large number of aircraft and ships around Taiwan’s eastern side and the Pacific first island chain under the guise of “unannounced military exercises,” forming a “double wall” blockade against Taiwan. On Wednesday, we discussed the US’s three aircraft carrier battle groups stationed in the Western Pacific and the US-Japan-Australia joint military exercises as a deterrence response.
Let’s continue analyzing the CCP’s intentions today. Some in Taiwan believe that the CCP’s actions are targeting President Tsai Ing-wen of the Republic of China during her transit in the US, and are directed against the so-called “Taiwan independence activities.” Professor Ming Juzheng, do you agree with this view? Why is the CCP engaging in maritime and aerial exercises while claiming to want dialogue with the US, provoking anger from countries along the first island chain?
The CCP leader issued a statement to the US on December 10th, urging against a trade war or tech war. Observers note that the CCP recently seems to be displaying a series of tools possibly used to counter the US, including preparations for currency devaluation. We have seen the CCP suddenly launch an antitrust investigation against US company NVIDIA, what is the purpose behind this?
The Biden administration finalized an AI investment ban on China scheduled to take effect next year, with reports of further restrictions at the end of December, limiting China’s access to advanced AI chips through third countries.
Assistant Wang Guochen, (1) How do you view Biden’s new ban? (2) What do you think of the CCP’s investigation into NVIDIA?
The White House released a new national security memo on December 11th, targeting the “Evil Four Regimes.” Witnessing the changing dynamics in the Middle East, on December 8th, Syrian rebels captured the capital Damascus, causing the collapse of the Assad regime that had ruled for over half a century, shocking the world. The rebels announced the overthrow of the “tyrant” through state television and are in the process of transferring power. The next day, the CCP Political Bureau hastily convened a meeting, emphasizing the need to “thoroughly carry out various aspects of border governance,” prompting speculation.
Professor Ming Juzheng, how did the long-standing Syrian regime fall within 11 days? What kind of impact might this have? Under global security interconnections, could this affect both sides of the Taiwan Strait?
Reuters reported on December 12th that the People’s Bank of China is considering the RMB to USD exchange rate to fall from the current 7.25 to 7.5 Yuan per USD (a devaluation of approximately 3.5%), with speculation suggesting it may devalue to 8 Yuan per USD to make Chinese exports cheaper and expand the Chinese currency market, aiming to offset potential trade impacts from Trump’s tariffs.
Subsequently, US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that when countries attempt to manipulate their currencies to gain a competitive advantage, the US will “respond strongly.”
Wang Guochen, how do you interpret (1) the implications of the RMB devaluation for the Chinese people? Can this age-old trick offset tariff impacts? (2) Could the US-China trade war, currency war, and financial war unleash in successive waves?
Recent revelations claim that the CCP has cracked down on Political Commissar Miao Hua of the PLA, causing significant turmoil within the party and affecting Xi Jinping. There are also rumors that Liu Yuan, son of Liu Shaoqi and retired general, submitted a letter to the “Central Party,” listing major crises faced by the CCP in recent years, warning that without improvement, the CCP could face a crisis of the ruling party.
What is Professor Ming Juzheng’s opinion on these developments?
The CCP’s Political Bureau convened a meeting, stating unusually that they will implement a “more proactive” fiscal policy in 2025, along with a “moderately loose” monetary policy. This is seen as a preparation to counter the tariff war impact of the Trump administration. Additionally, foreign media interprets this as the CCP’s first shift in monetary policy stance in 14 years, indicating the possibility of more loose monetary policies next year, even anticipating “more robust policy measures to support the economy.” However, some observers argue that the illogical logic of distorting control should not be viewed through the lens of normal societal, governmental, and market economic logic.
Wang Guochen, what are your views on this?
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