Unconventional Strategy: Ukraine’s Military Aid May Lead to Surprising Tactics

In today’s society, the role of weapons and military forces is imbued with deeper meanings than just slaughter. Powerful military capabilities are often utilized for deterrence, maintaining world peace, and ensuring human security. While warfare has become more covert, it has never ceased. Stay updated with the latest in military affairs to understand the intricate details and truths behind the struggle between right and wrong.

With the green light flashing for the U.S. aid plan, a new round of military aid materials has begun to enter Ukraine. The pressing question remains: what weapons and ammunition does Ukraine urgently need, and how will these resources be utilized?

President Biden approved the aid plan on April 24th. General Charles Q. Brown, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, stated that the Pentagon is prepared and has started providing new military assistance to Ukraine.

The new comprehensive aid plan was formulated based on Ukraine’s requests, including various ground-launched missiles, javelins, AT-4 anti-armor systems, precision air-to-ground bombs, High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) ammunition, 155mm high-explosive and cluster munitions, as well as vehicles, small arms ammunition, and medical supplies.

President Zelensky noted that these are the exact weapons and ammunition needed by frontline soldiers, with a total value of $1 billion. He also confirmed Ukraine’s need for anti-tank missile systems, emphasizing that Ukraine’s long-range capabilities, artillery, and air defense systems are essential tools for swiftly restoring justice and peace.

Meanwhile, the United Kingdom has also provided a significant amount of new weapons. Zelensky stated on April 23rd that the UK has provided Ukraine with its largest assistance package to date, valued at £500 million, including the Storm Shadow cruise missiles with a range of up to 400 kilometers, hundreds of armored vehicles, ships, and other ammunition.

The U.S. had previously provided Ukraine with the first batch of 20 sets of shorter-range old version Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) last October, which were quickly deployed in the field. Ukrainian National Security Council officials commented that these missiles “exceeded expectations.”

April 24th brought many significant developments, with notable news being the U.S. secretly providing a small quantity of Army Tactical Missile Systems with a range exceeding 300 kilometers to Ukraine a month prior. Now, the new supplemental agreement has paved the way for more of such ammunition to be sent to Ukraine.

In mid-February, the Biden administration approved providing over 100 long-range Army Tactical Missiles to Ukraine, as part of a $300 million military aid shipment sent in March. This was the first aid package since funds were depleted in December last year. The range of these missiles is nearly doubled compared to the previous old version Army Tactical Missiles.

The U.S.’s decision to provide Ukraine with long-range Army Tactical Missiles exceeding 300 kilometers can be seen as a response to Russia’s use of long-range ballistic missiles provided by North Korea. The U.S. Department of Defense has confirmed that the Army Tactical Missiles arrived in Ukraine early this month.

These missiles seemingly played a role in the air raid on the Crimean Russian airbase on April 17th. Ukrainian intelligence agencies stated that Ukrainian forces attacked the Sokoyi airfield in northern Crimea on April 17th, destroying or damaging four missile launchers, three radar stations, and one command and control center. These destroyed Russian facilities were meant to protect the S-400 air defense system at the airport. The Ukrainian side did not disclose any details of the weapons used in the attack, only mentioning that it was very “successful.” However, a Russian military blog claimed that the Ukrainian forces used around a dozen American-made Army Tactical Missiles in this attack. This suggests that Kyiv began deploying and using these weapons almost immediately upon receiving them.

The MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System has provided Ukraine with flexible, rapid, and long-range strike capabilities. It has proven crucial in destroying bridges, suppressing ground-to-air missile sites, sinking navy ships, disrupting command and control centers, logistic supply facilities, and critical supply routes.

Originally designed in the 1980s, the Army Tactical Missiles aimed to provide a precise firepower capability for deep strikes at any time. This potent weapon was first used in Operation Desert Storm and later in the Iraq Freedom Operation.

The Army Tactical Missiles fly at an altitude of approximately 48,000 meters with a maximum speed of 3.0 Mach and weigh around 1,700 kilograms. The earlier models had a range of about 165 kilometers and could carry warheads weighing up to 570 kilograms. There are multiple variants of the missile, including cluster warheads that can carry up to 300 M74 submunitions, causing extensive damage in the target area. Additionally, there are high-explosive and single warhead variants designed for armor penetration, suited for various tactical purposes based on the situation.

