During this year’s Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the daily sales area of new homes in 25 representative cities in China decreased by about 29% compared to the same period in 2023, and by 55% compared to 2019.
September and October are traditionally the peak sales season for the real estate market in China, known as the “golden September and silver October.” Data released by the Center for Real Estate Studies on September 18 show that the start of “golden September and silver October” is not looking good, with real estate sales continuing to be sluggish.
According to a report on Caixin’s website on September 18, during the Mid-Autumn Festival, many cities increased their marketing efforts at sales offices, but overall market performance remained subdued despite an increase in visits to core area properties before the holiday. The average daily sales area of new homes in 25 representative cities during the Mid-Autumn Festival was 129,000 square meters, compared to 182,000 square meters during the same period last year.
Prices of second-hand homes are continuing to decline. In the first-tier city of Beijing, second-hand home prices have dropped by about 25% from their peak. Data from the Center for Real Estate Studies shows that during the Mid-Autumn Festival period in Beijing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Foshan, especially in some old and small properties, prices have dropped to meet the expectations of essential home buyers, gradually attracting these buyers to the market.
According to the data released on September 14 by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the national average price of second-hand homes has fallen more sharply than that of new homes.
In August, the sales prices of second-hand homes in first-tier cities decreased by 0.9% compared to the previous month, with drops of 1.0% in Beijing, 0.6% in Shanghai, 0.7% in Guangzhou, and 1.3% in Shenzhen. Second-hand home sales prices in second and third-tier cities decreased by 1.0% and 0.9% respectively, with increases in the rate of decline compared to the previous month.
Year-on-year, in August, the sales prices of second-hand homes in first-tier cities decreased by 9.4%, with drops of 8.5% in Beijing, 5.8% in Shanghai, 12.5% in Guangzhou, and 10.8% in Shenzhen. Second and third-tier cities saw decreases of 8.6% and 8.5% respectively, with larger declines compared to the previous month. The number of cities experiencing price declines is at historically high levels.
Regarding the poor performance of the real estate market during this year’s “golden September and silver October,” Xu Yuejin, Deputy Director of the Center for Real Estate Studies, told Caixin that factors such as stagnant household income expectations and cautious buyer sentiment, combined with reduced supply, are putting pressure on the new home market.
According to the “Basic Situation of the National Real Estate Market from January to August 2024” released by the National Bureau of Statistics on September 14, in the first 8 months of this year, the sales area of newly constructed commercial housing decreased by 18.0% year-on-year to 606.02 million square meters, with residential sales areas down by 20.4%. The sales volume of newly constructed commercial housing was 5.97 trillion yuan, a decrease of 23.6%, with residential sales revenue down by 25.0%.
By the end of August, the area of commercial housing available for sale was 737.83 million square meters, an increase of 13.9% compared to the same period last year. Among them, the area of residential properties for sale increased by 21.5%, remaining at a high level; the sales area of commercial housing was 645.3 million square meters, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year.