After Iran launched approximately 200 missiles at Israel on October 1st, Israel vowed to retaliate, potentially escalating hostilities between the two countries and even leading to a full-blown war. In the event of a war between Israel and Iran, which side has the stronger military power and is more likely to emerge victorious? Let’s take a look at what military experts have to say about the comparison of military capabilities.
The Global Firepower website, a US military site, released its 2024 global military strength ranking earlier this year. The site evaluates 145 countries based on over 60 indicators including the quantity of military units, financial, logistical capabilities, and geographical location, ultimately assigning a “Power Index” to each country. The lower the “Power Index,” the stronger the conventional combat capabilities.
According to this ranking, Israel is ranked 17th with a “Power Index” of 0.2596, while Iran’s “Power Index” is 0.2269, placing it at 14th, seemingly having a slight advantage.
In terms of population, Israel has 9 million people with 170,000 active-duty military personnel, 465,000 reserve personnel, and 35,000 paramilitary forces. On the other hand, Iran has a population of 87.59 million, with 610,000 active-duty military personnel, 350,000 reserve personnel, and 220,000 paramilitary forces. Iran holds the advantage in terms of manpower.
When looking at the military forces of the three branches – land, sea, and air, Israel’s air force receives higher ratings, while Iran’s army and navy score higher, indicating a certain advantage as well.
However, some analysts argue that a simple comparison of numbers may not provide a complete picture.
According to a report from the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC), Shaan Shaikh, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Missile Defense Project, stated that Israel possesses more advanced military technologies than Iran, including the latest aircraft and modern missiles and bombs.
Shaan Shaikh stated, “Their air defense systems are evidently effective. But perhaps most importantly, Israel also has strong allies, including the United States, as well as allies in Europe and the Middle East.”
While Iran may have more tanks, artillery, armored vehicles, and missiles in quantity compared to Israel, the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London pointed out that Iran has been under international sanctions for decades, resulting in outdated military technology and equipment. Despite having 37,000 air force personnel in Iran, they have only a few dozen combat aircraft, which are quite old.
In contrast, Israel has been supplied with hundreds of fighter jets by the US, including advanced aircraft such as F-15, F-16, and F-35.
Shaan Shaikh mentioned, “This is a significant advantage, especially in the early stages of an Israel-Iran conflict. Iran is still using aircraft that are decades old.”
Furthermore, Israel and Iran are over 1,000 kilometers apart, with Iraq and Jordan in between, making ground combat between the two less likely, and missile attacks are more probable.
A report released in 2021 stated that Iran has the largest number of missiles in the Middle East, numbering in the thousands, while Israel is one of the most technologically advanced countries in terms of missile technology in the region.
Shaan Shaikh stated that in case of a full-scale war outbreak, the initial battles would be conducted through aircraft and missiles, where Israel holds a strong advantage in this aspect.
Afshon Ostovar, Deputy Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, mentioned that although Iran’s missiles may cause losses and casualties in Israel, Iran cannot win the war solely by relying on missiles.
Similarly, Israel cannot solely rely on missiles to win, but they can deploy F-35 fighter jets to launch precise missiles, causing greater losses to Iran.
In terms of air defense capability, Israel boasts advanced multi-layered air defense systems, including the “Iron Dome” that can counter rocket threats, “David’s Sling” for intercepting short-range missiles, and “Arrow-2” and “Arrow-3” for intercepting medium to long-range missiles.
Ostovar noted that some of these air defense systems in Israel are among the most sophisticated in the world. In comparison, Iran only has a few Russian-made S-300 or S-400 air defense systems, which are mainly deployed near nuclear facilities or the residences of top leaders, lacking the defensive capacity compared to Israel.
Regarding nuclear weapons beyond conventional arms, while Iran may be developing nuclear weapons, it is believed that they currently do not possess such mass destruction weapons.
It is widely believed that Israel already possesses nuclear weapons, though the country neither confirms nor denies it.
Ostovar mentioned that they would not use nuclear weapons as a threat. Unless faced with an existential threat, they would not resort to using nuclear weapons.