An article published on an official population research website claimed that China is “facing an unprecedented peak in population mortality,” touching on sensitive issues. The full text of the article is currently unavailable on the original website. Relevant topics on Weibo were swiftly taken down after trending yesterday (July 7). Experts have analyzed the article and pointed out that it contains hidden secrets in various details. The removal of the topic on Weibo may be due to concerns that it could impact the upcoming Third Plenary Session scheduled for this month.
On July 7, the Weibo topic “#China Will Face a Peak in Population Mortality” trended and has since been taken down from the platform by July 8.
According to reports from “Interface News,” a paper titled “Characteristics and Evolution Mechanism of China’s Population Mortality Peak” was published in the official background magazine “Population Research.” The study stated, “Against the backdrop of rapidly advancing population aging, China is facing an unprecedented peak in population mortality.” It highlighted that the speed and scale of China’s mortality peak present unprecedented challenges to society.
The authors of the article, Professor Zhang Zhen from Fudan University’s Population Research Institute and Professor Li Qiang from the Institute of Gerontology, analyzed that China’s birth rate has gone through a process of increase followed by decline, with fluctuation amplitudes gradually decreasing over time.
In the 1980s, there was a small peak in births, followed by a continuous decline. After a series of adjustments in fertility policies in recent years, there was a temporary rebound in births after 2016, followed by another downward trend. It is predicted that future birth rates are likely to remain at lower levels amidst fluctuations.
The article did not mention the large-scale killing of infants that began in the late 1970s due to the Chinese Communist Party’s one-child policy. According to data released by the Chinese National Health Commission, at least 450 million fetuses were aborted between 1979 and 2013.
Historian Li Yuanhua, who resides in Australia, analyzed for Epoch Times that the article actually conceals some undisclosed secrets. One implication is that the Chinese Communist Party’s one-child policy has created imbalances in China’s population structure, posing various risks. The article mentions the temporary rebound in births in 2016, indicating that the CCP relaxed the policy to allow a second child due to recognizing the crisis, but the effect was not substantial.
The article in “Population Research” analyzes changes in death rates, noting that during the three-year famine period, there was an “impact on births,” and “death rates rebounded temporarily.” However, the article did not provide specific data related to this claim.
The “Three-Year Great Famine” refers to a period from 1959 to 1961 during which the Chinese Communist Party under authoritarian rule launched campaigns like the “Great Leap Forward,” resulting in widespread famine. Yang Jisheng, a former senior journalist with Xinhua News Agency, has conducted over a decade’s worth of investigative research into the Great Famine, concluding it was man-made. Estimates of the death toll range from a conservative 17 million to as high as 60 million, with Yang Jisheng opting for the median figure of 36 million.
Li Yuanhua shared with Epoch Times that the “Three-Year Great Famine” is another “secret” mentioned in this article. During those years, millions of deaths occurred annually due to non-natural causes, but domestic scholars were unable to address this issue openly. Li Yuanhua emphasized, “In reality, the CCP must have had the data because the CCP controls people’s movements through household registration policies. They would have accurate statistics on whether a person was present or not, alive or dead, and these would be counted at various administrative levels. However, the figures are too sensitive, and they have never been made public.”
The article in “Population Research” states that by entering the mid-1980s, the death rate remained at a relatively low level, gradually increasing from 6.34‰ in 1980 to 7.87‰ in 2023. Meanwhile, the average life expectancy rose from 67.77 years in 1980 to 78.20 years in 2023. With the proportion of the population aged 65 and above rising from 4.9% in 1982 to 15.4% in 2023, the number of deaths began to increase continuously, reaching 11.1 million in 2023.
However, the aforementioned data did not account for the significant impact on mortality numbers during recent years due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
China experienced a peak in elderly deaths towards the end of 2022 when the epidemic abruptly transitioned from lockdown to sudden openness. At that time, crematoriums nationwide were overloaded, a memory etched in people’s minds. Yet, the Civil Affairs Department of the CCP subsequently ceased publishing funeral data and has yet to resume. Thus, the actual number of deaths remains unknown to the public.
Li Yuanhua noted that the article mentions a slow increase in the death rate from 6.34‰ in 1980 to 7.87‰ in 2023. This likely includes the influence of the pandemic, but the officially reported mortality rate due to infection may not be entirely accurate. This situation conceals yet another secret harbored by the CCP.
“The CCP not only conceals mortality rates but also masks the causes of death. In the later stages of the pandemic, if individuals were infected with the virus, they were not tested for it. If left untested, it means the cause of death would not be attributed to the virus. Especially for elderly individuals or those with existing health issues, they had other complications, which were considered the primary cause, and not categorized as COVID-19 deaths.”
