【Epoch Times, October 25, 2024】Former Japanese Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s appointment as the Prime Minister of Japan has raised questions about the role he will play in Japan-Taiwan relations. Several organizations in Taiwan, including Public Policy Institute Taiwan and Taiwan Think Tank, jointly held a symposium on the topic “Is it Taiwan’s concern or Japan’s concern? – Changes and Constants in Japanese Politics,” inviting scholars and experts to analyze.
The host, Wang Wenyue, the head of the Southeast Asian Studies Department at Jinan University, pointed out that over the past year, Japan’s political situation has been tumultuous, with various controversies such as political donations and the influence of the Unification Church leading to factional instability in Japan and significant consequences for the Kishida administration. After Fumio Kishida’s resignation, Ishiba took over as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, facing the upcoming Lower House election, a pivotal moment to discuss changes in Japanese politics. The discussion on the future direction of Japan’s politics post-Ishiba’s election, Japan’s Indo-Pacific strategy and its connection with Taiwan, is crucial for those interested in the evolution of Taiwan-Japan relations.
Dong Siqi, the Deputy Executive Director of Taiwan Think Tank, stated that during the October Japan-ASEAN Summit and the Japan-China Leaders’ Meeting, Prime Minister Ishiba emphasized the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait for the international community, reaffirming that maintaining peace in the Taiwan Strait is an indispensable part of global security and prosperity. This consistent stance of the Japanese government was also reiterated by former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the September Quad Leaders’ Summit and the Ministerial Meeting between Japan, Australia, highlighting the importance of Taiwan Strait stability for regional peace. This indicates that Taiwan-Japan relations will continue to deepen, especially in regional security cooperation.
Dong Siqi emphasized that despite Prime Minister Ishiba’s perceived cautious approach on Taiwan-related issues, Japan’s support for Taiwan remains solid, particularly in deepening economic, technological, and cultural exchanges. Moreover, parliamentary exchanges between Taiwan and Japan have been strengthening, with over 60 Japanese parliamentarians visiting Taiwan since May.
Dong Siqi underscored that the development of Taiwan-Japan relations in the future not only depends on government cooperation but also relies on active engagement of the younger generation in regional peace and global issues. He urged Taiwanese youth to seize opportunities to promote further exchanges and cooperation in areas such as economics, technology, and culture, contributing to regional stability and prosperity.
Li Shihui, a professor at the International Affairs School of National Chengchi University, noted that Taiwan’s connections to the world encompass the “Island Chain,” “Supply Chain,” and “Democracy Chain,” all deeply intertwined with Japan. However, the understanding that “Japan is important to Taiwan” has evolved over the past decade from Japan’s lack of explicit regard for Taiwan in official positions and minimal interaction between the two sides.
Li Shihui stated that under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan shifted from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the Prime Minister’s Office to decide Taiwan-Japan affairs, advancing relations to a strategic level at the Prime Ministerial level, where Japan’s view of Taiwan as a priority depends on US-Japan relations and the ongoing escalation of the Chinese threat, influencing the future of Taiwan-Japan relations.
Li Shihui pointed out that Japanese media generally believe that the upcoming Lower House election will pose a serious challenge to Prime Minister Ishiba’s term as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party may struggle to secure a majority on its own. Ishiba’s proposal of an “Asia NATO” before the election has garnered significant attention, suggesting a proactive stance on the Taiwan issue and further advocating “Taiwan’s security is Japan’s security.” However, whether Japan will deploy troops for Taiwan still depends on domestic voices within Japan.
Li Shihui stated that regardless of who wins the Japanese prime ministerial election, it will be challenging to reverse the course of Taiwan-Japan relations. While the past relationship between Taiwan and Japan was politically driven, it is now based on a choice of democratic values. As Japanese people increasingly understand Taiwan, political figures who betray Taiwan will struggle to gain support from the majority of voters, leading to an expectation of the maintenance of the current state of Taiwan-Japan relations.
Zheng Lixuan, the head of the Sociology Department at National Chengchi University, pointed out the contrasting political landscapes between Taiwan and Japan, where Japan has been governed by the Liberal Democratic Party for an extended period with minimal change, while Taiwan has undergone significant transformations. The historical interactions between Japan and Taiwan were built on the Japanese-educated generation in Taiwan and economic and trade exchanges, dominating the exchanges before 2000. Post-2000, Taiwan-Japan relations have been established on shared values such as democracy and pursuit of social life, gradually replacing the previous generation rooted in the Japanese language.
Zheng Lixuan highlighted that Taiwan’s Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s move to Kumamoto, mutual economic complementarity between Taiwan and Japan, and similar social values will replace the previous foundation, marking a new chapter in their relationship not seen before.
Secretary-General Zhou Dewang of the United Nations Association pointed out that many Taiwanese people have limited knowledge of Japan and lack understanding of how Japan views Taiwan. Using the example of the controversy surrounding Prime Minister Ishiba’s visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, he illustrated the differing views within Japan’s political spectrum. Understanding how to strengthen Taiwan-Japan exchanges is crucial, encompassing important social issues such as surname adoption, policy activities fees, and tax reform, which are unfamiliar to Taiwanese people.
Xie Wensheng, the Executive Director of the Oasis Educational Foundation, stated that Japan has shown three distinct attitudes in international affairs from the post-World War II era to the present. These include focusing on anti-communism from 1945 to 1972, an economic perspective from 1972 to 2010, and a reevaluation of China-Japan relations from a security perspective after the 2010 Diaoyu Islands incident.
Xie Wensheng said that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s 70th anniversary statement in 2015 and the Indo-Pacific Strategy represented the consensus of the entire cabinet, signaling Japan’s reassessment of its role in the international arena. In 2021, Shinzo Abe proposed “When Taiwan is in trouble, Japan is in trouble, and the US-Japan alliance is in trouble,” the first linkage of the Taiwan issue with US-Japan relations. Successor Yoshihide Suga convinced Biden to inherit Trump’s international strategy.
Xie Wensheng pointed out that in 2022, following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Fumio Kishida raised the concept that “today’s Ukraine will be tomorrow’s East Asia,” bringing the Taiwan issue into a global perspective and influencing other major world powers. Current Prime Minister Ishiba has proposed an Asian NATO and revised the non-nuclear principles. Japan’s current security direction is a consensus among major political figures domestically and is not likely to change with a change in prime ministers. The Asian NATO is a tactical issue with the US-Japan alliance at its core, tactically targeting countries, most notably China.
Following the panel discussion, the host and young participants raised questions on “The diverse and inclusive nature of Japanese culture and its implications for Taiwan,” “Comparing regional revitalization in Japan with Taiwan,” “Comparing Japanese production supply with Germany,” and “Japanese security and the Taiwan issue,” among others, with the panelists providing thorough analyses and answers to each question.