The missile’s flight speed is several times faster than most cruise missiles, including the UK’s Storm Shadow, making it especially suitable for time-sensitive target attacks. For fixed targets like ammunition depots, roads, and bridges, its high speed advantage makes it easier to penetrate enemy missile defense systems. Moreover, its launch system is compatible with the HIMARS system, both employing ground vehicle mobility for better concealment, flexibility, and survivability.

In the latest aid packages provided by the U.S. and the West to Ukraine, the most prominent offerings are long-range precision-guided weapons, including the U.S.’s ground-launched Army Tactical Missile System and the UK’s air-launched Storm Shadow cruise missile, both with ranges exceeding 300 kilometers. The Ukrainian military can effectively utilize these weapons at any time to target Russian military objectives. This signifies that the Ukrainian army now possesses the capability to strike all Russian military depots, logistical nodes, command and control centers, and supply lines on occupied territories including Crimea and the Kerch Strait Bridge.

All Russian military facilities throughout Crimea are no longer safe, as they are now vulnerable to precision strike firepower at any moment. The Kerch Strait Bridge, a lifeline connecting Russia and Crimea, has become extremely fragile and is susceptible to precise strikes with Army Tactical Missiles launched from any Ukrainian position within the country and distant attacks from Storm Shadow cruise missiles in the air and unmanned watercraft at sea. This significantly raises the difficulty level of defending the Kerch Strait Bridge for the Russian military.

If the Kerch Strait Bridge is destroyed, it will lead to an indefinite interruption of railway and road traffic routes, turning Crimea into an isolated island. The land routes to Crimea could also be simultaneously blocked by long-range firepower from Ukrainian forces. Even before the Ukrainian military acquired Army Tactical Missiles, the Russian Navy’s sea routes in the Azov and Black Seas may have already been paralyzed or faced severe challenges. Ultimately, this scenario could result in logistical disasters for all Russian occupying forces in Ukrainian territories. At the very least, Russian efforts to maintain supply lines for the invading forces would become exceedingly difficult, complex, and visibly deteriorate their logistical supply status.

This situation might lead to significant changes in the Ukrainian military’s tactics in the next stage of the conflict. The Ukrainian forces will likely shift from traditional positional struggles to focus more on long-range precision strikes, depleting and disrupting Russian military logistics resources to wear them down.

A notable success story from employing such tactics initially appeared in the Black Sea, where Ukraine effectively pushed almost a third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet out of the region using long-range missiles and unmanned surface vessels. They neutralized one-third of the fleet, forcing it to retreat from Sevastopol on Crimea to Novorossiysk. Simultaneously, Ukraine opened up Black Sea transportation routes, ensuring unhindered grain transport.

Republican Senator Roger Wicker (R-MS), while testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee, emphasized that long-range precision missiles demonstrate that Ukraine, when equipped with the right weapons, can achieve victories on the battlefield. He envisioned what the situation would have been two years ago if they had possessed these missiles. He believes that this support also reflects a significant policy shift by the Biden administration, showing an escalation in U.S. military aid to Ukraine.

On April 26th, during the Ramstein Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, the latest aid package was announced by U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin. This could be a multi-year plan involving some equipment requiring production contracts with U.S. defense companies rather than drawing from existing stockpiles.

The latest comprehensive aid package includes National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) supplementary ammunition; launchers, missiles, and radars necessary to integrate Western air defense systems with Ukrainian systems; counter-drone systems and equipment; laser-guided rocket system ammunition; multi-mission radars; counter-artillery radars; High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) supplementary ammunition; 155mm and 152mm shells; air-launched precision-guided munitions; various drones systems; as well as other tactical vehicles, small arms ammunition, and training support.

During the Ramstein meeting, Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine needs the power to strike back against Russia. Long-range missiles, air defense systems, especially the Patriot missile system, are crucial.

From Zelensky’s explicit requests and the subtle changes in the U.S. aid plan, it is evident that long-range missiles are overtaking conventional artillery ammunition in occupying the top spot on the aid list.