The 20th Third Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party has been facing delays. Today, on April 30th, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CCP announced that the Third Plenum will be held in July, focusing on economic issues. The reasons for the previous delays of the meeting have been largely attributed to infighting within the CCP. Of particular interest is whether the central committee membership of dismissed high officials like Qin Gang will be addressed at the meeting.
Official reports extensively cover the content of the Political Bureau meeting, claiming that under the leadership of Xi Jinping, the CCP has achieved a “good start” in the economy but acknowledges facing multiple challenges.
The 20th Third Plenum of the CCP was supposed to be held at the end of last year but has been delayed, leading to a variety of speculations.
Some believe that with the current severe downturn in the Chinese economy, it is difficult to pinpoint the theme of the CCP meeting. Others suggest that the large number of top military officials and ministers like Li Shangfu and Qin Gang, handpicked and promoted by Xi Jinping, who have fallen from grace, has created difficulties in personnel arrangements for the Third Plenum.
Stephen Roach, a professor at Yale Law School, stated in an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on March 4th that bypassing the Third Plenum is a “significant matter,” indicating that Beijing is facing tough economic challenges.
China expert Wang He told Epoch Times on February 27th that after the 20th Party Congress, Xi Jinping’s power reached its peak, but his authority and influence have declined significantly, creating a stark contrast. The difficulty in holding the Third Plenum corresponds to the CCP being in a very bad situation currently, with significant internal divisions. Xi cannot allow the Third Plenum to become an opportunity for the opposition to launch attacks against him; “he must ensure absolute safety before convening it.”
Ding Shufan, honorary professor at the International Affairs School of National Chengchi University in Taiwan, believes that the poor state of the Chinese economy and Xi Jinping’s delayed convening of the Central Committee meeting may indeed be due to increasing insecurity.
The question of whether Qin Gang, Li Shangfu, and others will be removed from their central committee positions at the Third Plenum is also a point of interest. In addition to Qin Gang and Li Shangfu, former Rocket Force Commander Li Yuchao is also a central committee member, and Yuan Jie, former chairman of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, is a candidate member of the 20th Central Committee.
It is believed that Xi Jinping is keen on protecting the significant central personnel decisions he made himself to maintain his authority. Even if the Third Plenum is held, it may not necessarily involve addressing disciplinary issues of central committee members. The fate of the missing central committee members, including former Foreign Minister Qin Gang, military central committee members Li Shangfu, Li Yuchao, and candidate member Yuan Jie from the defense industry, may not be publicly expelled from the central committee. The public may not see how the authorities handle them in the latter part of the process.