On August 30, 2024, as the term of President Biden in the United States is coming to a close with just over 4 months remaining, Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor to the President, visited Beijing and met with top Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leaders, including CCP leader Xi Jinping. The information released during Sullivan’s visit has become a focus of attention from various parties.
During his last day in China on August 29, Sullivan met consecutively with Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the CCP, and Xi Jinping, who is the Chairman of the Central Military Commission. Sullivan met with Xi Jinping in the Great Hall of the People and engaged in about an hour-long discussion.
During the meeting, Sullivan reiterated the Biden administration’s commitment to preventing the shift from competition between the U.S. and China to conflict or confrontation. According to the White House statement, “The meeting is part of continued efforts to maintain communication channels and responsibly manage U.S.-China relations.” The official Xinhua News Agency of the CCP emphasized once again the importance for the U.S. and China to “move towards each other” while standing “together with China.”
Su Ziyun, Director of the Strategic and Resource Institute for National Defense Security in Taiwan, told Dajiyuan, “Sullivan has multiple purposes, with international affairs communication being primarily important, especially considering the ongoing conflicts including the Russia-Ukraine war, the Syria conflict, as well as issues in the South China Sea and East China Sea.”
However, he believes that “with Xi Jinping meeting Sullivan before the U.S. election, expressing goodwill, it indirectly suggests that Beijing may be more favorable towards the Democratic Party camp.”
Feng Chongyi, Associate Professor at the University of Technology Sydney, also believes that some of Sullivan’s key topics are about managing international situations, such as “not escalating conflicts with China, not escalating China’s support for Russia. During this period, as long as international situations remain stable, it would be a plus for the Democratic Party.”
Regarding the future development of Sino-U.S. relations, Su Zi Yun said, “I think the status quo will be maintained. China hopes that the U.S. will reduce restrictions on technology, but these matters are not expected to change significantly before the U.S. elections and the formation of a new government.”
“If a new government is formed, and if it continues to be the Democratic Party led by Kamala Harris, there may be some tactical adjustments regarding technology and economic regulations, but there will not be major changes.”
At a press conference after the conclusion of his visit to China, Sullivan stated that he informed Beijing that Kamala Harris has always been a “core member” of Biden’s foreign policy team, and she “supports” Biden’s views.
The core of the Biden-Harris administration’s foreign policy towards China is the “Small Courtyard High Wall” strategy. The “Small Courtyard High Wall” strategy towards China has been incorporated into the Democratic Party’s platform. However, many analysts who agree with former President and current Republican candidate Trump believe that this strategy is too weak in the face of China’s increasingly strong diplomatic policies.
On the last day of Sullivan’s visit to China, another important meeting took place at the location of the Central Military Commission of the CCP, the “Bayi Building,” where Sullivan met with Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the CCP. This was the first meeting between a U.S. National Security Advisor and a Vice Chairman of the CCP’s Military Commission in eight years. Zhang Youxia stated, “Your (Sullivan) request to meet with me shows the U.S. government’s emphasis on military security and U.S.-China military relations.”
As a second-generation red, Zhang Youxia, who has a close relationship with Xi Jinping, is considered a key figure in the top leadership of the CCP, with real power. Wang He, a China expert, said that with the inclusion of Zhang Youxia in this round of strategic communication between the U.S. and China, the key point here is Sullivan’s meeting with Zhang Youxia. “Why does Sullivan want to meet with Zhang Youxia?”
Chen Bingda, a professor of diplomacy at the University of Political Science in Taiwan, told Dajiyuan, “These military dialogues may be about AI automation weapons, AI management, the development of automated weapons. It also involves regional situation communication, where both sides may not agree on each other’s views on regional stability, but there seems to be consensus on reducing conflicts and misunderstandings between them.”
“If the so-called Theater Commander regional leaders do meet in the future, I believe it will be positively helpful in preventing both sides from escalating into military conflicts,” he added.
Su Zi Yun believes that “at the very least, meeting indicates that both sides have managed to control the possibility of accidental hot wars, which means that meeting is better than not meeting at all.”
In recent times, the CCP has been provoking in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, raising the possibility of military conflict between the U.S. and China. Avoiding military conflicts between the two countries is seen as a top priority during Sullivan’s visit to China.
At a press conference following the conclusion of his visit, Sullivan revealed that during his meeting with Zhang Youxia, he clarified the U.S.’s intentions and concerns on a series of sensitive military issues while also listening to the Chinese perspective. Topics discussed included the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, and CCP cyber-attacks.
Wang He said, “Sullivan’s ability to meet with Zhang Youxia indicates significant adjustments in China’s policies towards America, including holding military-level talks between the U.S. and China, showing a certain degree of compromise towards the U.S.”
According to a statement released by the White House, Sullivan emphasized that both countries have a responsibility to prevent competition from escalating into conflict or confrontation. Both countries plan to hold a call between the military theater commanders in the near future.
When Nancy Pelosi, then-speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visited Taiwan in 2022, the CCP protested by announcing the suspension of military communication channels between the U.S. and China.
The U.S. Indo-Pacific Commanders have not had a conversation with their counterparts in the CCP’s Eastern and Southern Theater Commands. The Eastern Theater Command is responsible for operations around the Taiwan Strait, while the Southern Theater Command oversees the South China Sea, both regions seen as potential triggers for direct military conflicts between the U.S. and China.
In addition, Wang He believes that Sullivan’s mentioning to meet with Zhang Youxia may have another purpose, which is for Biden to understand the internal situation and trends of the CCP.
“With the Third Plenum in July and rumors of the Beidaihe meeting having many speculations and strange occurrences, Xi Jinping also disappeared from public view for a while. What’s happening within the CCP? Will there be significant policy changes within the CCP? The Biden administration needs to understand the situation through high-level contacts to make judgments,” he said.
During his three-day visit to China, Sullivan met separately with Wang Yi, Chinese Foreign Minister, Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the CCP’s Central Military Commission, and Xi Jinping, CCP leader to discuss issues such as the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, military competition, trade sanctions, the Russia-Ukraine war, regional drug security, among others. Sullivan stated during a post-visit press conference that the discussions were intense, with differences remaining.
Su Zi Yun stated, “There will be no specific outcomes from both sides, just a reaffirmation of positions and mutual understanding. That was the tone of the entire conversation.”
Chen Bingda believes that there is still a lack of consensus on many issues between both sides. “As it stands now, this indicates that Sino-U.S. relations will move towards more secret negotiations, referred to as Secret Diplomacy. We may see fewer public statements from both sides regarding their relationship. For example, what specific issues did officials from both sides talk about, what kind of consensus was reached.”
Currently, Chinese state media is highlighting the achievements Beijing has made in Sullivan’s visit to China. Taipei-based foreign affairs scholar Huang Kuibo cited that the Taiwan issue is a red line in U.S.-China relations from Beijing’s perspective, repeatedly demanding the U.S. to state that they “do not support Taiwan independence.” As long as Sullivan did not directly refute such positions during his meeting with Wang Yi, Beijing will naturally take it as the U.S. accepting China’s views and will incorporate it in news releases.
Su Zi Yun expressed, “Chinese official reports tend to be exaggerated, and they would forcefully insert their observations into the dialogue of the U.S. officials. However, the international community understands that this is just the typical propaganda from the CCP.”