Multiple international airlines have canceled or partially canceled flights to China due to reduced demand, increased operational costs, and geopolitical tensions. At the same time, Chinese airlines are also reducing their international routes. Analysts say this reflects a decline in the Chinese Communist Party’s economic and international influence.
On October 10, Polish Airline LOT announced that it would suspend direct flights between Warsaw and Beijing during the winter of 2024 to 2025. The airline spokesperson, Krzysztof Moczulski, cited poor sales performance for the route, stating that the pricing lacked competitiveness compared to airlines operating shorter routes.
Polish Airline became the fifth European airline recently to stop flying to China. The last flight from Polish Airline to Beijing will depart on October 25.
The day before, Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) issued a notice on October 9 to suspend its Copenhagen-Shanghai route starting from November 10. The decision was made to optimize resources amidst current market conditions. However, China remains an important market for SAS, and the company will monitor the situation for opportunities to resume the business in the future.
Copenhagen-Shanghai is SAS’s only route to China, currently operating four flights per week. SAS is the national airline of Denmark, Norway, and Sweden, held by the SAS Group with headquarters in Sweden.
In the past three months, three European airlines have also stopped or reduced their operations to China, citing cost and competitive pressures.
At the end of September, Lufthansa, one of Europe’s largest airlines, announced the suspension of its Frankfurt-Beijing route in late October. However, Lufthansa will continue to operate direct flights from Munich to Beijing and provide services flying directly from Germany to Shanghai.
In early August, British Airways announced the suspension of its London-Beijing route starting from late October. The route is expected to be paused for at least a year, subject to review in November next year. However, the airline will continue its flights to Shanghai.
In mid-July, Virgin Atlantic Airways, based in the UK, announced the cessation of its London-Shanghai route from October 26. This was the airline’s only route to China.
Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted, the EU and Russia have mutually closed their airspaces, leading to longer and more circuitous routes for flights from Europe to the Far East, resulting in increased fuel consumption and higher ticket prices.
However, Chinese airlines can still fly over Russian airspace, allowing them to offer shorter routes at competitive prices.
Apart from Europe, several airlines in the Asia-Pacific region have also adjusted their routes to China.
On October 3, the Philippine Department of Tourism stated in a release that local airlines must re-evaluate their Philippines-China routes due to weak international travel demand from China and the worsening economic slowdown along with ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Due to subdued Chinese tourist demand and escalating geopolitical tensions between the Philippines and China, three major Philippine airlines have reduced direct flights to China and plan further cuts before the end of the year.
Philippines AirAsia has currently suspended all flights from Manila to China. Before the 2019 outbreak, AirAsia operated flights from Manila to seven Chinese cities, which reduced to four post-pandemic in 2023. By mid-year, it was down to two cities, and by the end of August, all flights to China had ceased.
Meanwhile, Cebu Pacific Air, a local low-cost airline in the Philippines, has shelved plans to resume its Manila-Beijing route in 2024. Due to reduced demand, the airline plans to decrease its flights from Manila to Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Xiamen by the end of the year, retaining only two destinations.
Additionally, data from the global flight statistics provider OAG shows that Philippine Airlines has decreased the frequency and number of routes from Manila to China, maintaining only several routes to Shanghai, Xiamen, Quanzhou, and other cities.
In the past few months, two airlines from the Asia-Pacific region also suspended their routes to China.
In mid-July, Royal Brunei Airlines announced the suspension of its flights to and from Beijing starting on October 27. The airline stated it would monitor the market conditions and resume operations when suitable.
In mid-May, Qantas Airways from Australia also announced the suspension of its flights from Sydney to Shanghai, effective July 28, citing low market demand, with plans to resume the route when conditions allow.
Notably, Sydney and Shanghai are the largest cities in Australia and China, respectively. After canceling the Sydney-Shanghai route, Qantas introduced a new route from Brisbane to Manila, also adding flights to Singapore and India.
Economist David Wong, based in the United States, commented to the Epoch Times that the airlines’ actions are not just short-term decisions but reflect long-term planning. The withdrawal from a certain route indicates a lack of confidence in the future market and landscape of that country.
Wong further noted that China’s economic prosperity in the past attracted many countries due to being a significant consumer market. However, routes that were once fiercely contested by various airlines are now being abandoned, signaling a decline in China’s investment and tourism markets and the immense pressure on its domestic economy.
In addition to many airlines recently cutting back on China flights, some carriers stopped flying to China during the pandemic and never resumed those routes.
Flights between India and China, two populous nations, have not resumed since being suspended four years ago due to the pandemic and border conflicts.
Aeromexico from Mexico also suspended its direct flights to China during the pandemic and has yet to resume operations to the country.
Flight resumptions between the US and China have been limited. According to OAG data, flight frequencies between the US and China in July were only at 23.6% compared to five years ago, with seat occupancy at 25%.
Professor Sun Guoxiang from the Department of International Affairs and Business at Nanhua University in Taiwan told the Epoch Times that the airline industry is crucial infrastructure for international business, tourism, and cultural exchange. The reduction in international routes may negatively impact China’s international trade, foreign investment, and business activities, as well as affect its outbound tourism industry and further impact economic development.
Sun also mentioned that China’s international appeal is declining, especially post-pandemic, as many countries have accelerated their disengagement from China. The adjustment of China routes by multiple countries reflects a shift in evaluations of China’s international importance within the global business community.
While many foreign airlines are adjusting their routes to China, the Chinese aviation industry is also undergoing restructuring. Due to requirements from the Chinese communist authorities to discontinue subsidies for international routes in certain cities, a significant number of international flights from regional cities are expected to be suspended.
In late August, the Civil Aviation Administration of China and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued guidelines on advancing the construction of international aviation hubs, confirming the ‘3+7+N’ development pattern for international aviation hubs.
The document classifies China’s aviation hubs into three categories. The first group, ‘3,’ includes Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, positioned as comprehensive international aviation hubs.
The second group, ‘7,’ spread across the country, includes cities such as Chengdu, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Kunming, Xi’an, Urumqi, and Harbin, identified as regional international aviation hubs.
The third group, ‘N’, refers to several regional aviation hubs.
According to the document, regional governments are restricted from subsidizing international routes connecting airports other than the designated hubs. This implies that apart from these 10 cities, no international route subsidies will be allowed.
In an article on Netease, a major Chinese online portal, it was mentioned that to make China’s civil aviation profitable, a minimum seat occupancy rate of 60% is required. When demand is insufficient, these international routes depend on local subsidies. Many of China’s international flights are operating at a deficit. Even without government intervention, this local subsidy model is unsustainable.
The article cited data showing that as of September 6, besides Hong Kong, Macau, and the ten hub cities mentioned, international routes connecting various cities in China totaled 280, involving 48 cities. The analysis predicts that many cities will face the dilemma of suspending international flights.
David Wong highlighted that generally, the more routes and larger airports a country has, the more prosperous it is. Conversely, a reduction in international routes and smaller airports indicates a decline in the country’s influence on international trade and discourse.