Syrian Overnight Uprising Transforms the Situation as Israel Occupies Buffer Zone.

After the rapid downfall of Bashar al-Assad, Turkey emerged as the biggest winner, while Russia, Iran, and CCP (Chinese Communist Party) might end up being the biggest losers, potentially completely withdrawing from Syria. Russia lost its only and largest overseas military base and foothold in the Mediterranean, Iran’s axis of resistance suffered a significant blow, and support for proxy armed groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon is expected to decrease substantially. CCP also lost a longstanding “friend,” with their massive investments in the Assad family likely going down the drain, and the upheaval in Syria serving as a successful example for the Chinese people.

The future of Syria after al-Assad’s fall is highly unpredictable, with a likelihood of returning to warlordism and continued chaos. Currently, the Islamic Sham Liberation Organization, supported by Turkey, stands as the strongest anti-government force, even capturing the capital Damascus and holding a favorable position. They might step forward to establish a new government, but it remains unknown whether they can form a cohesive government with all opposition factions. The Sham Liberation Organization currently adopts a “moderate jihad” strategy, avoiding violence against minority groups and military clashes with foreign forces. They have pledged to ensure the safety of foreign citizens, allowing Russia and Iran to safely withdraw their military personnel and weaponry.

Israel is deeply anxious about the sudden rise of the Sham Liberation Organization. In two days on December 8 and 9, the Israeli Air Force conducted over 300 airstrikes in Syria, targeting nearly all areas under control of the Syrian government forces, destroying multiple naval and air force bases, anti-aircraft positions, weapons depots, and facilities for producing and storing biochemical weapons. Israel’s goal is to prevent the Sham Liberation Organization from obtaining any valuable heavy weapons and ammunition. In anticipation of the collapse of the al-Assad regime, Israeli forces had already deployed ground troops into the 400 square kilometers non-military zone between the occupied Golan Heights and Syria.

With Putin deeply involved in the Ukrainian battlefield, he no longer has the capacity to intervene in Syrian affairs. Faced with the rapid advance of anti-government forces and the swift collapse of the al-Assad regime, the Russian forces stationed in Syria can only hastily retreat, but they are still unable to withdraw completely.

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