Taiwan Citizens Watch Parliament Alliance (Citizens Watch) held a forum titled “Policy Challenges of Japan’s New Prime Minister and Taiwan’s Strategic Future” in Taipei today (October 12) in collaboration with a supervisory parliamentary organization from Japan, the “Eternal Opposition Party.” Experts were invited to analyze the topics discussed.
Chairman of Citizens Watch, Zeng Jianyuan, stated that the seminar invited the director of “Eternal Opposition Party” in the Japanese parliament and former administrative reform policy advisor to the Abe Cabinet, Hara Eishi, as well as Lee Shih-hui, professor at the School of International Affairs at National Chengchi University, to discuss the policy direction of Japan’s new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the future political situation in Japan, adjustments in Taiwan’s security strategy, and its future outlook. Kishida decided to dissolve the House of Representatives in less than eight days after taking office, setting a record for the shortest period after the post-war period in Japan. Since Taiwan has no precedent for dissolving parliament, the insights of these two speakers are highly anticipated.
Hara Eishi believes that the political donation scandal within the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan in the past weakened the grip of factions on parliament members to some extent, evidenced by the dissolution of factions (except for the Aso faction) and the announcement of a record nine contenders for the party leadership this time. However, upon further examination of the selection between former Mayor Koichi Hiaso and Fumio Kishida, the influence of faction leaders remains significant.
Hara Eishi further states that Fumio Kishida is not part of the mainstream faction within the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan. Although he barely won the presidency by defecting with the support of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the cabinet’s list of appointments indicates the new cabinet’s weakness within the party.
Lee Shih-hui mentioned that Fumio Kishida may be trying to take advantage of the honeymoon period in public opinion after just taking office to dissolve the House of Representatives and take a gamble. However, based on polls conducted by various Japanese media on the new Prime Minister, Kishida’s approval rating is only 51%, the second lowest in nearly twenty years, following closely behind Taro Aso. This serves as a warning signal to the new Japanese leadership.
Both Hara Eishi and Lee Shih-hui believe that although Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has proposed many ambitious policies prior to the lower house elections this year and the upper house elections in July next year, it is unlikely that his political aspirations will be fully realized. To solidify his position, Kishida’s policies are likely to continue along the lines of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s to consolidate consensus.
Hara Eishi noted that in recent years, Japan has shown consistent friendliness towards Taiwan in opinion polls and a growing aversion towards China. Previously serving as Japan’s Defense Minister, Kishida has his own insights into Japan’s security strategy. Despite frequent policy changes since taking office, Kishida’s friendly remarks towards Taiwan in recent years, including visiting to pay respects to former President Lee Teng-hui and meeting with President Lai Ching-te this year, indicate that he should not be labeled with a traditional pro-China tag.
Lee Shih-hui analyzed Japan’s security strategy, stating that Japan is currently facing its largest security crisis since World War II, not only with China but also with North Korea and Russia. Therefore, Kishida has proposed an “Asian NATO” or reforming the Self-Defense Forces into a military, but practically, the new cabinet lacks sufficient political leverage to implement these ambitions. In the short term, the focus will remain on bolstering the Japan-U.S. alliance and strengthening its security under the framework of the “Two, Three, Four, Five” democratic alliances in the Asia-Pacific region.
Regarding Taiwan-Japan relations after the new Japanese Prime Minister took office, Lee Shih-hui believes that the relationship between Taiwan and Japan is stable under three important “chains of strength.” Firstly, both countries are on the first island chain, sharing common interests in security strategies, where Taiwan’s concerns are Japan’s as well, a significant discourse in Japan’s political arena today.
Lee Shih-hui mentioned that secondly, in the supply chain, especially in the semiconductor industry chain, Taiwan plays a critical role, leading to Taiwan-Japan relations gradually becoming detached from China-Japan relations. Lastly, in the democratic chain, both Taiwan and Japan share common values and interests as maritime democratic nations. Nevertheless, the stability of the Japanese government still affects Taiwan-Japan relations to some extent. In conclusion, Kishida’s ability to learn politically and compromise with various countries, parties, and factions will be the key focus.
Hara Eishi believes that the state of Japan’s internal economic development will determine how much political leverage Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has regarding Taiwan, especially considering Japan’s falling behind the U.S., Taiwan, and South Korea in terms of GDP growth over the past two decades. With Kishida’s past inclination towards left-leaning economic policies focusing on redistribution, whether he can deviate from the Abe economic model remains to be observed.