On November 5, 2024, the United States Presidential Election voting day took place. In previous years, the “Yiwu Index,” an alternative indicator that is said to be more accurate than polls, has failed to provide any clear indication of the election outcome this year. Analysts suggest that both parties in this year’s U.S. Presidential Election have refused to use “Made in China,” leading to a decrease in orders from Yiwu.
During election years in the United States, there is a high demand for various campaign-related products. Yiwu, known for manufacturing and selling small goods, often judges the likelihood of a candidate winning based on the “heat” of orders. The Yiwu Index accurately predicted Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 but failed in 2020 to predict his re-election.
On November 2, the Chinese self-media “22 Production Economy” posted on its WeChat public account that after Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the presidential race in July, Heather Klein became the new Democratic Party candidate. However, her campaign merchandise is not widely seen in the market.
In contrast, there is an abundance of merchandise related to Trump in the Yiwu market, including flags, hats, t-shirts, providing his supporters with a wide range of options.
The article also points out that unlike the previous two U.S. elections, where various Yiwu indicators were abundant, this time the peripheral product data related to the election is very scarce. Yiwu’s merchants have shown a relatively indifferent response to orders for the U.S. election.
According to a flag shop owner at the Yiwu International Trade City quoted by Caixin Net, reminiscing, eight years ago when Trump was first elected President of the United States, every household would receive orders for flags. This election year, there have been more dramatic changes in the campaigning process of both U.S. political parties. Because both Democratic and Republican candidates have issues related to “Made in China” in their campaign platforms and have stated that they will only sell “Made in America” products during the campaign and refuse to use “Made in China.”
In August of this year, U.S. President Biden signed the “All-American Flag Act,” requiring the federal government to only purchase American-made flags to strengthen the implementation of “Made in America” by the U.S. government.
The owner of a flag store, Mr. Liu, told Caixin Net that the key lies in the orders. “If we can’t make flags, we can still make flags with individuals’ names printed on them.”