Baidu’s self-driving taxi “Carrot Run” recently launched a trial run in Wuhan, China, causing controversy. The main focus is on the promotion of self-driving taxis in the backdrop of China’s economic downturn and rising unemployment, which may encroach on the livelihoods of millions of drivers. Many experts believe that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) does not truly consider people’s livelihoods. Instead, its objective is to achieve global dominance in the field of self-driving taxis and turn Chinese society into a high-tech testing ground.
“Carrot Run”, the self-driving taxi introduced by Baidu, has implemented actual self-driving passenger services supported by the Wuhan government. In recent days, on the streets of Wuhan, white electric cars moving slowly without drivers can be seen, with the steering wheel turning on its own and passengers seated in the back.
Currently, “Carrot Run” has opened passenger testing and operation services in 11 cities, and conducted full self-driving travel service tests in Beijing, Wuhan, Chongqing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai. Wuhan is the first city in China that does not require self-driving ride-hailing vehicles to be equipped with a “safety officer” onboard, only needing remote monitoring.
According to reports, the discounted price of “Carrot Run” in Wuhan ranges from 4 to 16 yuan for every 10 kilometers, while the current prices of taxis and ride-hailing cars range from 18 to 30 yuan.
“Carrot Run”, like regular ride-hailing services, can be ordered through a mini-program or app. However, upon the vehicle’s arrival, passengers need to input the last four digits of their phone number on a small screen near the car’s rear door to unlock it. Once inside, the screen in front of the passenger will prompt to confirm the trip; if the passenger doesn’t confirm manually, “Carrot Run” will remain stationary.
The main criticism of “Carrot Run” currently is its slow speed and strict adherence to rules, leading to incidents where it suddenly stops in the middle of the road, causing traffic congestion. A video circulated on July 7, 2024, showed a “Carrot Run” colliding with a pedestrian in Wuhan, resulting in traffic congestion.
According to “Hubei Releases,” each “Carrot Run” vehicle receives over 20 orders daily, with order volume catching up to traditional taxis. Some ride-hailing drivers believe that the current price advantage of “Carrot Run” is due to capital subsidies.
As per Baidu’s financial report for the first quarter of this year, the proportion of fully self-driving orders has exceeded 55%, rising to 70% in April, and it is expected to rapidly increase to 100% in the next few quarters. Baidu predicts that “Carrot Run” is expected to achieve a break-even point in Wuhan by the end of 2024 and become profitable by 2025.
Many views believe that the day when self-driving taxis replace ride-hailing and traditional taxis may not be far off, garnering significant attention against the backdrop of high unemployment rates.
Amid a wave of unemployment, the number of ride-hailing drivers in China has surged in the past two years. According to statistics from the Chinese Ride-Hailing Driver Certification and Information Exchange Platform, the number of ride-hailing driver licenses issued nationwide increased from 2.545 million in October 2020 to 5.406 million in April 2024, a growth of 112.4%.
Beijing also has “Carrot Run”. Mr. Gao, a white-collar worker, told a reporter on July 14, 2024 that he had just taken a ride in “Carrot Run” on the 13th and found it to be good, mainly because of its low price, only 3.9 yuan per 10 kilometers, ultimately saving more than 20 yuan compared to regular ride-hailing services.
He heard from a ride-hailing driver concerns about unemployment since the registered unemployment rate in Beijing’s Haidian district last month had reached 40%. “Despite the bustling appearance of Beijing on the surface, the deep economic crisis is severe.”
The National Bureau of Statistics of China stated on July 15 that the average urban unemployment rate in the first half of the year was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year. However, mainland netizens questioned, “Please disclose the scope of the unemployment rate statistics, including who is included and excluded,” “How significant are these statistics?”
Recently, local taxi operators in Wuhan released an open letter petitioning for “strict control of the number of ride-hailing cars” and “fair competition,” and regarding the self-driving taxi services provided by “Carrot Run,” they demanded “no privileges, should be limited to certain areas,” and cannot “accept orders all over the city.”
Mr. Gao believes that if self-driving cars are promoted nationwide, it will impact the taxi industry, driving schools for learning to drive, and car sales. “These three are closely related to people’s lives. If these three industries are seriously affected, I estimate that China’s traditional manufacturing industry will be almost finished.”
Officially controlled mainland media outlets are trying to “put out the fire” caused by the controversy of unemployed ride-hailing drivers due to self-driving ride-hailing cars hitting the road.
A report from The Paper is titled “Scholar Predicts It Will Take 10 to 15 Years for Self-Driving to Be Widely Adopted in China”; New Yellow River’s headline is “Carrot Run, Running Fast? Large-scale Commercialization Is Far Away,” quoting mainland experts saying, “We’re not yet at a point where we need to worry about self-driving cars taking other businesses.”
A report from China News Weekly is titled “Carrot Run, Can’t Sabotage the Rice Bowls of Ride-Hailing Drivers.”
