On October 24, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Zhang Youxia, visited Vietnam and received a high-level reception. Despite the significance of the visit, CCP official media remained silent on the matter until October 26 when related reports were finally released. Moreover, during Zhang’s meeting with senior leaders of the Vietnamese Communist Party, there was no mention of CCP leader Xi Jinping, leading to widespread attention due to these unusual occurrences.
Political analysts believe that Zhang Youxia’s visit to Vietnam may have indicated to the outside world, to some extent, a semi-public hint that Xi Jinping’s power within the CCP’s military has been replaced by Zhang. This move not only suggests Xi Jinping’s diminished military power but also may reflect the CCP’s gradual release of signals regarding changes in Xi’s position following a significant transition in power within the CCP leadership.
According to reports by the Vietnamese military media on October 24, General Pan Wenchiang, member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Vietnamese Communist Party, Deputy Secretary of the Central Military Commission, and Minister of National Defense, invited Zhang Youxia, member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the CCP and Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, leading a delegation, to undertake an official visit to Vietnam from October 24 to 26, 2024.
Video footage released by the Vietnamese military displayed the high-level reception of Zhang Youxia with a red carpet welcome, where he reviewed the honor guard together with Pan Wenchiang. During the welcoming ceremony, senior Vietnamese military officers were present, including General Huang Chunzhan, member of the Central Committee of the Vietnamese Communist Party and Deputy Minister of Defense, General Huang Zhansheng, member of the Central Committee of the Vietnamese Communist Party and Deputy Chief of General Staff of the military, and Major General Li Guangming, Deputy Director of the General Political Bureau of the military.
On October 25, Vietnamese official media outlets, including Vietnam News Agency and the Vietnamese government news website, reported on Zhang Youxia’s visit to Vietnam. On the same day, Zhang met with Prime Minister Su Lin and Vietnamese President Leung Qiang. On the morning of October 26, Zhang was received by Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh at the Government Headquarters in Vietnam.
It is noteworthy that prior to October 26, CCP official media remained silent on Zhang Youxia’s visit to Vietnam, with no relevant reports. Only the Chinese news portal Netease published an article on October 25, which was a complete reprint of the report by the official Vietnamese news agency. It was not until October 26 that the CCP Ministry of National Defense website and other official media began to release news about Zhang Youxia’s visit to Vietnam.
Before this, the latest public report on Zhang Youxia by CCP official media was until October 22. It was reported that during the period from October 20 to 22, Zhang Youxia attended a joint training session held in Zhangjiakou, Hebei Province. He observed demonstration exercises and live-fire drills at night, and delivered a speech at the joint training summary meeting.
Those in attendance at this meeting included relevant departments of the CCP Central Military Commission, the Joint Operations Center of the Military Commission, various theater commands, various services of the military, direct units under the Military Commission, the People’s Armed Police, and leaders of related military academies, among others.
October 22 coincided with Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia and attendance at the BRICS summit, leading to heightened external interest in these simultaneous events.
The markedly low-key treatment by CCP official media of Zhang Youxia’s visit to Vietnam, juxtaposed with the widespread coverage of activities of officials at similar or lower levels by CCP official media, is striking. For instance, on October 25, Xinhua News Agency reported that a member of the Political Bureau of the CCP Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, He Lifeng, met with UN Habitat Executive Director Maimunah Mohd Sharif in Beijing. On October 23, Xinhua News Agency published a report on State Councilor Shen Yiyan’s recent investigation in Fujian.
Reports by Vietnamese official media indicate that during Zhang Youxia’s meeting with Vietnamese leaders, he did not mention Xi Jinping’s name.
After the welcoming ceremony on October 24, Zhang Youxia held talks with Pan Wenchiang, during which Xi Jinping’s name was not mentioned. Zhang Youxia only emphasized that the China-Vietnam relationship had been nurtured by “leaders of both countries” and should implement the consensus reached by the CCP and the Vietnamese Communist Party and “top leaders of both countries.” Following the meeting, the two sides signed several defense cooperation agreements.
Additionally, Vietnamese media reported that during Zhang Youxia’s meeting with Su Lin, Su Lin conveyed greetings and well-wishes to Xi Jinping through Zhang Youxia, but Zhang did not mention Xi Jinping. However, CCP official media claimed that Zhang Youxia conveyed Xi Jinping’s greetings and well-wishes to Su Lin. There were clear discrepancies in the reports by both sides.
During the meeting between Zhang Youxia and Leung Qiang, Leung Qiang mentioned Xi Jinping’s name, but Zhang Youxia did not respond to it. He simply expressed his happiness at visiting Vietnam for the first time in his capacity as Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the CCP and congratulated Leung Qiang on assuming the position of President.
Political analyst Chen Pokong, based in the United States, stated in an interview with a reporter from Da Ji Yuan on October 26 that Zhang Youxia’s visit to Vietnam this time was unusual. Vice Chairmen of the Central Military Commission of the CCP seldom travel, and even when they do, it is usually to major countries such as Russia. Zhang Youxia had previously traveled to Russia in his capacity as Vice Chairman of the CCP Central Military Commission and met with Putin. However, Zhang Youxia’s visit to Vietnam this time was especially notable, with the high-level reception he received making this trip stand out.
Chen Pokong believes that the recent strained relationship between Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping, along with rumors of Xi Jinping’s declining military authority, have caused dissatisfaction among Xi Jinping and his close associates such as Cai Qi and Wang Huning. Chen Pokong stated that through control of the party media, Xi Jinping’s camp kept silent on the news of Zhang Youxia’s visit, resulting in almost no one in China being aware of this trip.
He stated that Zhang Youxia’s unusually sudden visit seems to suggest that either Zhang or the anti-Xi camp hopes to maintain stability in diplomatic relations with neighboring countries, prompting speculation about what might be happening in the Zhongnanhai area.
Another U.S.-based political analyst, Tang Jingyuan, also expressed to a Da Ji Yuan reporter that Zhang Youxia’s visit to Vietnam has indeed displayed various unusual aspects. Firstly, the reception given to Zhang Youxia by the Vietnamese side was exceptionally high, seemingly surpassing the standard for a deputy official and more akin to the treatment of a top leader. In addition, Zhang did not mention Xi Jinping during the visit, led a delegation, and signed a border defense cooperation agreement with the Vietnamese side. However, despite this high-profile diplomatic activity, both large and small CCP media outlets maintained silence, which is rare in previous instances.
Tang Jingyuan believes that Zhang Youxia’s visit to Vietnam has, to a certain extent, semi-publicly revealed that Zhang has replaced Xi Jinping in terms of power within the CCP’s military. He said that this signal not only implies Xi Jinping’s diminished military authority but may also indicate that following a significant shift in Xi Jinping’s power, the CCP authorities are gradually releasing information about changes in his position to the outside world.
Tang Jingyuan believes that if there are major problems with Xi Jinping’s power, it could lead to a power vacuum. In such a scenario, if not properly controlled, senior CCP officials may trigger a power struggle, even leading to severe social unrest. To prevent such a situation, the CCP authorities arranged for Zhang Youxia to visit Vietnam, which may be a “turning exports into domestic sales” strategy, that is, transmitting information overseas to eventually circulate within China to achieve a smooth transition in the political situation. He said that this may be an intentional arrangement made by the CCP.