Some have questioned whether the CCP’s sudden relaxation of restrictions was a calculated move to reduce the elderly population.
Li Yuanhua expressed, “Although this claim may seem shocking, the CCP has historically undervalued human life, making it possible for such a scenario to be plausible.” He added, “The pandemic directly affected those with weakened health, assuming they could no longer contribute to society and became a burden. Thus, the decision to fully reopen may have involved a planned way to eliminate people.”
According to the article in “Population Research,” as several waves of high birth rates from the mid-20th century gradually enter old age, China’s population is accelerating in aging, leading to a rapid increase in death rates. It is projected to reach a new level in 2040, peak at 19 million in 2061 (with a 95% prediction interval between 15.57 to 22.42 million), before gradually declining. From 2024 to the end of the 21st century, China is estimated to witness a total of 1.23 billion deaths (with a 95% prediction interval between 1.0 billion to 1.5 billion), averaging 16 million annual deaths (with a 95% prediction interval between 13.04 million to 19.44 million).
The authors suggest accelerating the construction of palliative care systems, enhancing medium to long-term planning for funeral services, ensuring supply-demand balance, and providing legal services for elderly rights protection and inheritance disputes.
Economist David Huang from the United States told Epoch Times that estimating the arrival of the peak in population and making societal preparations and resource allocations in advance is crucial. However, whether this issue will be given due attention in China is another matter.
Taiwanese financial expert Huang Shicong provided analysis to Epoch Times, stating that aging is not only a problem in China but is more severe there, especially due to the legacy of the one-child policy. With the young generation unable to sufficiently replace the aging population that has been retiring gradually since the era of reform and opening up, significant pressure is building on the economy. The only solution is to raise the birth rates among the younger population.
Huang Shicong noted that Taiwan has a pension system and a long-term care system for the elderly, which provide stable support through societal and governmental efforts. This aspect may still be lacking in mainland China. While the CCP intends to delay retirement, it will limit job opportunities for the younger generation, making it challenging to find a resolution.
The news report on the article in “Population Research” sparked discussions among Weibo users. Here are some comments shared on the platform:
“I knew the wave of deaths was coming when I saw 120 ambulances on the road every day.”
“Each stage is challenging. Let’s focus on solving jobs, housing, and daily living first!”
“First, ensure dignity in living and then ensure dignity in aging.”
“It’s normal. The high birth rates in the 50s and 60s resulted in an overpopulation. Instead of worrying about normal deaths, we should focus on the employment rate of young people today.”
“Population decline is an inevitable trend as the demographic dividend has faded. The inhumane family planning policy accelerated the loss of the demographic dividend, and now they want people to have kids when there are no longer people to bear children.”
“No wonder the trending hashtag #China Will Face a Peak in Population Mortality suddenly vanished.”
“Emotions of only children are hitting a low point, and the risk of depression continues to skew to younger ages.”
On overseas platforms, there have been discussions among netizens as well:
Reporter Xiao Wu: “What China fears the most is losing its population, the only asset it holds in the world; it fears losing the human resources that drive economic development. Those heading towards the mortality peak are ordinary elderly people who have toiled all their lives. The elites and retired personnel within the system can postpone this by at least ten to fifteen years compared to the common people.”
PeopleX: “If the article is taken down, does that mean death doesn’t exist? It’s unbelievable how the CCP operates—it’s evil and foolish without any justifications.”
Dandelion: “Vaccines accelerated this process along with various toxic foods, making it truly challenging for the Chinese to live healthy lives.”
Dragon Soaring Style (Second Generation): “I doubt there are still 1.4 billion people in China now. With the pandemic, immigration surges, and declining birth rates, the total population in China is likely under 1.1 billion.”
Regarding the swift removal of the trending topic on Weibo, David Huang suggests that as China prepares for the upcoming Third Plenary Session, the authorities may be concerned that discussions on these topics would “affect the country’s image” and subsequently suppressed them.
He pointed out that the CCP’s implementation of family planning policies has caused a significant disruption to the demographic structure, with sudden demographic imbalances resulting in certain age groups having a surplus or deficit of individuals. Coupled with inadequacies in China’s social security system, this adds to the personal pressures faced by ordinary citizens. “They have elderly parents and children, but the middle-tier social security support is lacking, and given insufficient job opportunities and economic downturns, the personal pressures and difficulties they experience far exceed those seen in countries with similar economic development levels.”
Li Yuanhua mentioned that while the article in the Population magazine appears to discuss elderly mortality rates, it subtly touches on social issues that the CCP cannot resolve, hence crossing a taboo. “As the population birth peak ages into seniority and exits the workforce, yearly new birth rates remain very low. The population structure is chaotic.”