During this summer in Henan Province, a major agricultural province in central China, there has been a drastic shift from extreme drought to severe flooding, from combating drought to combating floods, all within a short month. The increasingly frequent occurrence of combined droughts and floods in China each year has significantly impacted the food security of its people. Despite the Chinese Communist authorities talking about flood prevention and drought resistance, the measures they propose have not been able to ensure achieving this goal.
In June, as temperatures soared in Henan Province, farmers had harvested their summer crops and planted autumn crops, but a timely rain had not arrived. In order to save their crops, they even resorted to renting wells to irrigate their fields. By June 12, a total of 3.23 million mu of land in Henan Province had been affected by the drought.
Just one month later, on July 14, heavy rain hit regions like Nanyang, Xuchang, Luohe, Zhoukou, and Shangqiu in Henan, with precipitation reaching 300-600 millimeters, causing rivers and ditches to overflow. At least 726,000 mu of farmland was flooded, and over 100,000 people had to evacuate their homes. In the hardest-hit areas of Nanyang City, some regions received over 600 millimeters of rainfall within 24 hours, equivalent to three-quarters of the normal annual precipitation.
From extreme drought to severe flooding, from combating drought to combating floods, all in just one month. Some farmers struggled to save their corn, watering it three times with great effort, only to see it all washed away in just three days. Meteorologists refer to this rare weather phenomenon as “swift transition from drought to flood.”
In the most severely affected areas, homes were destroyed, lands were flooded, livestock swept away, crops soaked, and all hopes dashed. Even in less affected areas, farmers were faced with extensive crop losses or reduced yields.
In Nanyang, Henan, Ms. Jiang described to a Chinese Epoch Times reporter that heavy rain started in mid-July, flooding many areas. She mentioned that Sheqi County and Tanghe County were among the affected areas, with houses being flooded up to the first floor, and electrical appliances being damaged. The roads were all covered in water, and some people were washed away and stranded on trees, awaiting rescue.
“During the heavy rain, I stayed at home and didn’t go out. At night, I was so scared that I couldn’t sleep, fearing the water would flood into the house,” Ms. Jiang said.
Ms. Jiang mentioned that before the flooding, the farmlands were planted with autumn crops like corn, peanuts, and sesame. With the rain stopping for a few days now and the sun out, the floodwaters had receded. However, the crops had all toppled over, and those in low-lying areas had perished.
“Once a crop is flooded, it is a complete loss. Because it is already midsummer, there’s no time to plant other crops. Personally, I am worried about not having a harvest, then what will we eat? For those who cannot work outside as migrant laborers, their entire income comes from farming. Without the crops, their income is zero,” she expressed.
Mr. Li from Xinyang, Henan, mentioned that the weather this year had been abnormal, with severe droughts causing the rice seedlings to wither in June. The pond in the village had dried up, with cracks visible on the pond bed. It was as if they were experiencing the severe droughts seen in the TV dramas set during the end of the Yuan dynasty, which was terrifying.
“We barely managed to save the rice seedlings, and then suddenly heavy rain arrived. The rain poured down mercilessly, causing severe flooding. Now we have to drain the water out of the rice fields. If we don’t, the crops will drown,” he explained.
“The climate this year does not follow the natural growth patterns. The grain prices are already very low. Even if the harvest is good (in terms of cost-benefit), it is still at a standstill. If the harvest is poor, how can people survive?” Mr. Li added.
The tale of combined droughts and floods is playing out across China. In June, mainland China faced droughts and heatwaves from the northwest to the east, threatening both crops already planted and those yet to be sown.
By July, the national meteorological department reported that 10 provinces had entered a state of emergency flood warning, with more heavy rain expected in the coming days.
Several Chinese provinces have suffered from severe flooding and landslides, leading to tens of thousands of evacuations, blockage of roads, and destruction of houses and crops. A recent incident in Shaanxi Province resulted in the collapse of a bridge following flash floods and heavy rain, leading to at least 15 deaths.
The Chinese government’s Emergency Management Department reported on July 12 that natural disasters this year had caused nearly 13 billion US dollars in direct economic losses, affecting 32 million people.
The increasing frequency of combined droughts and floods in China each year has significantly impacted the food security of its people. Climate scientists have issued stern warnings, labeling mainland China as the globe’s “most severely affected hotspot” by climate change.
The North China Plain is a major grain-producing region in mainland China, primarily cultivating winter wheat. Henan Province alone accounts for one-third of the country’s wheat production; the summer season is crucial for planting summer corn, soybeans, and rice seedlings.
