On October 21, 2024, South Korea’s intelligence agency revealed that North Korea had dispatched 1,500 elite troops to Russia for training to support the Russian military on the front lines of the Russia-Ukraine war. On the same day, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced that Xi Jinping would attend the BRICS summit in Russia on the 22nd. These international developments have drawn widespread attention to the changing situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China’s stance.
Analysis indicates that Russia is facing a shortage of troops and requires North Korean assistance to defend against the next wave of Ukrainian attacks. This move brings pressure not only to the United States but indirectly to Ukraine as well. For Putin, this is a strategic maneuver. At this crucial moment, Beijing’s role in Eastern Europe and East Asia is ambiguous.
According to reports, the South Korean Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian Ambassador to Seoul on Monday (21st) to protest North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia in the Ukrainian war zone.
The G7 Defense Ministers meeting, which concluded in Italy on the 20th, issued a joint statement condemning Russia and North Korea for expanding military cooperation in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, emphasizing G7’s unity in countering the situation. The G7 expressed concerns about North Korea’s export of ballistic missiles to Russia and their use in combat in Ukraine, as well as China’s increased military activities around Taiwan.
The South Korean National Intelligence Service stated that North Korean soldiers, transported by Russian warships from October 8th to 13th, will directly participate in Russia’s military operations in Ukraine after training. South Korea expects North Korea to continue to deploy a total of 12,000 troops to support Russia on the battlefield.
In another development, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced on the 18th that Chinese President Xi Jinping, upon invitation from Russian President Putin, would attend the 16th BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia from October 22 to 24.
The South Korean National Intelligence Service identified these North Korean special forces soldiers entering Russia using AI facial recognition software, raising concerns about the potential escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the disturbance of the security balance on the Korean Peninsula.
Taiwanese professor Wang Hongren of National Chengchi University pointed out that even without North Korean involvement, the Russia-Ukraine conflict would inevitably expand. Russia has been intensively bombing cities in eastern Ukraine and deploying drones to harass NATO countries like Norway, Romania, and Poland.
Wang stated, “Russia is testing how Ukraine and NATO cooperate.” Regarding Ukrainian President Zelensky’s “Victory Plan” proposed on the 17th, Wang highlighted the key point of unconditional acceptance of Ukraine joining NATO, which Russia cannot accept. He believes Putin’s next move may involve direct confrontation with European NATO countries.
“Bringing in North Korea and previously Belarus is a way to avoid fighting alone. China’s involvement will be more discreet, likely through backchannel communication,” Wang added.
General Yu Zongji, former Dean of the Political Warfare College at National Defense University, emphasized the real purpose of North Korea’s special forces in Russia is to undergo combat training in preparation for war, aiming to enhance their military capabilities. However, he assessed that it is unlikely for Russia to support North Korea due to its severe shortage of troops, hence North Korea’s assistance is crucial against Ukraine’s next offensive.
As for Beijing’s role in Eastern Europe and East Asia during this critical period, Wang believes it is ambiguous. While China does not intend to form a triangular relationship with Russia and North Korea, it will maintain a cooperative partnership with Russia.
According to the South Korean newspaper, The Chosun Ilbo, relations between North Korea and China, traditionally friendly, have recently shown signs of deterioration. Kim Jong-un even referred to Beijing as a “hostile force.” China has intensified crackdowns on North Korean smuggling activities, seized Kim Jong-un’s belongings, and refused to return them, displaying a tough stance. Kim’s strong dissatisfaction with Beijing likely stems from this.
General Yu discussed the U.S. presidential election on November 5, anticipating potential negotiation acceleration in the Russia-Ukraine conflict if Trump were re-elected, which could disadvantage China. This could be why Xi Jinping decided to participate in the BRICS summit in Russia. General Yu speculated that Xi Jinping would increase military support to Russia.
Last Tuesday (15th), Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov met with Chinese Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia in Beijing and held talks with Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe.
General Yu noted that Putin hopes for increased Chinese military support, especially anticipating Trump’s re-election and resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict through peaceful negotiations.
General Yu emphasized that Xi Jinping would not prefer a swift end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict as it would harm China’s interests. If Russia reconciles with the West after the conflict, it would put Beijing in a disadvantageous position, facing Western democratic nations alone.
Moreover, during the BRICS summit held in Russia on Tuesday, the focus primarily remained on economic issues. With China’s internal economy in severe decline and Russia embroiled in war, the economic pressure on major BRICS countries is significant.
General Yu anticipated limited breakthroughs during the BRICS summit due to increased hostility from the U.S. and NATO towards China, prompting Beijing to seek alternative markets through BRICS countries, particularly in South and Central America.
Debates continue regarding the timing of a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan – 2027? 2035? Will China adjust its timetable for attacking Taiwan amid geopolitical changes in Northeast Asia, possibly advancing its plans?
General Yu believes the chances are slim unless the U.S. election results in a close vote count and significant protests similar to those four years ago, causing administrative paralysis in the U.S.
Considering China’s continued missile tests near Xinjiang and Mongolia, as well as recent military exercises near Taiwan, General Yu stressed that Taiwan remains vigilant. With preparations for potential cross-strait conflict ongoing, Taiwan’s defense sector is on high alert, and missile deployments suggest readiness for China’s remote strike capabilities.
General Yu believed that including Japan and U.S. security departments should have prepared relative responses to such scenarios.