The power struggles within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are often most intense and crucially tied to the military. On November 28th, the CCP’s Ministry of National Defense announced that Miao Hua, a member of the CCP Military Commission and director of the Political Work Department, is under investigation for alleged “serious violations of discipline.” According to reliable sources, General Wang Chunning, the commander of the Armed Police Forces, has also been arrested. Military experts believe that this purge within the military is spearheaded by Zhang Youxia to take down Xi Jinping’s key faction, aiming to sideline Xi Jinping’s military authority and reconstruct the Military Commission, possibly pushing for Xi’s removal at the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CCP Central Committee.
Independent filmmaker Li Jun stated on NTD’s “Elite Forum” program that Miao Hua has been taken away for investigation by the Central Military Commission Disciplinary Committee. There are also reports of the arrest of Wang Chunning, the commander of the Armed Police Forces. If these reports are true, it is highly likely that Xi Jinping has lost his military authority.
Miao Hua, born in Fuzhou, served in Xi Jinping’s direct faction, the 31st Army, for nearly thirty to forty years before moving to the Navy. He can be considered a crucial member of Xi Jinping’s inner circle. It is said that Dong Jun, the Minister of National Defense with a Navy background, owes his position to Miao Hua’s recommendation.
In addition, the situation surrounding General Wang Chunning is also peculiar. During a national public security video conference on November 21st, the political commissar of the Armed Police Force, Zhang Hongbin, was seated to the left of Wang Xiaoning, which is unusual as it has usually been Wang Chunning in that position.
When Wang Chunning served as the commander of the 12th Army, Miao Hua was the political commissar. While Xi Jinping was the Secretary of the Zhejiang Provincial Party Committee, Wang Chunning served in the First Group Army of the former Nanjing Military Region, where he formed a relationship with Xi Jinping. In August 2016, Wang Chunning became the Commander of the Beijing Garrison, followed by the Commander of the Armed Police Force, positions equivalent to being responsible for guarding the capital, which many attribute to Miao Hua’s recommendation, as Xi Jinping otherwise wouldn’t trust him with such crucial roles. These roles typically only answer to Xi Jinping.
Former CCP Navy Lieutenant Colonel Yao Cheng stated on the “Elite Forum” that after Xi Jinping became the Chairman of the Military Commission, he relied heavily on Miao Hua by appointing him to the most crucial roles within the Military Commission. When Miao Hua encountered trouble, a sign emerged within the navy, indicating that Xi Jinping promoted a Deputy Chief of the Joint Political Department, leading to the sidelining of Miao Hua.
It is widely understood within Navy circles that prior to Miao Hua, the Navy was aligned with Jiang Zemin, and military commanders from Zhang Dingfa to Wu Shengli to Shen Jinlong were figures Xi Jinping sought to control but couldn’t. Yao Cheng indicated that Xi’s motive for targeting the Navy is rooted in his ambition to unify the motherland, with Taiwan at the core of his mission. Therefore, without asserting control over the Navy, Xi couldn’t achieve his goal of unifying Taiwan. By placing Miao Hua within the Navy for three years, he suppressed capable individuals, especially those promoted by Wu Shengli at the time.
Wu Shengli served as the Commander of the Navy for eleven years and can be credited with nurturing most senior officers above the division level, including Shen Jinlong. Miao Hua made significant strategic changes within the Navy, suppressing key figures such as fleet commanders, causing discontent within the Navy ranks.
Why target Miao Hua? Zhang Youxia aims to sideline Xi Jinping through concrete actions within the military. Without addressing Miao Hua, especially his leadership in the 31st Army, it would be challenging to resolve Xi Jinping’s military authority issue. Thus, Miao Hua is at the forefront of these actions.
Regarding Wang Chunning, his previous stint as the Garrison Commander lasted only four months, indicative of internal conflicts within the Garrison and some of the central security forces. Xi Jinping has frequently reshuffled personnel around him, leading to a high turnover rate.
Expanding the perspective, the focus isn’t solely on the 31st Army. In reality, the entire Eastern Theater Command is under Xi Jinping’s control, including He Weidong, who also hails from the 31st Army. During Jiang Zemin’s era, he failed to establish full control over the Nanjing Military Region, comprising the 1st, 12th, and 31st Armies, who often switched roles, promoted each other, and had mutual respect and utilization. The current arrests primarily target individuals from the 31st and 12th Armies, with a historical connection to the Nanjing Military Region, now the Eastern Theater Command.
Yao Cheng stated in the “Elite Forum” that the arrests of Wang Chunning and Miao Hua were most likely orchestrated by Zhang Youxia due to two main reasons. Firstly, Zhang’s relationship with Xi Jinping has soured, especially after the incident with Li Shangfu, forcing Zhang into a corner. Secondly, Zhang must heed the sentiments within the military, as discontent against Xi Jinping is palpable. Xi’s anti-corruption efforts in the military and structural reforms have significantly eroded the military’s combat effectiveness. To retain control over the military, it is imperative to appease the military ranks. Therefore, Zhang takes the lead in these actions.
Military officials have long been suppressed, especially since Miao Hua’s rise to power within the Navy and later within the General political department. Yao Cheng added that the current political commissar, Yuan Huazhi, along with Dong Jun and Wang Houbin, owe their positions to Miao Hua’s influence within the Navy.
Yao further noted that handling such officials within the CCP typically involves secretive investigations, with outcomes not publicized for at least a year. However, reports of Miao Hua and Wang Chunning’s troubles, as well as issues involving Qin Shutong, are quite reliable. The military’s sensitive nature means that once a political commissar is arrested, it creates a sense of unease among lower-ranking officers.
As for Xi Jinping, there seems to be no one left to protect him, especially after the Third Plenary Session of the Twentieth Central Committee and the subsequent Beidaihe Conference. It appears that during internal CCP meetings, it has been decided that Xi cannot be in charge of the Military Commission, instead possibly retaining a ceremonial role as the President, allowing him a soft landing.
Meanwhile, looking at the current situation within the Central Military Commission, it appears to be in a stalemate. Since 2023, annual directives and training mobilization orders have ceased. The splintering of the seven members of the Military Commission suggests ongoing purges. The targeted cleanup of Xi Jinping’s proxies within the military aims to lay the foundation for rebuilding the Military Commission at the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the Twentieth Central Committee. This indicates that there will be shifts in personnel within the military hierarchy.
In the realm of authoritarian regimes, positions like Zhang Youxia’s are precarious. If he doesn’t protect himself, the outcome could be dire. Removing him isn’t enough, as his influence and knowledge will remain, potentially leading to unexpected changes and challenges.
Looking ahead, various ongoing struggles are expected to continue because, within the CCP’s system, military authority signifies absolute control. Losing military authority may spell the end of Xi Jinping’s political career. In the future of CCP politics, significant transformations might unfold.
Regardless of the changes within the CCP’s military apparatus, the hope remains for peace within China, averting any potential conflicts, which is paramount amidst the current developments.
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