On October 31, 2024, the US Department of Commerce reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index in the United States rose by 2.1% year-on-year in September, marking the lowest annual increase in three and a half years. This data met economists’ expectations and is closer to the Federal Reserve’s target.
The data released by the US Department of Commerce on Thursday showed that the year-on-year increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index in September was 2.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from August, reaching the lowest level since early 2021, slightly higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
According to estimates from financial data and software company FactSet, this annual increase marks a new low in three and a half years.
After seasonal adjustments, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index in September increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month, matching the annual growth rate, in line with economists surveyed by Dow Jones & Company’s expectations.
The Core PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy, is a key inflation measure used by the Federal Reserve. This index increased by 0.3% compared to the previous month and by 2.7% from the same period last year. The annual inflation rate exceeded economists’ expectations by 0.1 percentage point but remained steady compared to August.
The inflation trend is leaning towards service prices, with a 0.3% increase in service prices over the past 12 months ending in September, while goods prices declined by 0.1%, marking the fourth consecutive month of deflation in the last five months. Housing prices increased by 0.3%, while energy goods and services prices decreased by 2%.
The latest inflation data further confirms that price increases have been largely contained, intensifying expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates. The market is betting that the central bank will lower the benchmark short-term lending rate at its meeting next week. In September, the Fed cut rates by 0.5 percentage points, which was almost unprecedented during an economic expansion period.
Olu Sonola, the US Economic Research Director at Fitch Ratings, commented on Thursday, “A rate cut next week is almost certain, as all newly released data we’ve seen so far this week supports this decision. The bottom line is that the labor market remains strong, inflation is largely on a moderating trend, and economic growth is solid.”
Following the release of Thursday’s data, major stock indices opened lower, while US Treasury bond yields rose.