Typhoon “Capricorn” has brought continuous heavy rain in China and Vietnam, leading to flooding in both countries. Rumors blaming Vietnam for releasing water and causing disasters in Guangxi, China have circulated widely on the internet, as the rivers flow through both countries. According to official reports from Vietnam, the Ban Long River, which flows into Vietnam from Yunnan, China, released water from the Malutang Hydropower Station, following consultations between the two sides. However, foreign media outlets have reported Vietnamese officials complaining about China’s water release, to which the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded ambiguously. China has not blocked rumors regarding “Vietnam’s water release” on the mainland internet.
Reports from various media outlets stated that on September 12th, 13 rivers in Guangxi exceeded their alert levels due to the impact of the first flood of 2024 in the upstream Yu River. The water level of the Yong River in Nanning city continued to rise, leading to the highest flood peak since 2001, with water levels nearing the top of the Nanning embankment and causing widespread flooding in urban areas and inundating farmland in rural areas.
Local internet users posted pictures depicting the severity of the flooding in Nanning, with roads and riverbanks submerged, bridges closed, and heritage sites being secured. Vietnamese authorities reported that as of September 12th, Typhoon “Capricorn” and its aftermath had caused 226 deaths and 104 people were missing in Vietnam.
Simultaneously, videos circulating on Chinese social media platforms like Douyin accused Vietnam of releasing water without warning. Some netizens in Guangxi believed that the Left River, flowing into Guangxi from Vietnam, a major tributary of the Yu River, caused flooding in Nanning due to Vietnam’s water release. However, Vietnamese social media posts discussed emergency situations related to dam breaches and called for safety precautions in the face of water releases from Chinese dams.
Public data shows that the main rivers in Nanning belong to the Xijiang River system in the Zhujiang River Basin, with significant rivers including the Yu River, You River, Zuo River, Hongshui River, Wuming River, and Bache River. The Zuo River in northern Vietnam and western Guangxi, China, originates from Guangxi Province in Vietnam, where it joins the You River in Nanning.
The main river involved in the flooding is the Hong River, originating in Dali, Yunnan, flowing through both China and Vietnam (referred to as the Yuan River in the upper Chinese section). The primary tributary of the Hong River, the Tuo River, merges with the Hong River approximately 80 kilometers northwest of the Vietnamese capital, Hanoi.
Vietnamese official media reported that local authorities in the border town of Hekou warned on September 11th that China’s dam release could raise water levels in the Tuo River. Vietnamese officials urged China to strictly control the flow of Red River waters downstream, coordinate reductions or closings of upstream dam floodgates, and notify Vietnam of specific discharge times and amounts.
On September 9th, Vietnamese officials proposed consulting with China to minimize flooding in the Red River basin. Chinese authorities initially stated on September 10th that two upstream dams in the Red River did not have discharge plans and had stopped operations to prevent flooding.
However, Nguyen Hoang Hiep, Deputy Minister of Agriculture in Vietnam, later confirmed that China did release water on September 11th afternoon but claimed that China had notified Vietnam beforehand in writing and that the amount of water discharged was minimal, expecting only minor effects downstream.
Vietnamese authorities expressed concerns about China releasing water into another tributary of the Red River, the Ban Long River. The Ban Long River, originating in Yunnan Province, China, and flowing into Vietnam before joining the Red River, raised fears of flooding along the river in Vietnam.
At a press conference on September 11th, a Reuters reporter asked the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs about Vietnamese officials’ claim that China had not coordinated with Vietnam before releasing water into the Ban Long River, exacerbating flooding along the Red River. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Mao Ning, did not directly address the water release but mentioned that China and Vietnam maintained close communication on flood control cooperation, stating that China was storing floodwaters in hydropower stations along the Yuan-Red River main stream to support Vietnam’s flood control efforts.
Vietnamese state media reported on September 13th that the Malutang Hydropower Station in Yunnan, China, released water into the Ban Long River flowing into Vietnam after consultations between the two sides. It mentioned that “to assist China and Vietnam downstream flood prevention and risk mitigation work, the Malutang Hydropower Station did not release water.” However, recent heavy rainfall led to a rapid rise in water levels at the Malutang Hydropower Station, posing a risk of dam breach.
The report stated that the Chinese side informed the Hunan province authorities that the Malutang dam would release water from 3:00 p.m. on September 11th to 2:00 p.m. on September 12th, with a maximum discharge rate of 250 cubic meters per second. After negotiations, Chinese authorities reduced the discharge rate to 200 cubic meters per second and delayed the release to 4:30 p.m. on September 11th.
Although China enforces strict internet control, as of September 13th, videos, articles, and online comments about the “Vietnamese water release flooding Guangxi” rumor have not been censored on mainland Chinese social media platforms. Discussions around “Vietnamese water release” on Weibo and other platforms remain active.
Additionally, there were rumors circulating that a group of Vietnamese ducks had floated into China amidst the floodwaters. The Chongzuo authorities in Guangxi released a video clarifying that “imported ducks from Vietnam did not float over,” refuting the claims about Vietnamese ducks drifting into Guangxi but did not address the water release issue directly.
Huang Mingde, Assistant Research Fellow at the Institute of Chinese Political-Military and Operational Concepts of the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Studies, who specializes in natural disasters and Chinese diplomacy, stated on September 12th that the abundant rainfall brought by Typhoon “Capricorn” would likely result in regulatory water releases from reservoirs. However, if China fails to notify upstream in advance or if multiple reservoirs simultaneously release water, even with prior notification to Vietnam, it will be challenging to prevent exacerbated flooding downstream.
He pointed out that China’s construction of reservoirs upstream has inevitably led to water resource disputes between upstream and downstream countries, with no immediate resolution in sight.