In late May 2023, heavy rainfall resulted in severe flooding in Henan Province, causing significant damage to wheat crops, the most substantial in nearly a decade. Authorities began feverishly purchasing wheat internationally, leading to record high import volumes.
The northeastern provinces, collectively referred to as the “Three Northeast Provinces,” are also vital granaries in China. The grain production, including soybeans, corn, and rice, accounts for over one-fifth of the national total production.
Since late July 2021, when Typhoon “In-Fa” brought heavy rains to northern China, severe flood disasters struck the major grain-producing regions in the northeast, with Shangzhi City in Heilongjiang Province experiencing the most serious rainfall in over sixty years, resulting in over 42,575 hectares of crops destroyed. Many villages and vast farmlands in Wuchang City, a major rice-producing area, were also inundated by floodwaters, sparking concerns about food security.
In 2022, severe droughts hit the rice-producing regions in the Yangtze River Basin of China, leaving 2.2 million hectares of arable land fallow.
Extreme weather conditions have made life increasingly challenging for Chinese farmers. A study from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture revealed that by 2030, more frequent droughts could lead to an 8% decrease in corn, wheat, and rice production; heavy rainfall might have similar impacts on certain crops.
A study published in the journal “Nature” found that over the past 20 years, excessive rainfall had caused an 8% decline in China’s rice production.
Vegetables and fruits are equally susceptible to the impacts of extreme weather. In 2022, a severe drought in southern China resulted in soaring prices of cucumbers and lettuce.
Consulting firm BOABC Agriculture recently predicted that due to drought and high temperatures until June 2025, China’s wheat production might decrease by 1.24%, to 1.34 billion tons; delayed planting of corn due to drought could lead to a 2.26% drop in corn production until October 2025, amounting to 2.82 billion tons.
Historically, food shortages and food crises in China have sometimes triggered political unrest and regime changes. Therefore, food security has always been one of the Chinese Communist Party’s top priorities, with food security being widely regarded as the “ballast stone” of national security.
From 2012 to 2022, the Chinese Communist Party leader mentioned food security issues directly 67 times, emphasizing repeatedly that they must “firmly hold their own bowl of rice.”
The authorities aim to achieve a self-sufficiency rate of 92% for major grains and legumes by 2033, surpassing the 84% from 2021 to 2023. On June 1 this year, the Chinese Communist Party implemented its first “Law on Food Security Guarantee,” mandating absolute food self-sufficiency.
The Ministry of Agriculture predicted that over the ten years until 2033, corn imports would decrease by 75% to 6.8 million tons, and wheat imports would drop by 60% to 4.85 million tons.
However, due to extreme weather and other factors, Western experts doubt that the Beijing authorities can achieve these targets. The USDA estimates that China’s corn import volume in 2033/34 will remain roughly the same as the current levels, with wheat imports decreasing by 20% and soybean imports increasing by 39%.
Since the devastating floods that killed over three hundred people in Zhengzhou, Henan Province in July 2021, the Chinese government has attempted to change its approach to dealing with extreme weather events, aiming to “improve monitoring, prevention, and control measures for floods and other natural disasters.”
Data from the Chinese Ministry of Water Resources indicates that from January to November 2023, the Chinese mainland had invested 1.0938 trillion yuan in water conservancy construction, with 293.8 billion yuan invested in river basin flood control projects.
However, analysts point out that while the government has been investing heavily in water conservancy infrastructure to enhance flood control, there remains a significant gap in investment for maintaining existing systems.
Renowned Chinese water conservancy expert Wang Weiluo, currently based in Germany, mentioned to the Epoch Times that the issue in China isn’t a lack of investment in water conservancy infrastructure but rather excessive investment. He noted that in 2022 and 2023, over 1 trillion yuan was invested in water conservancy infrastructure. He highlighted that the results fell short due to various reasons such as faulty goals, corruption diverting funds, poor engineering quality, and lack of mechanisms to track investment effectiveness.
In 2021, the Ministry of Water Resources pointed out that 77% of small reservoirs in China were built in the 1950s to 1970s, with low standards and severe aging. These reservoirs were inadequately reinforced, leading to incomplete risk mitigation. The article likened this situation to using outdated methods and infrastructure that do not align with modern needs.
Furthermore, due to their minimal contribution to GDP and achievements, local governments in rural areas show limited enthusiasm for rural water conservancy construction. Instead, seeking to transfer ownership of reservoirs and collect rent, not for flood control or irrigation purposes.
In interviews conducted in various months, Wang mentioned that according to government policy, reservoir personnel receive basic wages allocated by the state, with additional bonuses and performance-based wages earned through the reservoir to generate profits being their sole goal.
