In the past two weeks, the polling in key states seems to be leaning in favor of former President Trump, causing concerns among Democrats.
With less than two weeks left until election day, the Cook Political Report indicates cracks in the “blue wall” of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with the incumbent senators in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin engaged in tight races with their opponents.
Traditionally, these three northern states tend to develop in the same direction during presidential elections. However, recent polls show Trump gaining momentum over Harris, especially in Wisconsin. Additionally, concerns among Arab-American voters in Michigan have added to the worries of Democrats.
The recent escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has put Harris in a dilemma of reaffirming support for Israel while appeasing pro-Palestinian voters. Trump, on the other hand, highlights the lack of major conflicts in the Middle East during his tenure and promises a swift return to peace in the region if elected.
In Nevada, veteran political journalist Jon Ralston noted rare Republican leads in early voting across the state. Although Democrats managed to weaken the Republican advantage overnight, as of Tuesday, the Republicans still maintained a 2-point lead.
While Democrats believe Harris has a chance to win, the close margins between the two candidates in seven crucial states that could determine the election outcome leave room for uncertainty, whether it’s a shifting public opinion or polling inaccuracies that may play a decisive role.
A Democratic strategist expressed uncertainty about the evolving situation, indicating the competitiveness of the election but refraining from optimism about the outcome, unsure about openly predicting a victory.
Another strategist noted the unfavorable atmosphere of the current election campaign. A former White House aide from the Obama administration remarked on the unpredictability of the election results, stating that victory for either side would not be surprising.
Democratic strategist Jim Manley, a senior aide to former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, remains cautiously optimistic about Harris’s chances of winning but emphasizes the importance of having a solid plan.
Other Democrats interviewed by The Hill on Tuesday expressed some optimism as Harris’s schedule in the final days of the campaign will focus heavily on key states.
Harris conducted two interviews on Tuesday and is set to visit Houston, Texas, a non-swing state, on Friday to deliver a speech on abortion rights. Her campaign team confirmed that she will attend events with women affected by strict abortion laws in the state, making a final statement before the end of the campaign that is expected to draw national attention.
Polls indicate that abortion rights will continue to drive engagement among female voters from both parties.
Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons commended Harris for taking risks, including a recent interview with Fox News that turned Republicans like Liz Cheney into “campaign partners.”
Joel Payne, another Democratic strategist, emphasized the importance of strong voter mobilization for Harris to secure victory in an election where voter turnout plays a crucial role.
(Adapted from The Hill report)