On Thursday, October 3rd, the port strikes along the East Coast of the United States and the Gulf Coast of Mexico entered their third day, causing long lines of ships at the ports and severely disrupting the supply chain. The shortage of toilet paper in stores across the United States since the strike began has brought back memories of the nightmare of the COVID pandemic era. However, the toilet paper shortage this time is not a direct result of the strike, experts say it is caused by panic buying.
The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) union, with about 45,000 members, began their strike on Tuesday, October 1st, demanding significant pay increases and other conditions. This strike affects ports that handle about half of the nation’s international shipping.
Since the start of the strike, social media has been filled with comments about the shortage of toilet paper. Shelves have been left empty, and there have been reports of bulk buying of paper towels.
“Virginia Walmart’s toilet paper shelves are empty. Toilet paper hoarding 2.0!” a user posted on the social media platform X, with a photo of empty shelves attached.
Another user on X commented, “I hope you have some toilet paper in stock. It has begun. Sam’s Club and Costco are sold out.”
“My husband and I went to Costco tonight. No toilet paper,” another X user posted, mentioning that many people were also buying two or three big packs of paper towels.
Another user on X shared, “In Monmouth County, New Jersey, paper towels at Costco and Target are already running low or sold out.”
People have also been seen stocking up on toilet paper and water in response to the port strikes.
An employee at Costco told me this morning that their toilet paper/paper towels were sold out.”
However, the shortage of toilet paper is not necessarily due to the strike but rather people panic buying in large quantities.
According to The Hill, Arzum Akkas, Associate Professor in Operations and Information Management at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, stated in an interview, “I think the main issue we are going to face is people hoarding… panic-buying.”
Akkas added that she is not concerned about the strike directly affecting toilet paper supply for several reasons. Firstly, most toilet paper is domestically manufactured. Secondly, manufacturers have buffer stocks stored in warehouses.
CNN reports that about 90% of toilet paper in the U.S. is manufactured domestically, with the rest coming from Mexico or Canada, possibly arriving by truck or rail.
The American Forest and Paper Association, representing paper manufacturers, told CNN that they are concerned the port strikes might impact exports to foreign markets rather than imports, potentially leading to an oversupply of toilet paper domestically rather than a shortage.
Flexport, a company managing transportation for various industries, CEO Ryan Peterson agreed with Akkas, attributing the toilet paper shortage primarily to panic buying rather than the strikes themselves.
The port strikes may indeed cause shortages of certain goods, especially perishable items that the U.S. heavily relies on imports for. Bananas are particularly vulnerable as nearly 100% of banana supply is imported, with over half of it passing through ports affected by the strikes according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. Since bananas have a short shelf life, carriers were unable to ship a large quantity of them before the strikes.
Peterson suggested that for many goods, it is too early to predict shortages or price hikes and that the duration of the strikes will be a key factor in determining the impact.
He told The Hill that brands had prepared in advance for this situation, rerouting goods originally intended to travel through the East Coast to the West Coast instead.
“I think it’s just a matter of waiting to see how long the strike lasts, and next week we’ll have a lot more information,” Peterson said.
Walmart has been one of the largest importers in the past year. A Walmart spokesperson told Axios earlier this week that the company had prepared for unexpected disruptions in the supply chain and maintained additional sources to ensure the supply of key products.
John Catsimitidis, Chairman and CEO of United Refining Company and Red Apple Group, expressed concerns to Fox News that if the strikes continue, it could exacerbate inflation, leading to higher food and oil prices.
Chris Swonger, CEO of the Distilled Spirits Council, told Fox Business on Wednesday that the industry relies heavily on the vitality of the U.S. port system and even a day of shutdown would have an impact through the supply chains.
Swonger stated that if the strikes continue for a long time – around a week or weeks, it could eventually impact the industry’s peak selling season during October, November, and December, when customers typically wish to purchase a bottle of special cognac or Scottish whiskey for the holidays.