Third-party candidates will be participating in the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election in all major swing states, garnering increasing attention on how they will impact the election results in two weeks.
According to a report by The Hill, current statistical data shows Vice President Harris and former President Trump neck and neck in many swing states. Even a shift of just one or two percentage points of votes to other candidates could potentially change the outcome of the White House race.
While Green Party nominee Jill Stein is currently the most prominent third-party candidate, others including independent candidate Cornel West and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver are still in the running. Meanwhile, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has withdrawn from the race and pledged support for Trump but will still appear on the ballots in several key states.
Here is the situation of third-party candidates in crucial swing states:
According to the latest survey by The New York Times/Siena College, Stein is leading among American Muslim voters in the state, while Oliver’s candidacy has reduced the voting rates for Trump and Harris.
On average data from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ, Trump is leading by 8 percentage points in Ohio, surprising the Democratic Party. Early in-person voting began last week in the state with over a million voters casting their ballots.
Election analysts believe that Stein’s influence in Ohio may not be as significant as in Wisconsin or Michigan, but any external candidate, including Oliver from neighboring Tennessee, could still attract voters to protest vote. In 2020, Oliver ran in a special election for the fifth congressional district in Ohio.
For voters interested in third-party candidates, Kennedy and Stein form a strong combination in Michigan. In 2016, Stein drew enough votes from Hillary Clinton to boost Trump’s first campaign.
Harris faces challenges among Arab American voters in the state, with some voters defecting due to the Biden administration’s response to the Gaza conflict. Stein has garnered support from an American Muslim group called “Abandon Harris.”
The Democratic National Committee has reminded voters in Detroit and Saginaw that in 2016, “Trump won Michigan by 10,704 votes – Stein received 51,463 votes.”
Oliver is the only third-party candidate in Nevada. His national polling averages typically hover around 1%.
Stein failed to register in the state, while Kennedy successfully removed his name, making Oliver the potential game-changer.
A North Carolina GOTV organizer told The Hill that they have not seen voter interest in third-party candidates. However, West’s candidacy, centered on “fighting for justice for all,” has garnered support from a fringe group who believe more choices are crucial for democracy.
Pennsylvania is the most closely watched battleground, with Harris and Trump investing heavily to secure the state’s 19 electoral votes.
According to a poll by The Washington Post-Schar School on Monday, Harris leads by 2 percentage points. Trump, on the other hand, led by 1 percentage point in another survey earlier this month by Emerson College.
Reports from multiple media outlets indicate that Harris has spent $500 million on advertising in the state and has visited 20 times. Trump, over the weekend, appeared at McDonald’s, causing a stir with a significant campaign investment there.
At this time, third-party candidates become more intriguing. According to a comprehensive survey, Stein and Oliver are projected to attract between 1% to 3% of votes, a margin experts believe could affect the outcome.
Stein, Kennedy, Oliver, and West will all appear on the ballots in Wisconsin.
Democrats are closely watching Stein, recalling Hillary’s narrow loss in the state in 2016 by 1%. Kennedy also remains a potential vote attractor from either side.