The US presidential election voting day is approaching, and the world is watching closely to see who will win. A survey suggests that both Trump and Harris have multiple potential paths to victory, with the key being how they can string together enough states to secure at least 270 electoral votes.
According to statistics from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ, the election results in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin could be crucial in determining the outcome of the White House race. These seven battleground states have a total of 93 electoral votes.
Currently, both Trump and Harris have polling leads in these states of less than 2 percentage points. While polls to some extent reflect public sentiment, history has shown that the public can sometimes be unpredictable. For example, in the election eight years ago, Trump lagged significantly behind Hillary in the polls but ultimately won unexpectedly.
Here are the most likely winning paths for Trump and Harris in the election.
For Trump, the simplest way would be to win the three swing states with the highest number of electoral votes – Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. This way, his electoral votes would reach exactly 270, meeting the threshold for victory.
Even if Harris is able to win one of these states, she would still need to win at least three out of the remaining four states to secure a victory, while Trump would only need to win two.
According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s model, Trump has about a 50% chance of winning in Pennsylvania, the same as Harris, but his chances in Georgia and North Carolina are about 65%, slightly ahead.
Another model from FiveThirtyEight predicts that winning Pennsylvania significantly increases the chances of overall victory. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, he would win the election in 86 out of 100 simulated scenarios.
The model predicts that if Trump wins his top three states – North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona – he would only need to win one state from the remaining “blue wall” states to surpass 270 electoral votes.
If he wins North Carolina, Georgia, and Michigan, he would only need to win one more state from Arizona, Wisconsin, or Nevada to ensure entry into the White House.
Some analysts point out that if Trump outperforms polling predictions as he did in the past two elections, then the scenario of him sweeping all seven states is particularly likely.
In both 2016 and 2020, pollsters underestimated Trump’s performance, leading to unexpected victories. If Trump performs slightly better than the polls predict this year, it could be enough for him to gain an edge in each battleground state.
If Trump wins all seven states, he would have 312 electoral votes, while Harris would have 226, creating a larger margin than Trump’s victory in 2016 or defeat in 2020.
Harris winning three “blue wall” states is her simplest and best winning path, but this path could result in a very close margin between her and Trump’s total votes. These states shifted to Trump in 2016 but supported Biden again in 2020.
If Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, known as the Rust Belt states, and Trump wins Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, Harris would win the election with a minimum of 270 electoral votes, while Trump would have 268.
The key to this path is that Harris would also need to win one electoral vote from Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district. Nebraska allocates its electoral votes based on the congressional district’s voting results. The 2nd district seems to lean towards Harris, but polling results in that district remain tight.
For the Democratic Party, the most anticipated scenario is undoubtedly Harris winning the states that Biden won four years ago and gaining a new territory by winning in North Carolina. Polls show Harris either slightly leading, tied, or slightly behind in swing states.
If Harris can win all seven states, she would have 319 electoral votes, the highest electoral vote count since Obama’s reelection in 2012. Trump would receive 219 votes, losing by a margin of 100 votes.
However, analysts point out that there is a high probability that at least one state’s outcome will differ from the previous election.
In US history, these states have never voted for the same party in consecutive elections, but this could change in the upcoming election.
If Harris fails to win Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes, she still has other options. North Carolina and Georgia each have 16 electoral votes, almost the same as Pennsylvania, with Democrats considering North Carolina in 2020 as the state most likely to shift towards their support.
If Harris can maintain an edge in Michigan and Wisconsin and split the votes with Trump in North Carolina and Georgia, she would only need to win one of Arizona or Nevada to secure the White House.