The recent explosion incidents involving pagers and walkie-talkies on September 17th and 18th have resulted in at least 26 deaths and thousands injured among the Lebanese militia Hezbollah. The Hezbollah group accused Israel of sabotage actions, sparking concerns that the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel may escalate further. So, what exactly is Hezbollah? Will the latest events trigger a full-scale war in the region?
Hezbollah, founded in Lebanon in 1982 and sponsored by Iran, is a political and military organization composed of Shiite Muslims. Initially a secret group, it was formally announced as Hezbollah in 1985. Its founding purpose is to eliminate Israel and expel Western influence from Lebanon. Its ideology is considered Shiite radicalism, following the Islamic Shiite theology developed by the former Iranian spiritual leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. The name “Hezbollah” was also chosen by Khomeini.
Since 1992, Hezbollah has been participating in national elections in Lebanon, gradually becoming a major political force in the country. Currently, Hezbollah is the largest opposition party in the Lebanese parliament and possesses armed forces comparable to the Lebanese armed forces.
Hezbollah is also known as a “militia” organization in Lebanon, operating independently from the Lebanese armed forces. When Hezbollah launches attacks abroad, it is not considered a “state action” triggering international escalation. Therefore, multiple conflicts and even battles between Hezbollah and Israel have not truly triggered broader wars. Hezbollah is also believed to be the mastermind behind several major attacks targeting American interests in the 1980s.
The organization has been designated as a terrorist organization by Western countries like the United States and the United Kingdom, Israel, and Gulf Arab states. The Arab League designated Hezbollah as a terrorist organization from 2016 to 2024, but revoked this classification in 2024.
China, Russia, North Korea, and Cuba view Hezbollah as a legitimate political party. The U.S. State Department stated that Iran provides the Hezbollah group with “most of the funds, training, weapons, explosives, as well as political, diplomatic, financial, and organizational assistance.” Additionally, Hezbollah also obtains funds from other legal and illegal sources, including smuggling contraband, counterfeit passports, drug trafficking, money laundering, credit card, immigration, and bank fraud.
Hezbollah has repeatedly denied involvement in drug trafficking, stating that all its resources come from Iran.
A former U.S. ambassador to Lebanon described Hezbollah as “Iran’s most successful export of revolution.”
Iran has formed an alliance of radical organizations including Hezbollah, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Since 1992, Hezbollah has been led by Hassan Nasrallah, officially referred to as the “Secretary-General.”
Nasrallah, a Shiite cleric, has played a crucial role in transforming Hezbollah into a significant political and military force. However, he rarely appears in public, reportedly due to fears of assassination by Israel. Nasrallah’s predecessor and one of the founders of Hezbollah, Abbas al-Musawi, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in February 1992.
Nevertheless, Nasrallah delivers televised speeches weekly and is said to be highly respected within Hezbollah.
Hezbollah is one of the world’s best-equipped non-state military forces. Nasrallah claims the organization has 100,000 soldiers. The Israeli military estimates Hezbollah has 20,000 to 25,000 full-time personnel and tens of thousands of reservists.
With funding and equipment from Iran, many of Hezbollah’s armed personnel are well-trained and have extensive combat experience, having participated in the Syrian civil war that started in 2011.
Israeli intelligence agencies state that Hezbollah’s arsenal holds over 70,000 rockets and missiles, including long-range and precision-guided missiles.
The Washington-based think tank CSIS estimates Hezbollah possesses between 120,000 to 200,000 rockets and missiles. Most of its arsenal consists of small, non-guided ground-to-ground artillery rockets, but it also has air defense and anti-ship missiles and missiles capable of striking deep into Israeli territory.
Hezbollah has evolved into the most powerful militia organization in the Middle East and Iran’s most important ally, with combat capabilities surpassing Hamas, another Iran-backed group, in terms of scale, equipment, and combat experience.
Prior to the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Hamas had approximately 30,000 armed personnel in the Gaza Strip. Israel has claimed they have killed around 15,000 Hamas fighters in current conflicts.
Before the conflict, Israel estimated Hamas and other armed groups in the Gaza Strip had about 10,000 short and medium-range rockets.
Hamas falls short in personnel, equipment, and combat experience compared to Hezbollah.
Hezbollah fighters have fought alongside Iranian and Russian forces in the Syrian civil war, helping Syrian President Bashar al-Assad defeat rebels and gaining valuable combat experience.
The alliance with Assad is vital for Hezbollah, as Lebanon has no direct border with Iran, and Syria serves as a crucial route for military supplies from Iran.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah is not only a powerful military force with political influence but also operates an extensive social service network which has solidified its support base amid the country’s severe economic crisis in recent decades.
