The United States Congress has passed a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine. The first $10 billion worth of U.S. military stock weapons and ammunition were directly shipped to Ukraine to address the urgent situation, while the delivery schedule for the remaining $60 billion worth of weapons is still pending. The aid aims to help Ukraine withstand the current Russian military offensive, but how to deal with the anticipated larger summer offensive remains a challenge. While the U.S. and NATO continue to support Ukraine, it is crucial to curb China’s support for Russia, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may be irreversible without containing China’s influence.
Ukraine has repeatedly called for timely U.S. military assistance to hold the line, warning of difficulties in maintaining defense without it. Some speculate that Ukraine’s defense may collapse soon. Currently, Ukraine is putting up effective resistance without signs of collapse, and the U.S. military aid is considered timely help, expected to alleviate the ammunition shortage and boost morale. Apart from urgent need for weapons and ammunition, Ukraine also requires an ample number of troops.
The Ukrainian military has been aiming to have a frontline force of 500,000 personnel, but there is a significant shortfall. Currently, Ukraine has only about 300,000 personnel fighting on the front lines. The average age of soldiers on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides in the conflict is over 40. Ukrainian President Zelensky may issue a mobilization order in May to enlist men over 25, a move likely to be unpopular among the public, leading to more young people exiting the labor market and potentially further damaging Ukraine’s economy.
War is brutal, and casualties are the most distressing aspect, but without sufficient troops, winning the war is nearly impossible. With Russia having a population three times that of Ukraine, their available military personnel are evidently greater. In early 2023, Russian forces in Ukraine increased to 360,000 personnel, and by the summer when Ukraine began its counteroffensive, Russian forces surged to 410,000. By early 2024, Russian forces further swelled to 470,000 personnel. Despite significant losses, Russia has recruited more personnel, expanding its military strength.
Moscow is replenishing its forces in Ukraine at a rapid pace, with a target of 300,000 additional personnel from spring conscription, with a possible total of 400,000 for the year. While these newly recruited troops may not be immediately engaged in the upcoming summer offensive, they could at least offset expected losses. Even if Ukraine were to launch a counteroffensive, it would still face a situation of fighting against superior numbers, posing a significant challenge.
Currently, Ukraine does not hold the initiative on the battlefield, and a counteroffensive is not yet on the agenda. Recently, the Ukrainian forces in the eastern front finally underwent a large-scale rotation, indicating tight personnel numbers and a grim battle situation.
Russian forces have suffered significant casualties during the attacks, and Ukraine’s defending forces also have significant casualties. In recent months, the lack of weapons and ammunition has placed Ukrainian forces at a clear disadvantage in firepower. The Ukrainian military urgently needs ammunition and a substantial number of trained soldiers.
While the Ukrainian military has not faced defeat, Russian forces, backed by superior firepower and troop numbers, continue to make gradual progress in the eastern front lines.
The latest developments show that Russian forces are maintaining a strong offensive pace at the Avdiivka front, with advances of up to approximately 5 kilometers since April 18. In early April, Russian forces claimed to have occupied an additional 403 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in 2024.
Before the U.S. military stock ammunition reached the front lines, the ratio of artillery fire between Russian and Ukrainian forces was 10:1, indicating a significant disparity. Since 2024, Russian fighter jets have dropped over 9,000 precision-guided glide bombs on Ukrainian positions. Due to a shortage of air defense ammunition, the front line’s air defense capabilities have significantly decreased, allowing Russian fighter jets to boldly appear 100 kilometers from the front lines and launch glide bombs with impunity, severely weakening Ukraine’s frontline defense.
Russian forces have taken the initiative, exerting continuous pressure on Ukrainian positions from multiple fronts in an attempt to achieve multiple breakthroughs. With sufficient troops, Russian forces are conducting small-scale infantry assaults, putting a strain on Ukrainian defensive lines. Facing both a shortage of ammunition and personnel, in some defensive positions, a single Ukrainian soldier reportedly has to confront three to four Russian soldiers. In the Bahmut direction, Russian forces outnumber Ukrainian troops by about five to seven times.
Russian forces are aiming to deplete Ukrainian personnel and equipment as much as possible while seeking tactical gains. Ukraine had previously compensated for its equipment disadvantage on the front lines with drones, but now Russian forces have also begun utilizing a significant number of drones. According to Ukrainian drone operators, both sides’ extensive use of drones has made the battlefield “almost transparent,” with up to 100 reconnaissance and attack drones operating simultaneously within a 10-kilometer radius. This has made it easy for any armored vehicles to be easily identified and targeted by enemy drones, artillery, and anti-tank missiles.
Ukraine has pulled back the M1A1 tanks provided by the U.S. from the front lines, with 31 of these tanks reportedly having been destroyed. This move indicates that Ukrainian partial counterattacks may lack heavy equipment support.
Russian drones on the front lines have shifted to lower electronic frequencies, rendering Ukraine’s higher-frequency electronic jamming systems ineffective. A Ukrainian commander revealed that Russia is rapidly developing drones operating across multiple frequencies, with his battalion detecting 70 to 90 Russian drones daily, making it difficult to shoot them all down.
On April 24, the U.S. Department of Defense announced the allocation of $1 billion in stock ammunition to be sent to Ukraine. U.S. officials stated that the goal was to prevent Ukrainian losses and help Ukraine “regain momentum” on the battlefield. This aid package includes RIM-7, AIM-9M, Stinger air defense missiles; Hellfire ammunition; 60mm mortar rounds; 105mm and 155mm artillery shells; Bradley tanks; anti-tank missiles; multipurpose vehicles; precision aviation ammunition, among others.
The latest weapons and ammunition are expected to temporarily offset Ukraine’s disadvantage on the front lines, helping stabilize its current defenses and thwarting Russian offensives. However, this $1 billion worth of weapons may not last long.
