On August 21, 2024, Chinese Coast Guard ships once again gathered in the waters south of Kinmen, but were driven away by the Taiwan Coast Guard. This was following an incident where a Chinese fishing boat was rammed and sunk, prompting China to launch a “maritime law enforcement operation.” Experts analyzed that China continues to expand its gray-zone enforcement against Taiwan. Taiwan should take countermeasures, draw red lines, and engage in cross-domain cooperation with multiple countries to counter China’s gray-zone strategy with a “transparent strategy.”
The summer fishing moratorium in China ended entering its sixth day. Today, the Taiwan Coast Guard detected four Chinese Coast Guard ships gathering in the waters south of Kinmen on two occasions.
The Taiwan Coast Guard stated that at 2:50 p.m. today, the same four Chinese Coast Guard ships with identical numbers re-entered the waters off Kinmen in the same manner. The Coast Guard immediately directed four patrol boats to respond, broadcasting warnings and conducting evidence searches in both Mandarin and English. Subsequently, the Chinese Coast Guard ships left the restricted waters at 11 a.m. and 5 p.m.
Last Saturday (17th), a Chinese fishing boat was rammed and sank near Dongqing Island in Kinmen, resulting in 1 death and 3 missing. Following this incident, China immediately launched a “Taiwan Strait maritime law enforcement operation” from August 17 to 18, not only crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait but also expanding the patrol range with an increased duration.
China’s actions have raised concerns within Taiwan about China’s continued expansion of gray-zone enforcement against Taiwan.
Former dean of the College of Political Warfare at the National Defense University of Taiwan, General Yu Zongji, stated, “We must understand that China’s use of this gray strategy to harass Taiwan essentially means that China does not want this ‘gray zone’ to immediately lead to the consequences of war. Its motivation is to continuously create conflicts to bring about changes and turn the Taiwan Strait into internal waters. Another goal is to create excuses for future military invasions.”
Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party legislators recently accused China of using its citizens’ accident on August 17 outside Kinmen to launch a “patrol law enforcement operation” in the Taiwan Strait.
The term “gray zone” is often used interchangeably with “hybrid warfare” and generally refers to some countries using various non-military means to achieve their policy goals. These actions are mostly non-warfare military operations that pose a threat to the interests of the target country.
General Yu Zongji further explained that to achieve these goals, China must rely on media coverage to amplify the effects, inducing fear of war among the people of Taiwan. It also shapes a sense of helplessness in dealing with constant harassment and challenges the governance capacity of the Taiwan government.
How should Taiwan respond to this situation? General Yu suggested that many strategic scholars continually advise the Taiwanese government to limit the scope of conflict reporting in the Taiwan Strait’s gray zone. Only when the conflict has the potential to alter the status quo or lead to military invasion should assertive countermeasures be taken decisively, with extensive media coverage following suit.
“In other words, drawing clear red lines, and unless crossed, do not allow China to manipulate the media,” General Yu stated.
Drawing examples from Japan, South Korea, and the United States media, General Yu explained that as long as their vessels do not enter China’s territorial waters or air space, these countries’ media outlets usually do not report the incidents.
General Yu emphasized the importance of adopting a restrained but firm stance in response to China’s provocations in the gray zone. By adhering to international laws and rules, Taiwan can establish a sustainable approach that maintains its sovereignty and principles.
Taiwan’s Gold, Silver, and Matsu Coast Guard Administration on the 18th stated that it had taken preemptive measures due to the end of China’s fishing moratorium to prevent Chinese vessels from potentially crossing into sensitive waters.
Beijing has also declared that “Taiwan Shoal” is within its patrol range and included waters near Matsu in its patrol scope. Regarding this, Su Ziyun pointed out that this indirect expansion of China’s jurisdiction to the median line of the Taiwan Strait aims to turn the Taiwan Strait into a “seminal sea,” intending to eliminate the jurisdictional gap in the Taiwan Strait.
Su Ziyun stated, “According to maritime law, the Taiwan Strait cannot be an internal sea. China is attempting to erode Taiwan’s jurisdiction and sovereignty over the Taiwan Strait through such ‘smuggling’ and ‘sausage-cutting’ methods.”
General Yu went on to discuss how Western democratic countries often fear that accidental conflicts may escalate into warfare, leading them to exercise extreme restraint. This restraint benefits the adversary employing gray-zone strategies, as fear of war may lead to compromises that fulfill their aims. The strategic use of gray-zone tactics can exploit this fear of conflict to achieve their objectives.
Referring to the 1999 incident where the U.S. mistakenly bombed the Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia and the 2001 EP-3 incident, General Yu emphasized that despite casualties, these incidents did not escalate into warfare. Many strategic experts believe that for China, there are no accidental wars unless they are intentionally manufactured as a pretext for military invasion. Otherwise, any conflict can be properly resolved.
Therefore, General Yu stressed the importance of adopting a bottom line approach when facing China’s gray-zone provocations.
By citing NATO members Sweden and Finland, Su Ziyun explained that even when facing Russian incursions into their airspace, they deploy aircraft for surveillance and expulsion, followed by strong diplomatic protests. Similarly, Japan refrains from direct confrontation when Chinese official vessels enter disputed waters, instead opting for diplomatic means to express their government’s stance. In cases of Russian and Chinese bomber approaches near U.S. airspace, a rational approach is taken. This exemplifies the normalcy in how democratic countries handle conflicts without resorting to the immediate use of force.
According to a report by Voice of America, many experts are urging Taiwan, heavily affected by Chinese intrusions, to learn from the Philippines and resist China’s oppression and threats in the gray zone with an “active and transparent information” approach.
General Yu also concurred with this view, advocating for the use of a “transparent strategy” to counter the ambiguous tactics deployed by China in the gray zone. Transparency involves equipping devices for recording and gathering evidence, utilizing satellites for real-time transmission of footage.
Reuters reported that on August 8, China fired flares at a Philippine Air Force patrol aircraft over the Huangyan Island, affecting the aircraft’s safety. Philippine President Max also criticized China’s actions as “unreasonable, illegal, and reckless.”
General Yu explained that when the world witnesses such provocative actions by China, actions speak louder than words. This represents how a “transparent strategy” is an extremely effective method to confront China’s gray-zone strategies. Hesitating to adopt a transparent approach could allow China’s extensive media influence to distort facts and shift all responsibilities onto others.
Furthermore, General Yu proposed that Taiwan should establish cross-domain multilateral cooperation with countries like the Philippines, South Korea, and Japan. Under the coordination efforts of the United States, Taiwan can sign maritime mutual assistance agreements with these countries, including mechanisms for mutual assistance in the gray zone, such as a “maritime perception real-time notification mechanism” for swift information sharing. This entails sharing China’s current pressures on Taiwan among member states and condemning China’s actions collectively.
“In essence, if China harasses any country with such gray-zone provocations, all nations should collectively counter and condemn them,” General Yu underscored.
General Yu believes that this concept aligns with what American and Western academia has been advocating – establishing a concept akin to an Asian NATO, which may gradually stimulate the First Island Chain countries to adopt a similar collective defense and response mechanism or a so-called cross-domain deterrence. Only when such a mechanism is in place can China’s gray-zone harassment truly be countered.