The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has now entered its third year, with the military alliance between Russia and North Korea not only prolonging the war but also significantly intensifying the tension on the Korean Peninsula. South Korea and North Korea are increasingly polarized in their positions regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Last month, Russian President Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty,” which includes a commitment to mutual defense. The military alliance between nuclear powers Russia and the nuclear-armed North Korea has not only shaken the global security landscape but has also created a significant impact on the situation in the Korean Peninsula.
Following the signing of the treaty, the South Korean government issued a strong condemnation of the pact between North Korea and Russia, which it views as equivalent to a military alliance. South Korea stated that it would reconsider its plans to provide weapons to Ukraine, as its assistance had previously been limited to non-lethal equipment.
In February of this year, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol declared that South Korea would not pursue the development of its own nuclear deterrence capability in response to the nuclear threat from North Korea. Instead, South Korea pledged to further enhance its nuclear deterrence strategy in collaboration with ally, the United States.
Earlier this month, during the NATO summit in Washington, officials from the US and South Korean defense ministries signed the “Guidelines for Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Actions on the Korean Peninsula.” This marked a commitment to utilize all capabilities, including nuclear weapons, to defend Seoul against potential attacks, and represented a significant step in fulfilling the defense commitments to South Korea.
The joint statement by the US and South Korean presidents emphasized that the newly established guidelines lay a solid foundation for enhanced US-South Korea extended deterrence cooperation. Any nuclear attack on South Korea would receive a “prompt, overwhelming, and decisive response.” The term “extended deterrence” refers to the US commitment to using its nuclear and conventional forces to deter attacks on its allies.
President Yoon Suk-yeol, upon his return to South Korea, stated that the alliance between South Korea and the US had evolved into a “nuclear-based” alliance capable of deterring North Korea’s nuclear threats. He emphasized Seoul’s determination to collaborate closely with the US and Japan in response to what he deemed as “illegal” military engagements by North Korea and Russia.
North Korean state media criticized the agreement between Seoul and Washington, alleging that it escalated their nuclear threat and threatened to make them pay an “unimaginable and painful price.”
A list released by the US State Department in February revealed that since September last year, North Korea had shipped over 10,000 containers of ammunition or related weapon materials to Russia in support of Moscow’s war efforts in Ukraine.
Quoting South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik, Korean state media reported that this was in exchange for Russia providing food aid and satellite launch technology to North Korea.
According to defense analysts cited by Nikkei Asia, Russian technological assistance may have played a role in North Korea’s successful satellite launch at the end of last year, contributing to significant advancements in their nuclear development efforts.
In an email to Nikkei Asia, Ukraine’s Ambassador to South Korea, Dmytro Ponomarenko, once again urged South Korea to provide advanced weapons equipment to assist Ukraine in repelling Russian forces. Ponomarenko stated, “Ukraine and the Republic of Korea are both free democratic countries dealing with unpredictable and hostile authoritarian regimes on their borders. I believe (South Korea) … is very aware that the outcome of this battle will determine the future of global security and democracy.”
Domestic laws in South Korea prohibit local arms manufacturers from exporting weapons to conflict zones. Thus far, South Korea has maintained its stance of offering financial and non-lethal aid, such as helmets and bulletproof vests, to Ukraine.
Last month, South Korean news outlet Yonhap cited an unnamed government official stating that Seoul is considering providing Ukraine with anti-aircraft systems.