In an unprecedented turn of events before the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia and North Korea have found themselves intertwined in a unique relationship. For Pyongyang, this connection signifies a decreased reliance on China (the CCP), while Moscow obtains much-needed ammunition supplies from North Korea’s arsenal. Recent developments suggest a further expansion of this relationship, which could have a more direct impact on the war in Ukraine.
On October 7, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un sent birthday wishes to Russian President Putin, calling him their “closest comrade.” Kim Jong-un further expressed that the relationship between the two countries would reach new heights. Pyongyang aims to accelerate its efforts to become a nuclear superpower.
Kim Jong-un stated that since Putin’s visit to Pyongyang in June, the relationship between the two countries has become “invincible and eternal.”
Earlier this year, Putin and Kim Jong-un signed an agreement pledging mutual assistance if either country faces aggression. While the exact definition of “aggression” and the nature of “mutual assistance” remain unclear, the deepening ties between Pyongyang and Moscow have raised concerns in the West, as they have significantly provoked and violated international sanctions.
On the 8th, South Korean Defense Minister Kim Long-hyun indicated during a parliamentary hearing that North Korea might dispatch regular troops to the Ukrainian battlefield to support Russia’s invasion. This move is perceived by many as North Korea fulfilling its commitments under the military treaty with Russia.
Currently, Russia is in urgent need of experienced ground combat personnel, a capability that North Korea possesses to meet Russia’s demands.
North Korea’s armed forces consist of 1.28 million personnel, including 1.1 million ground troops comprising various divisions, brigades, artillery units, missile units, as well as specialized forces. The North Korean Navy consists of 60,000 personnel, while the Air Force has 110,000 personnel, including a strategic missile force. With these forces, North Korea ranks fifth globally in military strength, just 200,000 personnel fewer than the figures officially disclosed by Russia. North Korea has a conscription period of 10 years for males and 5 years for females, with a population of approximately 26 million.
These statistics from the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, while estimated, provide a snapshot of North Korea’s actual military capabilities.
If North Korea were to deploy a large number of ground troops to the Ukrainian battlefield to fight alongside Russian forces, it could significantly complicate the situation in Ukraine. There have been reports of North Korean casualties on the Ukrainian frontlines, suggesting a clear trend of North Korean involvement. Given the current casualties among Russian troops, if North Korean soldiers are thrust onto the Ukrainian battlefield, they could potentially serve as cannon fodder for Russian forces, as witnessed with the Wagner Group a year ago.
In contrast, North Korea’s provision of weapons and ammunition to Russia appears to be more concrete. US and South Korean officials have stated that North Korea has transported thousands of containers of weapons and ammunition to aid Russia’s war efforts.
Ukrainian intelligence officials have stated that North Korea has surpassed China and Iran, becoming Russia’s most crucial ally in the war. Last month, Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, expressed that the ammunition provided by North Korea is “indeed a significant concern for us, and so far, we have been helpless against it.” The supplies from North Korea are entering Ukraine through Russian supply lines, and Ukrainian forces will feel the impact within days. Budanov remarked, “Our most significant problem comes from North Korea.”
In recent weeks, Ukrainian forces have launched consecutive attacks on Russian ammunition depots in the border regions of Krasnodar, Tver, and Bryansk. The Tikhoretsk base in Krasnodar is one of Russia’s three main ammunition storage sites, housing a substantial amount of North Korean military supplies.
On the 9th, Ukrainian government officials reported that another major Russian ammunition depot was hit, with explosions spanning from dusk to dawn in the Bryansk region.
Andriy Kovalenko, an official from the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Committee, stated that the warehouse stored supplies from North Korea, including ammunition and anti-aircraft artillery.
Reports from the Russian side confirmed these attacks. It was reported that 24 out of 47 drones launched from Kyiv were intercepted in the Bryansk region overnight. Boryomaz, the governor of the Bryansk region, mentioned that there were no casualties or property damage, but emergency rescue teams had been deployed to the scene.
As Russia faces increasing isolation from the West, it is turning more towards Iran, China, and North Korea. Among the three, North Korea exhibits the most resolute attitude and actions. The setbacks Russia has faced in the Ukrainian conflict seem to have allowed North Korea to feel needed militarily for the first time, resulting in the exchange of weapons and ammunition for hard currency, food, as well as military technology including missiles and nuclear capabilities.
Under stringent international sanctions, both Kim Jong-un and Putin are attempting to establish an alternative network of partners to circumvent or mitigate the impacts of these sanctions, especially concerning North Korea’s potential gains from Russian military technology. Clearly, Russian military technology surpasses that of North Korea’s reverse engineering capabilities.
During Kim Jong-un’s visit to Russia in September last year, Putin pledged to assist North Korea in satellite development. Recent reports suggest that North Korea has commenced the construction of a nuclear-powered submarine. On the 8th, South Korean lawmakers mentioned signs indicating that North Korea has begun constructing its first nuclear-powered submarine. It remains unclear whether this project will possess second-strike nuclear capabilities or be an attack submarine capable of carrying cruise missiles and torpedoes.
Since the comprehensive Russian invasion of Ukraine, there has been speculation that Russia may be providing technical support for North Korea’s nuclear submarine program. However, South Korean intelligence agencies believe that the construction is still in its early stages and that further confirmation is needed to determine whether it is nuclear-powered.
As Russia is now subject to international sanctions due to its invasion of Ukraine, it seemingly disregards further damaging its global image by forming military alliances with internationally sanctioned North Korea. North Korea staunchly opposes the West, making the alignment of the two nations appear natural. This has the potential to play into China’s interests: wearing down Western resources and diverting attention from the Asia-Pacific region.
However, the unique bond between Russia and North Korea is sustained by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Once the conflict ends, this relationship could swiftly collapse. Even if the Putin regime remains in power at that time, contacts with North Korea might diminish. Ultimately, Russia will seek to regain access to the global financial and economic environment, indicating that its commitments to North Korea are likely fragile.