The Zhuhai Airshow has attracted attention for serving as a window into the latest developments in the People’s Liberation Army’s military equipment. This year, attendees were expecting to see the much-touted heavy hitter H-20 from the Chinese Communist Party, but there was no information leaked about it. Even with the appearance of the J-35A and Russia’s Su-57, the airshow felt somewhat subdued. The absence of the H-20 and the real capabilities of the J-35A have become the biggest concerns of this airshow.
Back in March of this year, Chinese Air Force Deputy Commander Wang Wei had responded to questions from the media about the progress of the H-20 by saying, “It’s coming soon, just wait for it!””No bottlenecks, everything can be solved.”
Of course, at this moment, the Zhuhai Airshow might not be the appropriate occasion for the prototype of the H-20 to debut since it may not have completed its maiden flight, and the availability of test prototypes is also in question. Some believe that this silence could be due to the need for secrecy or possibly because of extended design cycles resulting from heightened operational requirements.
However, the absence of any concept promotion for the bomber that best represents the expansion of Chinese Communist military power and the most advanced air strike force at the Zhuhai Airshow, especially after nearly a decade of development, appears rather strange. Deputy Commander Wang Wei’s statement in March signified official confirmation of the H-20 project and its progress, suggesting that from a publicity perspective, there was no longer a need for secrecy. The silence on the H-20 at the Zhuhai Airshow seems like a slap in the face for Wang Wei. This might not necessarily be an intentional move by the Chinese Communist Party to discredit Wang Wei, but it is more likely that the H-20 has encountered disruptive problems, to the extent that Wang Wei, who lacks discipline and understanding of the Air Force equipment development, inadvertently embarrassed himself.
Some commentators argue that the H-20, instead of enhancing China’s actual capabilities, is meant to deceive Americans into believing that China is more powerful than it appears. There are also opinions suggesting that unforeseen or unforeseeable issues related to technology, operational use, and the evolution of future warfare may have caused the H-20 project to be stillborn.
Moreover, some Western commentators often cite information of unknown origin, claiming that the H-20 has a range exceeding 8000 miles, a payload of 40 tons, and the potential to surpass the capabilities of the B-2. However, the praise seen in these statements seems insincere and may carry hidden implications.
Firstly, the potential increase in China’s long-range penetrating strike capabilities should draw significant attention from the Pentagon and Congress, requiring a shift in the annual fiscal budget towards the Air Force. Secondly, there is doubt as to whether they truly believe that China has the capability to develop a bomber exceeding the B-2. The Pentagon and the Air Force have already begun considering the development path beyond the more advanced B-21. With the development of artificial intelligence, aerospace technology, unmanned drones, and the evolution of combat theory, the era of stealth bombers may be reaching an end. However, the development path of stealth bombers resembles an extremely lavish race that requires substantial financial resources to compete on this track, and American policy makers may find great enjoyment in watching this “competition.” After all, currently, only China is still participating in the race, while the Americans have begun observing from the finish line. Until China’s financial resources are expended to a satisfying level for the Americans, they probably do not wish for China to bow out of the “competition” prematurely.
Another notable aspect of the Zhuhai Airshow was the public unveiling of the J-35A fighter. There is not much credible information available about the J-35A, but from the released videos and images, the aerodynamic layout, radar cover, cockpit, blended wings, and even the angles and contours of the intake ducts of the J-35 and its predecessor the J-31 (FC-31) prototype are almost indistinguishable from America’s F-35. Even Chinese state media couldn’t be bothered to rebut the frequent accusations from foreign media mocking the Chinese for plagiarism. The only difference is that the J-35 adopted two engines, not because China was unfaithful to the original design during the process of copying, demonstrating creative results, but simply because China fundamentally lacks the powerful single-engine capability of the F-35 and had to settle for two smaller engines, inevitably resulting in a decreased thrust-to-weight ratio at a cost.
