Recently, Scott B MacDonald, Chief Economist of Smith’s Research and Gradings Department and Researcher at the Caribbean Policy Alliance, wrote an article in the “East Asia Forum” titled “Cuba Becomes a Focus of US-China Competition”. In the article, he pointed out that the Chinese Communist Party is establishing advanced surveillance stations in Cuba, which could escalate tensions between the US and China. Cuba is deepening its relations with China and Russia, causing concern for the United States. With Cuba located less than 150 kilometers from US mainland, it could potentially become a flashpoint for future conflicts.
In early July 2024, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a report strongly suggesting that the Chinese Communist Party is building high-end surveillance stations in Cuba. Both the US government and the Chinese Communist Party have remained silent on the matter, as neither wants a major crisis in Cuba. While the US plays a crucial role in regions like Taiwan and the South China Sea in China’s backyard, China is demonstrating its ability to exert similar influence in Cuba. The more involved China becomes in Cuba, the more complex the geopolitical landscape becomes, further confirming a new Cold War between the US and China, with Cuba potentially becoming a flashpoint.
The historical relationship between China and Cuba is long and complex. Under the leadership of Mao Zedong, the Chinese Communist Party and the Cuban Communist Party led by Castro held strong ideological alignment and hostility towards the US. After Castro came to power in 1959, the regime struggled due to US economic sanctions, leading many economic measures to failure. Despite this, from 1959 to 1989, Cuba’s average annual economic growth rate reached around 4%, largely thanks to assistance from the Soviet Union. By the late 1980s, the Soviet Union was providing Cuba with about $4 billion annually to sustain the economically struggling Cuban regime.
At that time, China was facing multiple challenges, including consolidating its power, the existence of the Republic of China in Taiwan, the aftermath of the Korean War, economic weakness, and tension with its main ally, the Soviet Union.
As the split between China and the Soviet Union intensified in the 1960s and 1970s, Castro’s dependence on Soviet economic aid strained relations with Beijing. It wasn’t until the 1990s that relations between China and Cuba began to thaw. By then, the Soviet Union had collapsed, plunging the Cuban economy into a downturn due to the loss of Soviet aid, while China rapidly emerged as an economic powerhouse.
China’s activities in Cuba are worth monitoring. Both countries are left-wing dictatorships ruled by the Communist Party. Cuba also presents a unique advantage for China with its geographic proximity to the US mainland of less than 150 kilometers. As a result, China’s plan to establish surveillance stations in Cuba has become a sensitive topic in US-China and US-Cuba relations. For US policymakers, China’s relationship with Cuba is seen as a significant threat.
Taiwan, located less than 150 kilometers from mainland China, recently acknowledged that the US has a small amount of troops stationed on its territory, mainly for training purposes. China’s potential military presence in Cuba could similarly pose a strategic threat to the US, endangering critical supply chains, ports, and other facilities in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
Supporting Cuba also has diplomatic benefits. China benefits from Cuba’s support in international forums like the United Nations. In 2020, Cuba represented 45 countries to draft a joint statement supporting China’s actions in Xinjiang. China is also Cuba’s major trading partner, playing a significant role in petrochemicals and infrastructure projects. Additionally, China purchases zinc and nickel from Cuba, materials crucial for global energy transformation. In 2018, China attracted Cuba to join its Belt and Road Initiative.
Furthermore, China has helped the Cuban government strengthen population control. Chinese companies like Huawei, TP-Link, and ZTE have built telecommunications infrastructure in Cuba that the government uses for control. In 2021, faced with economic hardships that sparked widespread protests, the Cuban government employed Chinese technology to shut down the national internet, hindering communication among protesters.
Looking ahead, if US-China relations further deteriorate, China may accelerate its relationship with Cuba, including providing more economic aid and establishing closer military cooperation.
A Reuters report in early July revealed that CSIS, through satellite imagery, discovered that Cuba is constructing a new radar station that may have the capability to monitor the US Guantanamo Bay Naval Base. This upgrade in Cuba’s monitoring capabilities has long been associated with China.
According to a report by CSIS, this previously undisclosed base, under construction since 2021, is located on the eastern side of Santiago, Cuba, near the El Salao community.
CSIS referred to this new site as a “powerful tool” that, once operational, will be able to monitor aerial and naval activities of the US military. The facility is equipped with a circular antenna array with a diameter of approximately 130 to 200 meters, capable of tracking signals up to 3,000 to 8,000 nautical miles away.
The report stated, “Having such an outpost will provide China with a strategically significant vantage point near the US Guantanamo Bay Naval Base.” Guantanamo Bay is a crucial military base of the US, located 45 miles east of Santiago, the second-largest city in Cuba.
According to CSIS’s report, these types of arrays were widely used during the Cold War, but with technological advancements, Russia and the US have decommissioned most facilities. However, the think tank noted that China is actively constructing new similar arrays, including in coral reef outposts in the South China Sea.
Last year, Biden administration officials pointed out that Beijing had been conducting espionage activities in Cuba for years and began enhancing its intelligence collection capabilities there since 2019.
CSIS also highlighted that satellite images from March this year showed that Bejucal, the largest signal intelligence site in Cuba near Havana, had suspicious Chinese intelligence activities over the past decade and underwent “significant upgrades,” described as “evolving missions, clearly defined and distinct.” CSIS stated, “Data collected on military exercises, missile tests, rocket launches, and submarine maneuvers will allow China a more comprehensive understanding of US military actions.”
The report mentioned that some radar systems installed in Cuba in recent years can monitor rocket launches at Cape Canaveral and the NASA Kennedy Space Center, which could be of interest to China as it has been catching up with US space launch technology.
Source: New Era