The situation in the Middle East has seen rapid changes over the past week, with a series of events targeting Hezbollah members, including explosions involving pagers and walkie-talkies, the killing of the head of their missile unit, as well as intensive airstrikes on Friday and Saturday that took out Hezbollah leaders and intelligence network heads. Israel’s sharp intelligence and lightning-fast operations have dealt a significant blow to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
On Saturday (September 28), Hezbollah confirmed that its leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Friday, marking the culmination of a series of attacks by Israel. With this, Israel has eliminated half of Hezbollah’s leadership committee and destroyed the organization’s top military command center.
This attack represents Israel’s most aggressive actions in the past two weeks, with meticulously planned intelligence operations, targeted strikes, and bombings aimed at preventing Hezbollah, a designated terrorist group by the US, from launching attacks into Israel from across the Lebanese border.
Hezbollah, once a powerful Shiite quasi-military organization supported by the Iranian government, has been hit hard by Nasrallah’s death, dealing a significant blow not only to Hezbollah but also to Iran and its network of militia resisting Israel in the Middle East region. Nasrallah’s secretive movements over the years have now been compromised, indicating penetration of Hezbollah by Israeli intelligence.
Days and hours leading up to Nasrallah’s killing, Reuters spoke to several sources from Lebanon, Israel, Iran, and Syria who provided detailed information on Israel’s crippling of Hezbollah, including the disruption of Hezbollah’s supply lines and command structure. All sources requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
An informed source on Israeli thinking revealed less than 24 hours before the attack that Israel had focused its intelligence efforts on Hezbollah for 20 years, targeting Nasrallah when necessary, including the Hezbollah headquarters.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his close circle reportedly approved the attack on Wednesday while Netanyahu was in New York attending the United Nations General Assembly. Nasrallah had been avoiding public appearances since the 2006 war. According to a source familiar with Nasrallah’s security arrangements, he had maintained tight security measures, rarely meeting anyone in person. The successful assassination indicates Hezbollah’s infiltration by Israeli informants.
Amidst escalating tensions, Magnus Ranstorp, a Hezbollah expert at Sweden’s National Defence University, described the strike on Nasrallah as a major blow to Hezbollah and a strategic setback caused by intelligence failures. Ranstorp noted that Israel had precise information about Nasrallah’s whereabouts and acted during a meeting with other commanders.
Israeli military officials reported the killing of eight out of nine senior Hezbollah military commanders, including Nasrallah, in recent days, significantly weakening the core forces of Hezbollah. This recent operation was part of a long-planned and complex strategy designed to disrupt Hezbollah’s capabilities.
Dana Stroul, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Affairs and now a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, described Nasrallah’s death as a major strategic setback for Hezbollah, Iran, and other resistance axis countries. Nasrallah provided guidance and advice for Iran’s next moves, making his demise consequential.
Established in Tehran in 1982, Hezbollah is considered one of the most powerful members of the anti-Israel resistance axis supported by Iran. Prior to the current conflict, Hezbollah was known for having one of the world’s most sophisticated unconventional military forces due to decades of Iranian support. The organization was estimated to possess a stockpile of 150,000 rockets, missiles, and drones by the US.
Before the recent escalation, Hezbollah had an estimated 40,000 fighters and an extensive arsenal along with a tunnel network near the Israeli border. However, in the past ten days, the organization has suffered both material and psychological setbacks.
A source familiar with Hezbollah disclosed that significant weapons shipments had entered Lebanon from Iran over the past year alongside substantial economic aid. Before the recent attacks, a Western diplomat in the Middle East reported that Hezbollah had lost 20%-25% of its missile capabilities in ongoing conflicts.
An Israeli security official disclosed that a substantial portion of Hezbollah’s missile stockpile had been destroyed in recent days, but detailed information was not provided. Israel targeted over a thousand Hezbollah assets in the past few days and has been prepared for over 20 years to prevent rocket attacks by Hezbollah.
Israeli officials claimed that Hezbollah’s missile launches had been limited to a few hundred per day over the past week, indicating a weakened capacity.
Following Nasrallah’s assassination, three Iranian sources stated Iran’s intention to deliver more missiles to Hezbollah, including short to medium-range ballistic missiles like Iran’s Zelzal and upgraded Fateh 110 precise ballistic missiles, as part of preparations for a protracted conflict. However, these sources were unavailable post-Nasrallah’s demise.
While Iran is willing to provide military support, it reportedly prefers not to be directly involved in the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. Historically, Iranian supplies reached Hezbollah through air and sea routes. Last Saturday, Israel warned Beirut airport’s air traffic control department that it would use force if Iranian aircraft landed. Lebanese authorities barred an Iranian plane from entering its airspace upon Israel’s request.
Currently, the aircraft’s contents remain unknown. Iranian security officials stated that with the help of allied armed groups in Iraq and Syria, the overland corridor is the primary route for transporting missiles, components, and drones. However, Israeli surveillance and attacks on truck convoys transporting arms have disrupted this land route, as reported by Syrian military sources. Israeli strikes on Syrian arms depots and supply lines have been heightened this year as part of the preparation for further conflict.
An unnamed source in the region stated that an Israeli drone struck weapons hidden in a Syrian commercial trailer in August. This week, the Israeli military announced airstrikes on unspecified infrastructure used to supply weapons to Hezbollah through the Syria-Lebanon border.
Joseph Votel, a former Lieutenant General who led US forces in the Middle East, highlighted Israel’s ability to intercept any missiles being transported to Hezbollah by Iran over land routes.