Just before U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan’s visit to China, a Chinese military Y-9 reconnaissance plane violated Japanese airspace over Kyushu, triggering strong reactions and formal protests from Japan’s political and military circles. Military experts believe that China’s move to test the reactions of the U.S. and Japan through this muscle-flexing exercise comes at a time when the two countries are strengthening military cooperation and approaching elections.
On the morning of August 26, from the direction of mainland China, a Chinese military Y-9 reconnaissance plane intruded into Japanese airspace near the Goto Islands in Nagasaki Prefecture for about 2 minutes. The Japanese Ministry of Defense noted that 2 minutes is a significant duration, allowing the plane to cover several tens of kilometers. This act is seen as intentional to achieve a certain objective.
On the 29th, Chief of Staff of the Japan Joint Staff Yoshihide Yoshida stated in a press conference on the first intrusion of a Chinese reconnaissance plane into Japanese airspace that this is part of China’s military activities expanding and becoming more active in the region, and Japan is closely monitoring the situation.
Yoshihide Yoshida mentioned that in 2012, a Chinese maritime surveillance aircraft violated Japanese airspace around the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture. However, this time, it happened closer to mainland Kyushu. The intent and purpose behind this incident are currently unclear.
Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Studies Director Su Ziyun believes that there’s a political intent behind China’s actions. He stated to Epoch Times that China’s violation of Japanese airspace by a military aircraft is deliberate. “Although this is not the first time, China intentionally used an electronic reconnaissance aircraft this time, testing the waters by briefly entering Japanese airspace, with clear political intentions.”
“Technically, even if China’s reconnaissance aircraft is outside Japanese airspace, it can still collect electronic signals similar to those obtained after intruding into airspace. From a reverse engineering perspective, there isn’t much difference militarily. China’s violation of Japanese airspace is political in nature because there is no military necessity for it,” Su Ziyun said.
The Goto Islands are located in the waters west of Kyushu, Japan, 162 kilometers from Nagasaki City, currently uninhabited. Prior to violating Japanese airspace, the Chinese Y-9 reconnaissance plane flew several circles in the area, continued to do so after the violation, and left towards mainland China around 1:15 PM, approximately an hour and a half later.
During this period, Japanese Self-Defense Force fighter jets were scrambled, and warnings were issued via radio to stay away from Japanese airspace, but the Chinese Y-9 reconnaissance plane still entered Japanese airspace and flew for 2 minutes.
From April to July this year alone, the Japanese Air Self-Defense Force scrambled to intercept Chinese aircraft 177 times, accounting for 73% of total interceptions of foreign aircraft by Japan. On April 1 and August 3, Chinese military aircraft flew through the sky between Japan’s Okinawa and Miyako Islands, following a similar route to this incident but without violating Japanese airspace.
Air Staff Chief of the Japan Self-Defense Forces Hiroaki Uchikura expressed in a press conference that “intrusion into airspace is not only a significant violation of a country’s sovereignty but also a threat to security, which is totally unacceptable.” He emphasized, “China’s military activities in the air are expanding and becoming more active overall. Japan will make comprehensive judgments under relevant laws and regulations and take appropriate measures with strictness and caution.”
Taiwanese veteran media commentator Qi Leyi stated that intruding into another country’s airspace is a sensitive issue, not a technical mistake. He told Epoch Times, “If it’s not politically sanctioned, Chinese pilots would be making a political mistake. The flight paths of Chinese pilots are rigorously planned in advance, including where they can fly and what actions they can take, which is very strict. This is not a technical error but a deliberate political probing.”
Qi Leyi further mentioned that China is testing U.S. and Japan’s reactions by violating Japan’s airspace. Japan’s mere air defense interception and diplomatic protests have proven futile, similar to the balloon incidents dealt with by the U.S. Japan is in a transitional phase and will establish a joint command center; the quicker this transformation occurs, the better.
Su Ziyun believes that China’s move is highly unwise, undoubtedly showcasing the “China threat theory.” He said, “Given the current international context, the strategic backlash against China will increase. The U.S. is playing a big game in Asia, aiming to defend the ‘Han Line’ with its allies. Now, China is sending pawns ‘across the river’ again, and it must be pushed back.”
He added, “Japan is a democratic country, so it will mainly track or accompany the intruder instead of taking the first shot. However, Japan will strongly protest through diplomatic channels. This is the norm for a democratic country. Military force will be considered the last resort until a real large-scale military invasion is confirmed.”
China’s frequent use of the “salami-slicing tactic” to exert pressure in its maritime expansion was discussed. In Japan, Chinese coast guard vessels are often seen patrolling in the disputed waters around the Senkaku Islands and frequently intruding into Japan’s claimed territorial waters. Similarly, Chinese warships and drones are active around Kyushu in Japan.
Japan views China’s violation of its airspace as an escalation of activities in the East China Sea. Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara referred to it as a “significant violation of sovereignty” and stressed that Japan will remain vigilant and take measures to safeguard its airspace.
Japanese Foreign Ministry officials indicated that China’s aircraft intruding into Japanese airspace for 2 minutes, despite prior warnings, could be a test to observe Japan’s response.
In recent years, China’s expansionist and hegemonic actions in the waters around Taiwan, the East China Sea, and the South China Sea have intensified. To counter China’s hegemonic actions, the U.S. has enhanced military cooperation with Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, India, and Taiwan, and has decided to formally establish a defense joint command with Japan. These measures, especially the high level of military cooperation between the U.S. and Japan, will effectively restrain China’s expansionist ambitions.
Su Ziyun believes that in this situation, Beijing is deliberately sending a signal to Tokyo, attempting to weaken U.S.-Japan security agreements strategically and test Japan’s and, particularly, the U.S.’s responses. “Now that the U.S.-Japan security agreements have been upgraded and adjusted, leading to the establishment of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Japan and Japan’s creation of a joint command center, this will become the new norm. Therefore, China wants to probe whether the U.S.-Japan alliance will strongly counter China’s intrusions during this transitional phase. This is crucial. If the counteractions are not resolute enough, China will continue to escalate its provocations.”
Currently, as the U.S. election reaches a critical stage, China deliberately intruded into Japanese airspace just three days before Sullivan’s visit to China, aiming to pressure the U.S. and test its stance and attitude. In Japan, Fumio Kishida is set to step down as the Liberal Democratic Party leader at the end of September, and a new leader will be elected by the party before the end of September and will become the new Prime Minister of Japan.
Su Ziyun believes that China is flexing its muscles towards Japan at this moment, possibly to intimidate Japan and influence its upcoming elections.