According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll analysis, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has garnered more support among African American voters than President Joe Biden did during his campaign, while Republican Donald Trump has seen a slight increase in support among white voters in recent months.
Since May, Reuters/Ipsos has conducted seven national polls, collecting over 10,000 responses, revealing both the strengths and weaknesses of Kamala Harris.
In the July poll, around 70% of African American voters chose Kamala Harris over Trump, higher than the 59% who supported Biden in May and June polls. Trump’s support among African American voters has also increased slightly from 9% in May and June to 12% in July.
Meanwhile, support for Trump among white voters has been on the rise. In the July poll, approximately 50% chose Trump, up from 46% in May and June. Kamala Harris received support from 38% of white voters in July, compared to 36% in May and June.
In last month’s poll, Kamala Harris and Trump were tied at 43% support each, indicating a close race.
According to Pew Research Center data, white voters constitute the largest racial group, making up 72% of the electorate in the 2020 election, although their proportion has sharply declined in recent decades.
African American voters represented only 11% of the total electorate that year, but they are a crucial part of the Democratic coalition and could play a significant role in this year’s election.
Terrance Woodbury, a Democratic pollster specializing in outreach to minority voters, stated that Kamala Harris needs overwhelming support from African American voters to offset her weaknesses among white voters, especially white males and seniors.
According to Pew Research Center exit poll analysis, Biden won 92% of the African American vote in 2020, while Trump won 55% of the white vote.
Kamala Harris may attract more previously undecided African American voters. In July, about 19% of registered African American voters said they had not yet decided, might choose a third-party candidate, or might not vote at all, lower than the 31% in May and June.
If Kamala Harris can defeat Trump in the November 5th election, she will become the first female elected president and the first president of Asian descent in the United States. Kamala Harris has Indian and Jamaican heritage and has long been recognized as both Black and Asian.
Former President Trump is still working to gain greater support from African American voters. On June 15th, Trump visited the New Spirit Revival Center church in Detroit for a community roundtable meeting and launched the “Black Americans for Trump” initiative to rally support among African American voters by mobilizing various forces in Detroit like elected officials, athletes, entertainers, community leaders, and pastors.
A May poll by The New York Times/Siena College in six battleground states found that 23% of African American voters intend to vote for former President Trump.
An April poll by The Wall Street Journal in seven swing states found that 30% of African American voters “definitely or might vote” for Trump, while nationwide in 2020, only 12% of African American men supported Trump, indicating that support for Trump among African Americans has nearly doubled.
(Reference: Reuters)