According to Pacific Securities, by 2025 and 2030, the Robotaxi market in China is expected to exceed 1.18 trillion yuan and 2.93 trillion yuan respectively. There will be other players if “Carrot” doesn’t do it; if China doesn’t do it, the US will.
It was reported that in April this year, Pony.ai, Toyota China, and GAC Toyota announced that a joint venture company would soon be registered and planned to launch a commercial fleet of a thousand Platooning Four X self-driving vehicles in the Chinese market. GAC Aian and Didi have jointly invested in the registration of AinDi Technology, with their first commercial L4 vehicle model planned for release in 2025. Tesla’s CEO Musk released a Tesla Robotaxi in October. “More importantly, Musk is seeking to introduce Robotaxi in China.”
According to China Daily on May 8, the Chinese government may support Tesla’s Robotaxi for testing and demonstration domestically.
Associate researcher Wang Xiaowen of the Communist Military and Operational Concept Research Institute of the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Studies told Epoch Times that self-driving taxis are still in the experimental stage. He said, “Currently, robots have not replaced human drivers; if they are widely commercialized in the future, there may be a surge in unemployment among human taxi and ride-hailing drivers.”
Regarding the CCP’s accelerated push for the introduction of self-driving taxis, Wang believes their main objective is to surpass the United States.
Even in the US, which leads in self-driving technology, automatic driving car testing programs only started in the last two years. In February 2022, the California Public Utilities Commission issued permits to General Motors and Alphabet Inc.’s self-driving division, allowing them to provide passenger services with automated driving cars in the presence of safety drivers.
The report from The Paper indicated that to achieve large-scale commercialization, self-driving taxis must overcome several obstacles, including social acceptance and traffic legislation. Wang explained that with regulations, standards, capabilities, business models, and more not yet in place, there will be a host of problems to solve after China’s initial foray into this novel experience, such as safety and slow driving speeds.
“The interaction between new technology and humans presents a real crisis in terms of personal safety. If there is suddenly a fire, how will passengers inside be able to save themselves? Another issue is whether taxi drivers will become a hidden danger to social stability,” said Wang.
He emphasized that if the number of self-driving taxis surpasses those driven by human drivers or ride-hailing cars, and the CCP does not provide training for these human drivers to transition, it will result in significant unemployment. However, for the sake of global interests and to satisfy national confidence, the CCP will not concern itself with the people’s losses.
Researcher Wu Sezhi at the Cross-Strait Policy Association told Epoch Times that the CCP’s development of a fully self-driving car industry has two considerations. Firstly, it wants to demonstrate its national competitiveness. However, since the CCP already faces the problem of overcapacity in electric vehicles, combining them with self-driving taxis will lead to social issues like unemployment.
“Secondly, the CCP wants to showcase its state control. If self-driving expands or is utilized in China, the government can use it to control society. Individuals rated poorly in the social credit system may not be able to use self-driving taxis, and officials might even arrest suspects using this as an opportunity.”
Yet, this approach may backfire, creating more invisible resistance under the digital government’s control. “The people become guinea pigs, and the society becomes a group of guinea pigs for the government’s tests,” Wu said.
Regarding legal responsibilities in self-driving, Wu mentioned that many countries are still exploring, but the CCP has essentially abandoned the required procedures. “China’s past economic development strategy has been like this – first conduct physical tests, then establish relevant regulations. The impact on society is significant; people become guinea pigs, and society becomes a group of guinea pigs for the government’s tests.”
Wu noted, “Taxi drivers’ rights and livelihood issues probably aren’t the CCP’s primary concern.”
Regarding reports that Musk is seeking to introduce Robotaxi to the Chinese market, Wu said Musk goes to China for the market. However, from the CCP’s perspective, the main consideration is Musk’s technological capabilities in self-driving behind his back. “This is a common tactic the CCP has used in the past – using foreign investment to attract or steal foreign technology or management capabilities.”
He explained that for many high-tech industries, China is seen as a major testing ground for the application of self-driving. “So, whether from the CCP’s perspective or the international community’s perspective, the most sorrowful aspect is that Chinese society or Chinese people have become subjects of experimentation in high-tech development.”
American economist Davy J. Wong told Epoch Times that currently, companies like Waymo and Tesla in the US are researching self-driving, but due to various laws, regulations, and safety norms in the US, they have more considerations. In China, the CCP can freely modify laws, regulations, and road rights without much consideration, giving them a “better” testing ground.
Wong believes that from the CCP’s official perspective, they are now considering surpassing others in the future by combining electric vehicles and self-driving to dominate globally. “Self-driving cars are not widely deployed in many countries, but the CCP allows them to roam the streets continuously, train machines, and improve technology, paving the way for future maturity.”
“The target market is not domestic but global. They don’t worry too much about the danger to people riding these cars or the unemployment rate. That shouldn’t be the key consideration,” he said.
(Contributed to this article by Epoch Times reporter Luo Ya)