Bob Vallier, a resident of Paris, has lived outside the United States for most of the past 30 years but recently returned to his hometown in Michigan to cast his vote for the November 5th election.
Vallier also serves as the chair of the overseas Democratic LGBTQ+ core group. He stated, “Everything that happens in the United States will impact other regions in the world. I know this because I have lived in other parts of the world.”
The votes of Vallier and other American expatriates living abroad could be crucial in fiercely contested key districts like the one in his home state of Michigan. Michigan is one of the most hotly contested states in the election. Recent polls show that the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, holds a slight lead over her Republican opponent, Donald Trump.
According to the Democratic National Committee (DNC), an estimated 1.6 million overseas American voters are eligible to vote in one of the seven so-called swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The election outcomes in these states could determine the final result of the election.
It is believed that these overseas Americans tend to lean towards the Democratic Party. In the 2020 election, three-quarters of overseas voters who used the tool “Vote From Abroad” associated with the DNC identified themselves as Democrats.
Therefore, for the presidential election, the DNC has allocated around $300,000 for the first time to help overseas Democrats register to vote, enhance mail-in voting, and other initiatives. The committee is also running ads on social media urging overseas Americans to send in their ballots.
Maddy Mundy, a spokesperson for the DNC, stated in a press release, “This election will be decided by the margins, every vote matters, and we will win this election by mobilizing every eligible voter, no matter where they are.”
Republican presidential candidate Trump is also seeking support from American expatriates overseas. Earlier this month, he announced plans to eliminate the double taxation on overseas Americans.
While details on how this policy would be implemented by the former president’s campaign team are yet to be provided, this policy could potentially remove a cumbersome requirement that demands U.S. citizens, regardless of residence, to file income tax in the United States.
Although overseas Americans are not required to pay U.S. taxes on incomes below $126,500 and may be eligible for some foreign tax offsets, citizens of many other countries do not face the hassle of tax filing.
When asked if Trump’s proposal is a factor he considers, Zennon Kapron, a financial technology consultant from Singapore registered to vote in New York, stated, “For many overseas Americans, including myself, our only ongoing connection with the U.S. government is filing taxes every April.”
He added, “If a candidate takes tax reform for expats seriously, it could impact my decision.”
Solomon Yue, the CEO of Republicans Overseas, expressed that the Republican Party has been working to improve tax policies for overseas Americans over the years, which could “completely” influence the vote of overseas expats.
He said, “I have seen overseas Democrats starting to panic.”
Trump has criticized Democrats for seeking fraudulent overseas voting.
The Republican National Committee (RNC) has filed legal challenges against overseas voting, particularly in North Carolina and Pennsylvania. If successful, the lawsuits could reduce the number of overseas American voters.
A lawsuit filed by Republicans in Michigan attempting to block some overseas Americans from voting in the state was rejected by a judge on Monday, October 21.
Efforts to block overseas voting have prompted six Democratic congressmen to write to the Secretary of Defense, inquiring whether one of the lawsuits would affect the constitutional rights of active-duty military personnel and pointing out that Republican claims in the lawsuit are creating “disharmony and misinformation.”
Engaging overseas voters poses a challenge. Estimates by major parties and external experts suggest that the number of expatriate voters ranges from 4.4 million to 9 million, yet only a small fraction is believed to actually cast their votes.
Unlike citizens of many other countries who can queue at embassies on election day, U.S. voters must mail their ballots to their registered states, usually through postal services.
The U.S. Federal Voting Assistance Program indicates that most eligible overseas voters often do not participate in voting. In the 2020 presidential election, less than 8% of overseas voters sent in their ballots, compared to a total voter turnout of 67%. In the 2022 midterm elections, the participation rate of overseas voters was only 3.4%.
In a neighborhood in central Paris, volunteers set up a booth outside a café every Monday and Tuesday afternoon, assisting Americans in understanding the regulations of various states and local election laws to increase voter turnout.
They spend two hours helping individuals register to vote or complete provisional ballots in case issues arise with their original ballots. One of the volunteers, retired lawyer Tanya, mentioned, “The problem is that the registration instructions are difficult to understand.”
Last week, Claudie Le Corre, a resident in the southeastern suburbs of Paris, visited a polling station because she did not receive her ballot from New York, where she is registered. Believing she had been purged from the voter list, she filled out paperwork to re-register.
(This article was adapted from a report by Reuters)