On April 26, the U.S. announced an additional $60 billion worth of weapons aid, including more Patriot air defense missiles, anti-drone equipment, anti-artillery radars, Hellfire rocket ammunition, shells, precision aviation ammunition, drones, vehicles, etc. These are mainly orders for U.S. defense contractors, with specific delivery times yet to be determined. If most of the equipment can be delivered to Ukraine before the summer, it is expected to assist Ukraine in resisting the Russian summer offensive. Otherwise, the Ukrainian military will continue to face challenges.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, U.S. military assistance to Ukraine has exceeded $50.2 billion, with NATO providing over 3,000 armored vehicles, including more than 800 main battle tanks, and tens of thousands of anti-tank missiles. These weapons and ammunition have helped Ukraine maintain a full-scale confrontation with Russia but have not been sufficient to drive Russian forces out. In supporting Ukraine in a war of attrition making it challenging for Russia to continue, the involvement of China cannot be ignored.
On his visit to China ending on April 26, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken pointed out that without China’s support, Russia’s attacks on Ukraine would be difficult to sustain. The U.S. has accused China of supplying mechanical tools, microelectronics, and nitrocellulose for making ammunition and rocket propellants, supporting Russia in the production of rockets, drones, tanks, and other weapons.
NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg stated on April 25 that “if China wants to maintain good relations with Western countries, it must stop supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine.” He also mentioned that in 2023, “Russia imported 90% of its microelectronics from China, used for producing missiles, tanks, and aircraft. China is also working to provide Russia with better satellite capabilities and imaging technology.”
Russian President Putin’s upcoming visit to China in May is expected to seek more support from China. While Russia has received millions of stockpiled artillery shells from North Korea and large quantities of drones from Iran, only China has the capability to support Russia’s war machine to a significant extent.
Russian forces have launched around 9,000 various missiles toward Ukraine, conducting combined drone attacks on Ukraine’s energy, transportation facilities, and military enterprises. With China’s backing, Russia can obtain crucial components for producing missiles and drones, amassing a sufficient quantity to launch attacks.
In the Russia-Ukraine war, artillery accounts for approximately 80% of personnel casualties on the front lines. Most of the U.S. and European Union stock has been supplied to Ukraine, with the U.S. delivering over 3 million various caliber shells and borrowing 300,000 155mm artillery shells from South Korea, with their stock nearly depleted. Recently, Ukrainian officials have revised their demand, stating that to hold the frontline, they need a minimum of 75,000 shells per month, roughly 2,500 rounds fired daily.
The U.S. aims to increase its shell production to around 60,000 per month by October 2024, hoping to further raise it to 75,000 per month by April 2025 and then up to 100,000 per month by October 2025. Part of the EU orders has been placed in U.S. factories, and it is estimated that in 2024, Ukraine may only receive the minimum required 75,000 shells per month.
NATO hopes that Ukraine can endure through 2024, and with increased production by NATO defense industries in 2025, they may be able to satisfy the requirements for a counteroffensive, while also hoping that Russian ammunition stockpiles will dwindle.
Russian forces fire approximately 300,000 shells per month, with production already increased to 250,000 shells per month. With further support from China and additional supplies from North Korea, Russia could sustain the attrition warfare in Ukraine.
While the U.S. and EU have imposed sanctions on some Chinese companies, China appears undeterred. Perhaps only stricter financial sanctions will compel China to relent. The U.S. and NATO may have to decide whether publicly weakening China should be part of their strategic objectives alongside undermining Russia.
The U.S. remains the primary supporter of Ukraine militarily, continuing to provide Patriot missiles and other air defense weapons to help Ukraine rebuild its air defenses. European countries will also provide their air defense weapons to minimize losses from Russian missile and drone strikes.
U.S. Hellfire rockets and tactical missiles with a 300 km range have been supplied to Ukraine, enhancing Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities. This puts Russian command centers, airfields, ammunition depots, and other high-value military targets at increased risk, requiring Russian forces to make adjustments and complicating their offensive. Other NATO countries can also provide their own missiles; once the U.S. depletes its stock of tactical missiles, re-equipping with new models with a 500 km range should not be a problem for the Indo-Pacific theater.
The supply of shells remains a focal point, and if the production capacity of 155mm shells cannot be rapidly increased, they may have to consider using more 105mm shells, despite their reduced lethality and challenges in artillery counteroperations. Although difficult, they can be used for defensive operations. The U.S. and NATO’s stock should still be available, with South Korea reportedly having around 3.4 million 105mm artillery shells in storage as its artillery transitions fully to the 155mm caliber, they could potentially loan out 105mm shells once again.
Ukrainian drones have conducted numerous long-range attacks on Russian energy and military facilities within Russia. Ukraine has devised a plan to manufacture a million drones, which are believed to continue supporting frontline operations and launching cross-border attacks on Russia through asymmetric warfare, causing economic losses to Russia and creating security risks within Russia, ultimately aiding in ending the war.
With F-16 fighter jets set to arrive in Ukraine, experts have called for more countries to provide retired F-16s to Ukraine and organize retired pilots to form a voluntary air force, similar to practices during World War II, to engage in combat in Ukraine. If this were to materialize, it would be a significant support for Ukraine.
Currently, Ukraine lacks the conditions to achieve victory with fewer resources; a mobilization order will eventually need to be implemented. Russian forces currently have no withdrawal plans or intentions to negotiate, even claiming to seize the second-largest Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.
In conclusion, Ukraine’s military goal in 2024 should be to stabilize the front lines, halt Russian advancements, and potentially conduct localized counterattacks if conditions permit, with a genuine offensive and a reversal of the battlefield likely having to wait until 2025.