U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel to Egypt on Tuesday, marking his 10th visit to the Middle East since the start of the Gaza conflict nearly a year ago. Part of this trip is aimed at finalizing a proposal to be submitted to Israel and Hamas in order to reach a ceasefire agreement and release hostages.
Unlike previous mediation efforts by the top U.S. diplomat, the Biden administration does not hold optimistic expectations for a breakthrough in the troubled negotiations at this moment.
Notably, Blinken has not publicly announced plans to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The intense public statements from Israeli leaders, such as Netanyahu’s declaration of accepting only “decisive victory” when Blinken visited the region last June, along with other uncompromising demands, have made previous diplomatic efforts more complicated.
Blinken will head to Egypt on Wednesday to hold talks with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty and others, with the aim of strengthening U.S.-Egypt relations and discussing the Gaza issue with Egypt.
Months ago, President Biden and his officials openly expressed the expectation of reaching an agreement to end the Gaza conflict and hoped to pressure Netanyahu’s far-right government and Hamas to reach a final accord. Subsequently, diplomatic relations between the United States and the Middle East have slightly eased.
The Biden administration now states that it is working with mediators such as Egypt and Qatar to present a revised final proposal to at least secure a six-week ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, aiming to release some hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. The U.S. believes that openly discussing negotiation details at this point would only harm these efforts.
State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller stated on Monday that U.S., Qatar, and Egyptian officials are still negotiating “what contents the proposal will include… to ensure all parties can reach a final agreement.”
The State Department highlighted Egypt’s crucial role in peace efforts in Gaza, announcing last week that the Biden administration plans to provide Egypt with full military aid worth $1.3 billion, disregarding congressional demands to withhold partial funding if Egypt does not show sufficient progress in human rights. Blinken informed Congress that Egypt has made progress in human rights, including the release of political prisoners.
Blinken’s trip comes at a time when a full-scale new conflict in the Middle East is possible, with Israel threatening more military action against the Lebanese Hezbollah organization. Biden envoy Amos Hochstein stayed in Lebanon on Monday before heading to Israel, attempting to ease the tense situation.
Hezbollah holds one of the strongest military forces in the Middle East and is allied with Iran, similar to Hamas, along with smaller groups in Syria and Iraq.
Since Hamas launched the Gaza conflict on October 7 last year, Hezbollah and Israel have engaged in multiple skirmishes along the northern border where Israel borders Lebanon. Hezbollah has stated that it will decrease these skirmishes only if a ceasefire is in place in Gaza. These clashes have resulted in tens of thousands of civilians displaced on both sides of the border.
An anonymous U.S. official mentioned that Hochstein told Netanyahu and other Israeli officials that escalating conflicts with Hezbollah would not help in the return of Israelis to their homes. He emphasized to Netanyahu that a full-scale war launched by Israel in Lebanon might trigger a broad and enduring regional conflict.
This anonymous official stated that Hochstein also stressed to Israeli officials that the Biden government remains committed to finding a diplomatic solution to the tense situation at the northern Israeli border through either a Gaza agreement or separate actions.
Netanyahu told Hochstein, “Without a fundamental change in the security situation in the north, our residents cannot return home.” The Prime Minister expressed gratitude for and respect for U.S. support but also noted that Israel would take all necessary measures to ensure their security and the safe return of northern residents to their homes.
Meanwhile, the office of Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant stated that during the meeting with Hochstein, Galant warned, “The only way to ensure the return of residents to northern Israeli communities is through military action.”
In Gaza, the U.S. indicated that Israel and Hamas have, in principle, reached an agreement. The biggest obstacles at the moment include disagreements over the details of exchanging hostages and prisoners, as well as control over the buffer zone along the Gaza-Egypt border. Netanyahu has requested in recent weeks to allow the presence of Israeli forces in the Philadelphi corridor, a demand rejected by Egypt and Hamas.
On October 7 last year, Hamas orchestrated attacks on southern Israel resulting in about 1,200 deaths. Militants also abducted 250 people, with around 100 still being held, approximately one-third believed to have died.
The Gaza Health Ministry controlled by Hamas reported that Israel’s offensive in Gaza has caused over 41,000 Palestinian deaths, not distinguishing between civilians and militants. The war has resulted in widespread destruction, displacing most of Gaza’s population and triggering a humanitarian crisis.
Netanyahu stated that he is working to bring the hostages back home. His critics accuse him of delaying a ceasefire agreement, which could potentially lead to the collapse of his hawkish coalition government, including members opposed to a ceasefire with Palestinians.
Earlier this month, when asked if Netanyahu had done enough for a ceasefire agreement, Biden simply said, “No,” but added he still believes an agreement is imminent.
(This article references reports from the Associated Press)