Moreover, newly constructed reservoirs by the central government have been assigned multiple functions like power generation and water supply. Their key operating mode involves releasing floodwaters during the flood season and storing water during dry seasons, exacerbating peak flood levels during rainy seasons and causing more severe water shortages during dry periods.
In the case of the 7.20 flood disaster in Zhengzhou in 2021, Wang pointed out that the main cause wasn’t the heavy rainfall leading to severe urban flooding but the unannounced discharge by various reservoirs including Changzhuang, among others.
Following the recent flooding in Nanyang, Henan, the discharge from 33 large and medium-sized reservoirs in Henan exacerbated the disaster in the locality.
According to a report by “New Tang Dynasty Television” on July 17, residents of Tanghe County in Nanyang, Henan, indicated that the region had been severely affected by drought previously, leading to the Tanghe Riverbed being exposed, requiring watering for crop irrigation. On the evening of the 16th, the upstream discharge continued for ten hours, causing a sudden rise in water levels overnight, causing great fear and distress among residents along the riverbank who were forced to evacuate.
Mr. Yang, a resident of Nanyang, mentioned that there is a “Yuhe Reservoir” above Nanyang. During the dry season, water is stored to raise fish for revenue generation. “Once it starts raining, it releases water quietly without prior warning. If it gives a warning (about flood discharge), the government would be liable for compensation, attributing all misfortunes to natural disasters,” Yang expressed. “If they don’t care about the common people, then once you are dead, you are dead.”
The breach of the Dongting Lake dike on July 5 in Hunan had almost similar reasons. Wang explained to “New Tang Dynasty Television” that the breach occurred not due to excessive rainfall but mainly resulted from the simultaneous discharge of various large and small reservoirs in Hunan Province, leading to a rise in the water level of Dongting Lake. Additionally, the Three Gorges Reservoir occasionally increased the outflow rate, causing the water level of the outer water (Yangtze River) to rise, preventing the inner water (Dongting Lake) from draining.
While China has made substantial investments in water conservancy projects, Wang believes that the authorities’ fundamental water management model and objectives are flawed.
“The Chinese Communist Party adheres to the concept of ‘man triumphs over nature,’ aiming to alter nature and ‘eliminate’ natural disasters. Consequently, their measures to address natural disasters are erroneous, focusing on controlling water through large-scale reservoirs and dam projects,” he remarked.
“Their target setting is also incorrect. For example, their development of sponge cities aims to retain over 70% of rainfall within the city, inevitably neglecting the construction of urban drainage systems. They prioritize hardware construction, especially visible and tangible infrastructure that showcases leadership achievements, while overlooking software development such as natural disaster insurance,” he emphasized.
Another challenge lies in post-disaster recovery, which is extremely challenging to bounce back from a catastrophe which requires every farmer to spend a substantial amount to rebuild.
Following the breach of the Dongting Lake embankment this month, inundating nearly 20 square miles of land and displacing at least 7,000 people, a farmer from Hunan Province expressed to the media that his pigsty had been flooded, resulting in the loss of over 800 pigs.
Some farmers had to resort to selling flooded crops at discounted prices via social media as a last-ditch effort.
However, the Chinese authorities offer very low compensation rates for economic losses incurred due to natural disasters. Currently, the average global compensation rate for natural disaster insurance hovers around 30%-40%, but in China, it averages less than 10%.
A recent report by insurance company Aon highlighted that the economic losses caused by natural disasters in the Asia-Pacific region surged to $65 billion in 2023, with China bearing the most severe losses, totaling $32.2 billion related to flooding.
The report pointed out that the United States had the highest compensation rate for natural disaster-induced economic losses, amounting to $80 billion in 2023. However, from 2000 onwards, China’s annual average insurance payouts were less than $2 billion, with uncompensated losses averaging around $54 billion.
The data from Munich Re, a global reinsurance company, showed that the flood losses caused by Typhoon “In-Fa” last summer in China amounted to $25 billion, with only about 8% being covered by insurance payments.
Wang mentioned that foreign countries compensate those affected by flooding; for flooded houses, if individuals have insurance, the insurance company pays, and if not, the government uses funds to assist residents in rebuilding. Referring to Germany’s compensation policies, Wang stated that if your house is flooded, they would provide a new one as part of the compensation.
Estimates suggest that compensation for the 7.20 flood disaster in Henan in late July 2021 is close to about $3 billion, with the insurance industry covering only about 10% of the economic losses, mostly related to property or life insurance, with minimal presence of catastrophic insurance.
Corruption issues within the authorities are also severe. A report from the Henan Provincial Audit Bureau revealed that nearly billions of yuan in disaster relief funds were misappropriated over the two years following the severe flooding disaster in July 2021.