After entering July, the United Kingdom, France, and Iran have successively held parliamentary elections and presidential elections, with the election results in all three countries significantly defying expectations. In the UK, Prime Minister Sunak lost his position, and the Labour Party came to power. In France, the left-wing coalition emerged as the largest political force in parliament, relegating Macron’s centrist party to second place. In Iran, the hardline candidate suffered a defeat in the presidential election, with a moderate reformist candidate securing the victory. These unexpected changes are seen not only to impact domestic policies but also have repercussions on future global dynamics.
On July 7th, during the second round of voting in the French National Assembly, the left-wing coalition (New People’s Front) emerged as the largest group in the French parliament with 188 seats. President Macron’s centrist alliance with the Renaissance Party ranked second with 161 seats, while the previously favored National Rally (RN) led by Le Pen, representing the far-right, came in third with 142 seats.
Although the far-right in France had seen success in European Parliament elections and the first round of parliamentary voting in France, they faced unexpected outcomes in the crucial second round. Numerous left-wing and centrist candidates withdrew from the election after the first round, fearing the potential destabilization of the political order by the far-right. What seemed like a favorable triangular contest for the National Rally quickly turned into an unpredictable head-to-head race. The result saw the National Rally, likely to become the largest party in parliament for the first time, suffer a defeat.
Reacting to the outcome of the French parliamentary elections, the Foreign Policy Spokesperson of Germany’s Social Democratic Party, Olaf Scholz, expressed that France managed to avoid the worst-case scenario, with Macron politically weakened but retaining a core role. The formation of a government in France will be challenging, requiring flexibility and compromise from all sides.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez also praised the French election results, while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk remarked that it would bring joy to Poland, disappointment to Russia, and relief to Ukraine.
Subsequently, concerns within European public opinion arose regarding the uncertainty in French politics and its potential implications for Europe. Germany’s Die Zeit stated that France might have breathed a sigh of relief, but Europe as a whole did not. The leader of the German Marshall Fund voiced concerns that the current situation could deal a heavy blow to France’s international leadership status, fearing policies that could be unfavorable for EU internal integration.
The Guardian warned that France might fall into prolonged parliamentary deadlock and political uncertainty. The Wall Street Journal also apprehensively mentioned potential parliamentary division and political deadlock resulting from the French election outcome.
Senior political commentator Tang Jingyuan, in communication with The Epoch Times, highlighted the widespread misjudgments regarding the predictions of the elections in France, the UK, and Iran. This reflects a period of turbulent reorganization in the current international political landscape, predominantly driven by public dissatisfaction with economic and immigration policies. The conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have exacerbated these grievances, ultimately influencing the election results.
In the UK, parliamentary elections for the House of Commons on July 4th resulted in a historic defeat for the Conservative Party led by Rishi Sunak, leading to relinquishing their governing power after a 14-year tenure.
The House of Commons in the UK comprises 650 seats. Among the three major parties, the Labour Party secured 412 seats (up from 205 before the election, gaining 207 seats), while the Conservative Party obtained 121 seats (down from 344, losing 223 seats), and the Liberal Democrats garnered 72 seats (up from 15, gaining 57 seats).
The shift in seat numbers post-election indicates that the Conservative Party lost a similar number of seats to those gained by the Labour Party, suggesting a transfer of seats from the Conservatives to Labour.
Despite the Conservative Party’s 14-year tenure, which encompassed challenges such as economic crises, the COVID-19 pandemic, and Brexit, their support dwindled, leadership changes were frequent, culminating in this resounding defeat.
Sunak’s decision to risk an early election was aimed at rallying support for the Conservative Party, which had trailed significantly behind the Labour Party in opinion polls. This move was perceived as a high-risk gamble before the election.
During this election, Sunak’s government saw ten senior cabinet members losing their seats, breaking the historical record of the Conservative Party losing seven seats in 1997.
The reasons behind the Conservative Party’s defeat in the UK are multifaceted, including public dissatisfaction with Brexit, the party’s economic policies, and immigration policies. The frequent changes in leadership and Sunak’s inability to deliver on many policy promises further contributed to the defeat.
On July 5th, Keir Starmer assumed office as the Prime Minister of the UK, leading the Labour Party. Coming from a legal background, Starmer served as the Director of Public Prosecutions and the Crown Prosecution Service, receiving a knighthood in 2014, and took over as the Labour Party leader on April 4, 2020.
On his second day in office, Starmer abolished the previous government’s controversial policy of transferring thousands of asylum seekers to Rwanda. He pledged to establish a “Border Security Command” to address human trafficking issues.
In the realm of international affairs, Starmer emphasized that there was no turning back on Brexit, intending to discuss new cooperation agreements with Europe on food, environment, and labor standards. He voiced support for Israel’s actions in Gaza and its right to self-defense.
Following his victory, Starmer emphasized the Labour Party’s commitment to national rebuilding, highlighting the necessity for politics to focus on public services, signaling a time for change going forward.
Regarding the changes in the UK, Tang Jingyuan opined that the Labour Party coming to power represented a kind of “pseudo-left turn,” as their election victory was largely attributed to their moderate centrist approach.
Iran’s former President Ebrahim Raisi passed away in a plane crash on May 19. In response, Iran decided to hold the next presidential election prematurely in 2024. On July 7th, moderate reformist Masoud Pezeshkian secured the presidential election victory with 54.76% of the vote, marking a surprising turn of events as Iran shifted from a hardline anti-Western president to a reformist leader.
As per the Iranian constitution, all candidates must pass scrutiny by the Guardian Council, which has been criticized for biased treatment against reformists. In the past three elections, prominent reformist candidates were disqualified by the council, leaving lesser-known figures from their camp with limited opportunities to run, undermining the competitiveness of the reformists.
Following the publication of the Guardian Council’s vetting results on June 9th, there were subdued expectations towards the reformists.
Among six candidates, Pezeshkian was the sole figure with differing political stances from the other camp.
The Principalists support a more radical Islamic ideology, with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei coming from their ranks, showing closer ties between Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the conservatives.
Iran has imposed “Islamic-style” limitations on its society. In September 2022, a young woman died in detention, triggering widespread protests and harsher crackdowns. The Iranian populace’s dissatisfaction with the high-handedness of the government and economic difficulties was palpable.
During Raisi’s tenure, efforts were made to achieve economic autonomy, with a shift towards an “Eastern-looking” foreign policy, strengthening ties with China and Russia. Regarded as the successor to Khamenei and a leading hardliner, Raisi’s sudden demise altered Iran’s political landscape.
In the second round of voting, Pezeshkian’s competitor was Saeed Jalili, a well-known hardliner whose views closely aligned with the Supreme Leader. Prior to the election, it was widely believed Jalili would emerge victorious, but Pezeshkian’s reform promises garnered public support.
Pezeshkian’s campaign strategy centered on criticizing the conservative camp’s anti-Western policies, particularly lambasting Raisi’s pro-China and pro-Russia stance.
In recent years, any reformists not aligned with Khamenei have been ousted by the conservatives. Pezeshkian also faces significant challenges from the resistance movement, which asserts that the Iranian president lacks authority to alter foreign policy.
“The rise of reformists in Iran signifies the fading market for extreme leftist approaches. Iran has now begun to adjust its direction, distancing itself from China and Russia, and attempting to restore contacts with the West. While Europe’s overall trend towards the right remains unchanged, the defeat of far-left ideologies and the gradual ascendancy of center-left or center-right parties are evident,” Tang Jingyuan remarked.