Since 1990, Hezbollah has been involved in Lebanese politics, a process known as “Lebanonization” of Hezbollah, eventually leading the group to be part of the Lebanese government and political coalitions.
From 2018 to 2022, Hezbollah and its allies held the majority of seats in the Lebanese parliament, representing a significant portion of the Shiite community in the country. Shiite Muslims and Sunni Muslims each make up around 30% of the Lebanese population. Hezbollah also has close ties with the Christian party founded by Lebanon’s former president Michel Aoun.
Before the Syrian civil war began in 2011, Hezbollah portrayed itself as a force dedicated to fighting Israel and defending the oppressed. However, since becoming involved in the Syrian conflict, many Sunni Muslims view Hezbollah as a Shiite organization obedient to Iran in the region.
On October 8, 2023, following unprecedented attacks launched by Hamas militants from Gaza on Israel, which escalated sporadic clashes into a full-blown war, Hezbollah also began firing on Israeli positions to support Hamas.
Subsequently, Hezbollah has been launching missiles, mortars, rockets, and explosive drones towards northern Israel almost daily from the Lebanon border, prompting Israeli counter fire. Reportedly, Hezbollah has fired over 8,000 rockets towards Israeli positions in northern Israel and the Golan Heights, launched anti-tank missiles at Israeli armored vehicles, and attacked Israeli military targets with explosive drones.
The IDF retaliated by carrying out airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, alongside tank and artillery assaults.
The Lebanese Ministry of Health stated that since October 2023, at least 589 Lebanese have been killed. Israel reported that at least 25 civilians and 21 soldiers have died directly due to Hezbollah attacks. Nearly 200,000 people on both sides of the border have been displaced.
The United States has been seeking a diplomatic solution, aiming to calm the tensions through reaching ceasefire agreements in Gaza, releasing Israeli hostages, and pressuring Israel and Hamas to end the conflict, including Hezbollah withdrawing forces from the border and cessation of Israeli military flights over Lebanon. However, Hezbollah has publicly stated that it will not negotiate under any terms if Gaza does not agree to a ceasefire and will not cease hostile actions.
While battles have occurred between Israel and Hezbollah, observers note that both sides have aimed to contain each other’s actions so far, without crossing the threshold into full-scale war. Nevertheless, there are concerns that the situation may spiral out of control.
Over the past eleven months, the Gaza conflict has led to escalating cross-border clashes between Israel and Hezbollah, with recent escalations being more significant.
On July 27th, rocket attacks hit the Golan Heights occupied by Israel, resulting in the deaths of 12 Israeli children. Israel attributed the attack to Hezbollah, though Hezbollah denied involvement.
Israel retaliated swiftly; on July 30th, the IDF announced an airstrike in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, killing senior Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr.
The following day, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran, Iran. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied any involvement in this event.
Since then, the region has been awaiting responses from Hezbollah and Iran, with both countries pledging retaliation against Israel.
Following the pager and walkie-talkie explosion attacks on September 17th and 18th, Hezbollah Secretary-General Nasrallah threatened in a televised speech on the 19th, stating that Israel’s remote detonation of communication devices was equivalent to “declaring war.” However, Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement in the pager and walkie-talkie incidents.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated on September 18th that Israel is in a “new stage” of war with Islamic organizations in the region. He also mentioned that forces will be deployed to the Lebanon border, indicating concerns about the possibility of broader conflict erupting along the Lebanese border.
However, a full-blown war poses risks for Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran alike.
For Israel, all-out conflict with Hezbollah would mean a two-front war. Military actions against Hamas in Gaza have already placed Israel under strain – besides significant financial costs and disrupting Israel’s foreign trade and construction industries, casualties in Gaza have strained Israel’s relationship with its key ally, the United States.
The conflict on the Israel-Lebanon border has led to a large population displacement on both sides, and intensified fighting would only worsen civilian suffering. This would also bring additional international pressure on Israel.
For Hezbollah, there are significant political risks, particularly when Lebanon has been in economic turmoil since the 2019 financial crisis, with nearly three-quarters of the population living in poverty. While Hezbollah has a staunch core support in Lebanon, its involvement in the Syrian civil war has made it many enemies. If the organization is seen as dragging the entire country into a full-scale war with other nations, it may alienate even more people.
For Iran, Hezbollah is seen as a valuable asset in projecting influence in the Middle East and thwarting American interests. Dragging Hezbollah into a prolonged conflict could deplete this asset severely.