Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the accounts of actual casualties on both sides have been considered lacking in evidence. However, recent analysis data indicate that the statistics from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense are increasingly aligning with the reality. The statistics show that the average number of Russian soldiers killed in action on the Ukrainian battlefield has been steadily increasing, from an initial daily toll of around 120 to the current estimate of 200 to 250 deaths per day. It is important to note that these figures pertain to fatalities, not overall casualties.
The daily war reports from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense as of July 7th indicate that the casualties among Russian troops have reached 550,990 individuals. Last year, Kyiv clarified that this daily figure includes both fatalities and injuries incurred in combat. In the past, this estimate significantly differed from those of other Western countries, but over the past few months, the numbers provided by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense have begun to align more closely with Western estimates. For example, in December of last year, the US estimated Russian military casualties at 315,000, while at that time Ukraine estimated nearly 341,000 Russian casualties. Former UK Minister for the Armed Forces, Leo Docherty, stated in April of this year that the UK estimates Russian losses exceeding 450,000, a figure very close to the numbers released by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense two months prior.
Publicly available information such as obituaries, social media posts, and regional news reports from outlets like Mediazona, BBC, and Russian news channels have provided regular detailed statistics on named Russian military fatalities. The latest update on Russian military deaths now stands at 58,207 individuals. Due to varying sources of evidence on these statistics, these numbers are likely significantly underestimated. However, independent statistics from Mediazona and Meduza also provide “quick estimates” of Russian military deaths. These figures are derived from an analysis of inheritance case databases, compared against death records from the Russian Federal State Statistics Service, the Russian Archive of Will Registration, and obituaries. According to their latest calculations, as of the end of June this year, approximately 120,000 Russian military personnel have died in the war since February 2022, a conservative estimate that may omit casualties in other circumstances, suggesting the actual Russian military death toll may exceed 140,000.
Reports indicate that Russian losses have significantly increased over the past few months, almost doubling the average casualties in the last three months of 2023 when approximately 120 soldiers died daily. The reports further note that the current daily death toll now ranges from 200 to 250 individuals.
Both Kyiv and Moscow have not disclosed detailed casualty figures of their own, although Ukrainian President Zelensky stated in February of this year that around 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died in this war, without revealing the number of wounded. Meanwhile, President Putin stated in June that the irreversible losses between Russia and Ukraine are at a ratio of one to five but did not provide evidence to support his claim. Battlefield estimates from Ukraine and the US indicate that Russia’s actual casualties significantly outnumber those of Ukraine.
Recent updates from the Ukrainian battlefield reveal that on the evening of July 6th to 7th, Ukrainian forces carried out drone strikes on a Russian ammunition depot in Kharkiv Oblast, Shyrokyne. On July 7th, geolocation videos near Morozovka in Kharkiv Oblast showed scenes of smoke and explosions. The attacked Russian ammunition depot was believed to house ground-to-ground attack bombs, surface-to-air missiles, tank and artillery ammunition, as well as small arms ammunition.
On July 6th, Ukrainian forces conducted a series of precision strikes against Russian military assets in Donetsk Oblast. The coordinated operation involved the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Directorate and the reconnaissance unit of the 45th Independent Artillery Brigade. The primary target of this operation was a Russian military supply hub in Debaltseve, a critical node for storing tank equipment and ammunition. This successful attack disrupted the Russian military supply chain, weakening their operational capability in the region.
Ukrainian forces also targeted the Russian R-330Zh Zhitel electronic warfare communication station in Novooleksandrivka, which serves as essential electronic warfare infrastructure for the Russian military, primarily used for disrupting Ukrainian military communications and radar systems.
Since late June, the Ukrainian Air Force has conducted successive attacks on a Russian command post in Belgorod Oblast. Ukrainian forces likely employed French-made Armement Air-Sol Modulaire Hammer precision-guided bombs and other Western-supplied weapons.
Analysts at the War Studies Institute suggest that these developments demonstrate the Ukrainian forces’ ability to utilize Western-supplied weapons, including precision-guided bombs and army tactical missiles, to target military objectives in the Russian rear combat zone and rear depth area, thus weakening and significantly disrupting the operational capabilities of the Russian military. If the West continues to lift restrictions, Ukraine may further disrupt Russia’s advances.
On July 7th, Ukrainian forces shot down a Russian Su-25 attack aircraft that targeted Ukrainian defense positions. The Hordychy demining unit reported that the independent mechanized brigade’s air defense unit, named after Major-General Marko Bezruchko, successfully downed a Russian Su-25 attack aircraft in the Pokrovsk direction in Donetsk Oblast.
The Su-25 is a subsonic ground attack aircraft used for providing direct air support to friendly ground forces in a close air support role, claimed to be capable of destroying any designated ground target under all-weather conditions.
In a statement on Monday, the Russian Foreign Ministry reported that Sevastopol, Crimea’s largest city, was subjected to a missile attack involving Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) on July 7th, resulting in four deaths and over 150 injuries. The Russian Defense Ministry stated that their air defense system intercepted four missiles, with the fifth missile veering off course after being hit and exploding in the city’s airspace. Russian officials assert that the US and Ukraine bear equal responsibility for this attack, and Russia will retaliate.
As the war in Ukraine continues to prove challenging for Russia, Moscow is contemplating revising its nuclear weapons doctrine. Recent comments by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov express this intent. This perspective aims to lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, suggesting that “Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons if Moscow believed its sovereignty and territorial integrity were under threat.”
Ryabkov stated that the Ukraine war indicates that traditional nuclear deterrence has not been fully effective, necessitating conceptual supplements and revisions. While no specifics were provided, he indicated that Russia would ultimately adopt more concrete measures for “further escalation by the adversary.” He reiterated the Kremlin’s assertion that the West is exacerbating the conflict.
Since the invasion, Putin’s stance on nuclear issues has been ambiguous, stating on one hand that nuclear weapons are unnecessary to achieve goals but conducting tactical nuclear weapons exercises with Belarus in the south of Russia last month.
During the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Putin also hinted at potential modifications to nuclear weapons doctrine, describing it as a “living tool.” He stated that Moscow closely monitors ongoing global events and does not rule out any changes to this doctrine.
Dmitri Trenin of the Moscow-based think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace also advocates for revising rules on nuclear weapon use, announcing that Russia can first use nuclear weapons when its “core national interests are threatened.” He added that Moscow must “convince” Western countries that “they will not be able to maintain their comfortable peace after instigating conflict with Russia.”
Daryl Kimball, Executive Director of the Arms Control Association, stated last month that to avoid nuclear miscalculation, dialogue between Russia and the US on reducing nuclear risks and arms control must be reestablished. He emphasized the need for all nations to refrain from issuing verbal threats of nuclear retaliation, avoid provocative nuclear exercises, and rule out adopting counterproductive actions mimicking Russia.
The threat of resorting to nuclear weapons by Russia has loomed over the ongoing war and influenced US and other Western countries’ provision of military assistance to Ukraine without escalating the risk of further conflict.