2024 Presidential Election: A Historical Moment in American History
The 2024 election in the United States is shaping up to be one of the most closely contested presidential elections in history. As the election draws to a close, the outcome remains unpredictable. Whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump emerges victorious, this election will mark a historic moment for the United States.
On November 5th, the election day is fast approaching. If the Democratic presidential candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris wins, she will become the first female and woman of color to hold the office of President of the United States.
If the Republican presidential candidate and former President Trump wins, he will become only the second president in over 240 years of American history to win reelection after a failed first term. He will also be the first convicted former president to return to the White House.
Mark Updegrove, a presidential historian at ABC, said, “Every four years, you inevitably hear that this is the most important election in a person’s lifetime, but without a doubt, this year’s election is the most important in my lifetime and possibly the most important since Abraham Lincoln was elected president in 1860.”
Updegrove believes that the historical significance of the 2024 U.S. election lies not only in the differing backgrounds of Harris and Trump but also in how it shapes the future of American democracy and foreign policy. He stated, “I have never seen such significant differences in views and policy positions advocated by candidates in my lifetime.”
The campaigning activities of both the Democratic and Republican parties this year have been unprecedented.
President Joe Biden announced his reelection bid in April 2023 and easily won the primaries in the first half of 2024. However, his campaign was derailed after a historic presidential debate with Trump in late June, where his poor performance raised concerns within the Democratic Party about his age.
Under pressure from within the Democratic Party for several weeks, Biden withdrew from the race in late July. Upon announcing his withdrawal, Biden immediately endorsed his Vice President Kamala Harris to succeed him. Harris also became the first woman of color to serve as Vice President of the United States. She officially secured the Democratic presidential nomination after the online delegate voting process in early August.
During the Democratic National Convention held in mid-August in Chicago, Harris, in her acceptance speech, stated that they are all “fighting for the future of America.”
Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, told ABC, “It is rare for presidential candidates to switch roles midway through the campaign. For this already chaotic election cycle, this is a wild moment.”
“Her nomination itself is historic,” Rottinghaus said about Harris. “If she wins, it will break a barrier that the country has been trying to break since the 1920s – electing a Black woman in a country facing greater challenges in terms of race relations is progress.”
Harris’s mother is an Indian immigrant, and her father is a Jamaican immigrant. However, she has not made her race or gender the focus of her campaign.
Jim Kessler, co-founder of the center-left think tank Third Way, praised Harris’s approach, telling ABC, “It’s smart because voters are not interested in making history; they are satisfied with the direction of the country, and voters’ moods are complicated.”
Mary Bruce, ABC’s chief White House reporter, directly asked Harris in the final week before the election day about her views on the history she may create.
Harris replied, “I fully understand my gender and race. I know that, in terms of the glass ceiling about to be shattered, this will be very important. But I don’t believe anyone will vote for me because of my gender or race. It will be because I have won their vote with a plan to make their lives better.”
On the Republican side, former President Trump announced his intention to launch his third presidential campaign in November 2022.
Subsequently, Trump faced four criminal indictments, one of which was found guilty by a grand jury in New York. Interestingly, with each indictment and until the first conviction, Trump gained more support from voters, and heavyweight figures within the Republican Party increasingly aligned with him.
In the Republican presidential primary competition, Trump faced more than a dozen challengers, including his former Vice President Mike Pence during his first term. However, most of these challengers dropped out before the party caucus meeting in Iowa in January. Trump then swept victories in all states except two in the primaries.
At the Republican National Convention held in mid-July in Milwaukee, Trump officially accepted the Republican presidential nomination.
Just two days before this convention, on July 13, during a large campaign rally in Pennsylvania, Trump survived an attempted assassination when he was shot in the right ear. Trump’s calm and fearless response to the shooting, despite being injured, not only increased his wide-ranging support within the Republican Party but also garnered full support from the world’s richest person, billionaire and tech mogul Elon Musk.
If Trump wins, he will become the first president since Grover Cleveland in 1892 to win a non-consecutive second term as President of the United States.
How will history record the 2024 presidential election? Rottinghaus said, “The Democrats are eager to win, although the party has an incumbent president who has performed well in all aspects, there still needs to be a substantial boost in voter turnout. On the Republican side, Trump has somehow garnered Republican support, making his nomination inevitable. I believe we have not encountered such a situation in modern history.”
The 2024 presidential election is approaching its conclusion, but polls show that both presidential candidates, Harris and Trump, remain very close in national and battleground state support, indicating a rare deadlock in their competition.
According to Real Clear Politics (RCP) averaging all polls released by major polling agencies between October 11 and November 3, Trump leads Harris by 0.1 percentage points nationwide.
In the seven battleground states, RCP’s statistical average data shows that Trump leads overall by 0.8 points over Harris. The advantages for both candidates vary in each battleground state: Pennsylvania (Trump 0.3), Michigan (Harris 0.9), Wisconsin (Harris 0.3), North Carolina (Trump 1.5), Georgia (Trump 1.9), Arizona (Trump 2.6), Nevada (Trump 1.0).
Neither candidate’s lead has reached a decisive level. In the three states known as the “Blue Wall” states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – the margin between the two candidates is less than a point. In the other four battleground states located in the sunny belt of the South, Trump’s lead varies between 1 to 3 percentage points, with most falling within the margin of error.
In recent weeks, there have been slight differences between the Blue Wall and Sunny Belt states: Harris has shown more competitiveness in the Blue Wall states, while Trump has performed better in the Sunny Belt states.
If Harris can win these three Blue Wall states in the end, even if Trump wins the other four battleground states – while the results in other states remain unchanged from the 2020 election – Harris may win with a slim majority of 270 electoral votes to Trump’s 268.
However, the Congressional Hill Report warns, “Do not underestimate the possibility of either candidate facing a collapse,” as a troubling key issue is the “potential for system errors” in polling and forecasting models.
As on the day before the 2020 election, RCP’s average polling values showed Biden leading Trump by 6.9 points, Biden eventually won by a margin of 4.5 points and received 306 electoral votes. Likewise, on the day before the 2016 election, RCP showed Hillary Clinton leading Trump by 3.2 points, yet, Trump ultimately triumphed with 304 electoral votes.
The Congressional Hill Report states that if Biden remains the Democratic presidential candidate, he could still win the majority of these battleground states, with no room for error for Harris.
On the other hand, if Trump’s performance in the battleground states improves, he could also make a comeback to the White House.
This year, voters from both parties have shown great enthusiasm for early voting. According to NBC, as of the evening of November 3, over 76 million votes had been cast nationwide, including mail-in ballots and in-person early voting. However, any final result inferred from these early voting figures is unreliable since there are still too many unknown factors.
Nevertheless, the aides of each presidential candidate are working hard to bolster confidence within their respective camps.
Trump’s campaign advisor Stephen Miller enthusiastically stated on social media on November 1, “Early voting numbers are still amazing. Kamala is crumbling.”
Meanwhile, Harris’s campaign advisor David Plouffe also posted on X platform, saying he believes “the number of decisive late voters will break double digits,” which will be advantageous for Harris.