According to the analysis of voting trends released by Gallup on Friday, October 11th, although 40% of voters plan to vote early this year, there is a 15-point difference between the parties.
Based on a Gallup survey of 941 registered American voters from September 16 to 28, when most states had not yet opened early voting. The confidence level is 95%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The survey shows that 46% of Democrats plan to vote early, higher than the 31% of Republicans, with a 15-point difference. Among independents, 43% say they plan to vote before election day.
Gallup notes that since 2004, the trend of early voting has been expanding and broke into double digits in 2012 and 2020. The current trend is close to the 18-point difference in the 2020 election.
There is also a noticeable age divide among voters. The survey shows that around 51% of voters aged 65 and older say they will vote early, higher than the 41% of voters aged 50-64. Voters under 50 have an early voting rate of 34%.
In terms of mail-in voting, according to the latest poll, Democratic voters are more likely to choose this option at 27%, while independent voters are at 22% and Republican voters at 13%.
Approximately 77% of Republican voters say they will vote in person, higher than the 66% of independent voters and 64% of Democratic voters.
Most registered voters (69%) say they will vote in person in this election cycle. Around 21% of voters plan to vote by mail, and 6% of voters are undecided.
Gallup researchers explain that in 2020, 35% of votes were cast by mail.
According to a report by Voice of America on December 2, 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 60% of votes in the 2020 election were cast by mail, putting immense pressure on election authorities and postal services to handle millions of mail-in ballots. Some have claimed that the system is not robust enough and have raised concerns about potential election manipulation.
With less than a month left until election day, the Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s polling index shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump by 2.9 points, with 49.7% to 46.8%.
(Credit: The Hill)