According to official statistics from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the number of college graduates in China is expected to reach 12.22 million in 2025, hitting a new record high. Amid economic downturn and mounting grievances, there have been numerous incidents of retaliatory social events. At the same time, activities such as the “Night Ride in Kaifeng” organized by university students have been forcefully banned. Experts warn that under the pressure of grievances, a homegrown form of terrorism may emerge, brewing a societal crisis volcano.
On November 14, the CCP announced that the number of graduates from regular higher education institutions nationwide in 2025 is expected to reach 12.22 million, an increase of 430,000 compared to the previous year. In 2024, the number of graduates was 11.79 million.
Compared to over 8.7 million graduates in 2020, the increase in the number of graduates in 2025 is close to 40%.
In June 2023, the unemployment rate among 16 to 24-year-olds reached 21.3%. Subsequently, the CCP ceased monthly data releases. In December of the same year, the government revised the statistical methods, excluding students from the calculation, leading to a much lower urban youth unemployment rate of 14.9%. However, as millions of university graduates began seeking employment, this figure rose once again. In August of this year, the revised youth unemployment rate reached a new high for two consecutive months, standing at 18.8%.
Cai Xin website cited research by Zhang Dandan, an associate professor at Peking University, last year, indicating that the actual youth unemployment rate in China in March 2023 soared to 46.5%, far exceeding official figures.
Lai Rongwei, CEO of the Taiwan Inspirational Association (TIA), mentioned that the increase in university graduates heralds a continuous cycle of new struggles. According to his friends who returned to Taiwan after teaching in mainland China, the CCP’s employment rate is misleading, with statistics crafted to fit certain policies. “As long as there are companies willing to provide proof that students have worked there, it counts as employment. Providing proof is only a matter of stamping and signing, but in reality, the students did not work.”
On November 14, the CCP’s Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security jointly held a work meeting, with the Education Ministry merely urging universities across the country to proactively promote graduates’ employment and entrepreneurship. The officials emphasized a focus on optimizing talent cultivation, policy guidance, and exploring employment resources.
On October 31, the CCP issued the third national time utilization survey bulletin, revealing that Chinese residents work an average of less than 3.5 hours per day and rest for 9.5 hours. Against the backdrop of rising unemployment, these figures have drawn much attention, sparking mockery among netizens.
Sun Guoxiang, a full-time professor in the Department of International Affairs and Business at Nanhua University in Taiwan, told Dajiyuan that the employment prospects next year will be even more challenging, with many graduates forced to consider alternative forms of employment, such as delivery services and gig economy jobs. However, these jobs offer unstable income and may not fulfill the expectations of higher education. The difficulty in securing employment will contribute to increased social instability, especially in second and third-tier cities and rural areas, where unemployed graduates returning home will add pressure on local governments.
Sun Guoxiang noted that the substantial youth unemployment will directly impact consumption growth for the CCP, further hindering economic recovery and creating a vicious cycle. On the political front, the discontent among young people will eventually challenge the authorities.
Lai Rongwei stated that the unemployment situation next year will be extremely severe, especially as China is now transitioning into an aging society. If young people cannot earn to support their families, experiencing a sharp decline in real income, the overall family burden will increase, laying the groundwork for a brewing societal crisis volcano.
In recent years, China’s continued economic decline has led to increased family disputes due to heightened living pressures. Coupled with issues like unjust judiciary practices by the CCP, there has been a surge in retaliatory killings in society. On November 11, a tragic incident occurred in Zhuhai, Guangdong, where a man drove a vehicle into pedestrians, resulting in significant casualties. The police reported that the suspect Fan did so because he was “unsatisfied with the property division after his divorce,” conveniently omitting the fact that the suspect had disagreed with a court judgment before the incident.