This arrangement raises some confusion about the relationship between the J-35A and the J-20 already equipped in the Chinese Air Force. Some Chinese Air Force personnel commented that on the one hand, the two aircraft are paired by weight, middle-heavy pairing, or high-low pairing; on the other hand, they claim the two are close, and the J-35 does not lose to the J-20 in long-range combat capabilities. The China Aviation Industry Corporation (AVIC), the developer of the J-35A, released a statement on Tuesday claiming that this stealth aircraft’s mission is to seize and control air superiority, eliminate enemy fourth and fifth-generation fighter jets and ground-attack aircraft, and intercept hostile air targets including fighter jets, bombers, and cruise missiles. These claims not only contradict the Chinese Air Force’s emphasis on the J-35A’s ground attack capabilities but also overlap in functionality with the J-20. Overall, the Chinese Air Force and the industrial sector have a very vague distinction between the roles of these two stealth fighters, and their descriptions exhibit self-contradictions.
The J-35A is defined as an Air Force type, with the same designation as the American Air Force’s F-35A. In the future, the J-35 may also give rise to a naval carrier-based aircraft similar to the US Navy’s F-35C; it remains to be seen whether it will also be called the J-35C. However, when Chinese J-35 nomenclature aligns perfectly with the American F-35, a sense of disgust towards plagiarism arises.
In reality, China’s mimicry can only copy the surface without grasping the essence. The Chinese Air Force does not seem to fully understand why the United States developed the F-35 after the F-22. This can be vaguely deduced from the explanations of so-called Chinese Air Force expert Song Xinzhi. On November 9, Song Xinzhi stated in a CCTV interview that the J-35A’s appearance at the Zhuhai Airshow indicates that it has officially received its type designation, akin to obtaining a “household registration” within the Air Force, signifying the aircraft’s official commissioning. This means that the Chinese Air Force will concurrently possess both the J-20 and the J-35A stealth fighters. He explained that the relationship between these two aircraft follows a cooperative combat mode: one is each attacking independently, with the J-20 first clearing the airspace before the J-35 carries out ground and maritime attacks; the second scenario involves the J-35 operating in the forefront while the J-20 watches from behind. This interpretation categorizes the two as functioning in a cooperative warfare style or as having an air-to-ground relationship.
According to this explanation, the thinking behind the J-35 and the development of the American F-35 nearly do not match. The F-35 was independently developed based on a joint operational concept without a fixed pairing relationship with the F-22 in combat use. It functions through battlefield information, command and control systems, connecting with various combat units in the air, on the ground, and at sea to achieve the best battlefield effects. Its emergence has propelled the formation and development of comprehensive combat command and control within the U.S. military. However, Song Xinzhi’s viewpoint does not necessarily represent the Chinese Air Force’s equipment development ideology. Perhaps the Chinese Air Force wishes for the J-35 to assume a role similar to the F-35, but their capabilities could fall short.
Beyond some observable stealth features of the J-35, the most significant issue related to the capability of the J-35 in comparison to the F-35 involves other key variables encountered in actual combat, including computations, sensing, targeting, and weaponry. The differences between the J-35 and the F-35 are apparent in sensor detection ranges, data links, target positioning, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance capabilities, and more. The F-35 is highly praised for its ability to discover, target, and destroy enemy aircraft outside their detection range. In recent years, during exercises and simulations by the U.S. Air Force, the F-35 has proven it can discover and destroy multiple fourth-generation fighters beyond the adversary’s detection range. The sensor detection range and image fidelity are notable features of the F-35, achieved through advanced computing, sensing, targeting, remote weapons, and precision guidance, which have been practically validated.
Chinese media’s comments assert that the J-35A also possesses a first-to-discover, first-to-strike capability against enemies, potentially surpassing “same-generation” aircraft (in other words, fifth-generation aircraft). It is claimed that in combat against same-generation aircraft, the J-35A can leverage strong lethality and survivability, combined with advanced formation collaborative tactics, to acquire precise situational information, establish a rapid and stable closed-loop strike chain, and gain the upper hand. This raises the question of whether the J-35A’s detection and targeting capabilities are equivalent to or better than the distributed aperture radar system and electro-optical targeting system of the American F-35. This implies that the J-35 possesses a similar long-range precise sensing and striking capability to the F-35. However, none of these claims have been verified.
If the capabilities of the J-35 are truly as pronounced as claimed by the Chinese Party media tabloids, equivalent to or better than the American F-35, such a “great achievement” should have long become headline news for the Chinese Party media headlines, but in reality, it has not.