The 11th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, a three-day event, concluded on September 14th with the United States and China holding another round of military policy talks. However, tensions remain delicate as both countries are engaged in global power plays in multiple regions. Experts point out that in response to the upcoming U.S. presidential election, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is employing a dual strategy towards the U.S., with ongoing friction in the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea. The CCP’s positioning in Africa, the evolving threat it poses to the U.S., and the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war are all areas of concern.
During the forum, Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun and Deputy Foreign Minister Chen Xiaodong emphasized “peace” in their speeches, notably steering clear of mentioning the Taiwan issue. Dong Jun’s speech this year refrained from indirectly criticizing the U.S. using terms like “specific country.”
In a previous meeting in 2023, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia stated unequivocally that the CCP military would not tolerate any attempt of Taiwan’s “separation.” Former Chinese Defense Minister Wei Feng, who has since fallen from grace, warned during the 2019 forum that pursuing separatism would only lead to a dead-end. While Dong Jun made threatening remarks in June about the consequences of anyone attempting to split Taiwan from China, his recent rhetoric has shown some softening.
However, reports from various media outlets state that former Deputy Director of the Academy of Military Science of the Chinese PLA, He Lei, cautioned during the meeting on September 12th that the CCP would crush any “foreign hostile forces violating sovereign territory.” He Lei also warned that Taiwan’s leadership relying on the U.S. for security could end up “empty-handed.”
In an interview with Da Ji Yuan, Su Ziyun, Director of the Research Institute for National Defense Strategy and Resources at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Studies, indicated that the recent statements from current Chinese military officials were diplomatic expressions with softened tones. However, internally, there is still tension around so-called red lines, especially after U.S. National Security Advisor Sullivan visited Beijing and met Xi Jinping and Zhang Youxia last month. He believes that the South China Sea issue is currently more heated.
Major General Yu Zongji, former Dean of the School of Political Warfare at the National Defense University of Taiwan, told Da Ji Yuan that overall, during the Xiangshan Forum, the CCP has adopted a more relaxed attitude towards U.S. military matters, partly due to the ongoing U.S. presidential election. With recent anti-China legislation introduced in the U.S. Congress and the focus on China in the debates between Trump and Harris, the CCP aims to avoid further escalation of hostility from both the Democratic and Republican parties during the election process by deliberately adopting a conciliatory posture.
However, Yu Zongji argues that while the CCP appears to ease tensions with the U.S., it maintains a confrontational stance indirectly through interactions with other countries. Figures like He Lei, the former Deputy …