The Chinese Communist regime is rapidly expanding its nuclear capabilities and related alliance activities.
According to a report on the Navy Times website on August 21, the most advanced non-nuclear submarine of the Chinese Communist military has been launched. Since at least March, the Chinese Rocket Force has had hypersonic missiles capable of launching nuclear weapons at targets within the United States. The Rocket Force is building and equipping a large number of nuclear missile launch silos in northwestern provinces of China.
Beijing is not only spreading this weapon technology to the United States’ adversaries – Russia, Iran, and North Korea – but also to at least one key ally of the United States, Saudi Arabia, making defense for the US and its allies more complex. Beijing is keen on integrating multiple US allies into its economic and military alliance framework.
These Chinese Communist Party (CCP)-led or dominated international organizations, alliances, and Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) – including numerous bilateral agreements, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – collectively referred to as the “China Axis.”
While the CCP is trying to bring countries around the world into its axis, it is also demanding Washington to reduce the potency of the US nuclear deterrent – canceling the “nuclear umbrella” for allies, endorsing a “no-first-use” nuclear weapon policy, and halting the sharing of military technology with allies like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the UK. Accepting these concessions would weaken US deterrence against Beijing and Moscow, not only emboldening their provocations against Taiwan and aggression towards Ukraine but also affecting Europe and Asia.
The core countries of the “China Axis” – including Russia, Iran, and North Korea – are increasing their nuclear deterrence, conventional military actions, and hostage-taking efforts. As a result, the “Pax Americana” is rapidly deteriorating under American rule, with Beijing making unreasonable demands, supporting ongoing violence in Ukraine and Israel. This has led analysts in Washington to shift from seeking nuclear arms control to supporting an increase in the quantity and quality of nuclear weapons, heading towards another nuclear arms race. Given the nuclear threats posed by axis countries to the US and the free world, this shift is entirely justified.
As the leader of the “China Axis,” the CCP naturally becomes the focus of American nuclear deterrence. In March, President Joe Biden reconfigured the US nuclear deterrence strategy, with a focus on China. The new US strategy aims to thwart multiple nuclear-armed adversaries from coordinating attacks simultaneously, including not only China but also Russia and North Korea.
Former President Donald Trump took measures to address this risk, including promoting the Iron Dome missile defense system in the US, similar to the system successfully defending against Iran and its proxies in Israel. Since July, the US Iron Dome missile defense system has been officially integrated into the Republican Party’s platform. In the 1980s under President Ronald Reagan, the US proposed the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), also known as the Star Wars program, which not only acted as a defensive shield but also had the ability to conduct a first strike on Soviet nuclear weapons as a deterrent against a second strike.
The threat of using an offensive SDI helped bring Moscow to the negotiating table, ultimately leading to the dissolution of the former Soviet Union, a fate that the CCP vows not to follow.
Biden’s new nuclear strategy will focus on China, in alignment with Trump’s “Iron Dome” initiative, which can simultaneously deter war risks with multiple axis countries and compel Beijing and Moscow to abandon their more aggressive tendencies that could plunge the world into a vortex of nuclear proliferation.
For example, two senior member countries of the “China Axis” – China and Russia – may utilize North Korea or Iran (if its nuclear capabilities are enhanced) to launch multiple nuclear strikes on major US cities. In July of this year, North Korea test-fired a nuclear missile capable of carrying multiple warheads. If North Korea were to use this missile against US cities, China and Russia could provide air defense capabilities to shield North Korea from US nuclear retaliation.
Under such circumstances, a US economic downturn could weaken the tax base, while government expenditure aimed at rebuilding the economy could be compromised. With the diminishing influence of the US dollar, the US government’s borrowing capacity in international capital markets would decline, exacerbating inflation. As a result, the US may be forced to withdraw troops from frontlines in Europe and Asia, without the offshore balancer role played by the US, Moscow and Beijing may declare and begin to rule continents as their spheres of influence.
The risk of a nuclear war sparked by the “China Axis” would also bring severe environmental risks. Trump expressed his concern about the climate effects caused by a nuclear war in an interview with Elon Musk on August 12, stating, “China currently has far fewer nuclear weapons than we do, but they will catch up with us faster than people imagine.”
Trump emphasized his special concern about the climate impact of a nuclear war, which he has mentioned multiple times in discussions of nuclear proliferation. He was likely referring to the adverse consequences on the environment caused by a large-scale nuclear war. In the 1980s, similar concerns were raised about a “nuclear winter,” with scientists warning that a large amount of smoke and nuclear fallout could block sunlight, leading to radiation sickness and potentially causing extinction for humans and other forms of life.
Beijing and Moscow may believe that public fears in democratic countries about the aforementioned issues may cause us to retreat first in a nuclear deterrence scenario. Xi Jinping and Putin have taken more overt brinkmanship policies, disregarding nuclear arms control by deploying nuclear-capable bombers to fly near Alaska and linking cooperation with Washington to concessions on life-and-death issues for the US and its allies.
For instance, in exchange for more safeguards against nuclear proliferation, China hopes the US will cease arms sales to Taiwan and abandon the nuclear linchpin of our alliance system. Beijing pressured the Biden administration to drop the new US nuclear strategy aimed at containing the “China Axis.” In July, China suspended participation in nuclear arms control negotiations with the US, a move described by an arms control expert as “unforgivable.” The reason for the suspension was US arming Taiwan, which Beijing equates to a nuclear threat against the US.
Since the end of World War II, the world has maintained a “Pax Americana” without the use of nuclear weapons, but centrifugal forces from the China Axis countries are starting to disrupt this peace. It is only natural for the US to take action to strengthen our nuclear deterrence and defend peace. Enhancing economic and conventional strength is equally crucial for defending our territories and allies, as seen in Ukraine today.
Both major US political parties and many allies have good ideas for better safeguarding peace. This is crucial because we need everyone to work together to achieve the greatest goal of the US in the last century.
*Author Bio:
Anders Corr holds a Bachelor’s and Master’s degree in Political Science from Yale University (2001) and a PhD in Government from Harvard University (2008). He is the founder of Corr Analytics Inc. and the publisher of the Journal of Political Risk. He has conducted extensive research in North America, Europe, and Asia and authored books such as The Concentration of Power (2021) and Great Powers, Grand Strategies.