China’s economic data released on Tuesday once again raised concerns. According to the data published by China’s customs on November 10th, both imports and exports in China for November fell below expectations. Not only did import data unexpectedly decline, but the growth rate of exports also slowed significantly compared to the previous month.
The customs data indicated that China’s imports in November dropped by 3.9%, marking the largest decrease since September 2023 and the worst performance in nine months, failing to meet the expected 0.3% growth. Meanwhile, exports only grew by 6.7%, much lower than the 12.7% increase in the previous month.
With Trump set to return to the White House bringing new trade risks, the threat of tariffs from the United States is becoming more urgent. This data reflects that Chinese consumer demand remains weak, intensifying concerns about the health of the Chinese economy.
Some companies have reported a decrease in export orders they receive, making it difficult to find buyers amidst the global economic slowdown. Exporters are transferring stocks to overseas warehouses in hopes of a demand recovery.
South Korea experienced its first decline in exports to China in eight months, indicating that Chinese manufacturers are purchasing fewer South Korean components, which in turn affects the export of electronic products.
In contrast, exports from the United States, the European Union, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) all grew compared to the same period last year.
It is widely expected that an increase in U.S. tariffs could pose a greater threat to China because exports are a major driver of China’s economic growth. The long-standing real estate crisis has already weakened confidence among Chinese households and enterprises.
Trump has pledged to impose tariffs on Chinese goods exceeding 60%. Meanwhile, on October 31st, the European Union imposed a 45.3% tariff on Chinese electric cars. Reuters analysis suggests that the EU and China may open a second front in this trade friction.
According to customs data, China’s exports to the United States increased by 8% year-on-year, while imports fell by over 11%.
China’s exports to the European Union increased by 7.2% while imports decreased by 6.5% year-on-year.
Exports to Russia from China declined by 2.5%, with imports also decreasing by 6.5% year-on-year.
Xu Tianchen, Senior Economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), stated, “Global demand is not exceptionally strong at present; other major exporting countries such as South Korea and Vietnam are also experiencing varying degrees of slowdown in their data.”
Xu Tianchen added, “Preliminary signs of adjusting trading behaviors in response to Trump’s upcoming tariff impositions have started to emerge, but the full impact will be seen in the coming months, especially in December and January.”
China’s trade surplus rose to $97.44 billion last month, higher than the $95.72 billion in October.
Xing Zhaopeng, Senior China Strategist at ANZ Bank, attributed the weak import data to a drop in commodity prices.
The data showed that in November, China imported 48.52 million metric tons of crude oil, an increase of 14.3% year-on-year, driven by falling prices from the Middle East and increased stocking demand.
Coal imports in China saw a 26% year-on-year growth in November, reaching a historic high due to cheaper imported coal compared to domestic coal.
The import volume of copper also hit a one-year high in November, mainly due to increased transportation from Africa and the need to replenish domestic building materials inventory.