On November 15, an informant revealed to New Tang Dynasty Television that in May of this year, a cleaner at the terminal station of Line 2 of the Shanghai Metro, Pudong Airport, found a small foam box under a bench in a carriage, which contained a plastic explosive device that fortunately did not detonate. Upon reviewing the surveillance footage, a senior student majoring in chemistry at Fudan University was apprehended, who was speculated to have planned an act of societal retaliation out of desperation for not finding employment upon graduation.
The CCP has been conducting extensive investigations nationwide recently, targeting various individuals discontent with their lives, including the unemployed.
Lai Rongwei described the car crash incident in Zhuhai as a form of homegrown terrorism, which stands out by not being affiliated with any international terrorist organizations. The reasons behind such incidents may stem from unemployment among ordinary Chinese people, leading to lack of income, social ostracism, and a sense of alienation, resulting in acts of terrorism driven by individual actions.
He mentioned that the Chinese people are bound to be dissatisfied with the authorities, but with no democratic elections and nominal grassroots elections, dissent accumulates over time and may eventually manifest in homegrown terrorism, major crimes, random killings, or even targeting foreigners. These are outcomes of systemic and structural pressures.
Huang Shicong, a financial expert from Taiwan, stated to Dajiyuan that excessive unemployment could cause significant fluctuations in the collective psyche of society. If a person remains unemployed for five years, they may end up jobless for life, potentially turning to criminal activities.
Sun Guoxiang also pointed out that career failures can lower young people’s confidence, increasing the incidence of depression and anxiety disorders. If mental health issues are not adequately addressed, they may evolve into a greater social crisis.
The recent widespread “Night Ride” action by Zhengzhou University students in Kaifeng, reaching its peak on the night of November 8, with a caravan stretching for tens of kilometers, resulted in the city becoming “filled with shared bicycles”. Reports suggested that the students came from across the country, with numbers surpassing 200,000 at its peak. This movement has since spread to various parts of the country, including Beijing. The CCP authorities have made extensive efforts to maintain stability, swiftly issuing an order to ban all night ride activities, closing roads, and leading to universities in Henan declaring a shutdown, with even other provinces implementing campus closures.
The CCP’s approach closely resembles epidemic lockdown measures, causing students to feel overwhelmed, leading many to protest online.
Analysts online speculate that the current grim prospects for post-graduate employment have created a pervasive fear among university students of graduating into unemployment. With persistently high youth unemployment rates and a bleak outlook, the students vent their emotions in this manner. One post reads: “Ten years of hard study, empty family background, diploma in hand but no road ahead. Where should we go next, as we ask Judge Bao with ten thousand cavalry.”
Previously, in late November 2022, the “Blank Paper Movement” against epidemic lockdown measures garnered participation from numerous university students, with angry crowds chanting slogans like “Xi Jinping Step Down” and “Down with the Communist Party.”
Sun Guoxiang believes that from the Blank Paper Movement to the recent Night Ride activities, young people have shown a strong desire to express themselves. If the issue of unemployment remains unresolved, there may be more decentralized and secretive protest actions in the future.
Lai Rongwei noted that merely using rhetoric to address substantive income issues faced by ordinary people is insufficient for the CCP. Continued repression may result in the malfunctioning of the CCP’s stability maintenance mechanism over time. The CCP is currently wary of people gathering together, such as citizens riding bicycles in parks, whispering about their grievances, gradually forming a consensus among themselves.
Regarding the Zhengzhou student Night Ride activity, Huang Shicong remarked that while the students’ actions have not yet coalesced into a tidal wave-like movement, it has become an issue that the authorities fear. This demonstrates that the CCP regime is currently on a very fragile edge, where any slight disturbance or the incitement of more people could trigger a significant social movement, potentially dealing a fatal blow to the CCP regime.
Sun Guoxiang noted that the high-pressure stability maintenance methods employed by the CCP only bear short-term effects. For instance, during the Blank Paper Movement, the government quickly apprehended and monitored participants, maintaining order on the surface. However, each instance of high-pressure stability maintenance accumulates underlying grievances, suppressing avenues for expression, which may erupt in more intense forms in the future.