Harvard Poll: Biden’s Lead narrows among Young Voters

A recent opinion poll indicates that former U.S. President and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is further eroding Democratic President Joe Biden’s lead among young voters.

The Harvard University Institute of Politics released the Harvard Youth Poll on Thursday, showing that among young Americans aged 18 to 29, Biden leads Trump with a support rate of 45% to 37%, while 16% of respondents say they have not made a decision yet.

This 8-point gap is much smaller than the gap during the same period in the 2020 election cycle when Biden led Trump by 23 points among young people.

When the respondents were narrowed down to registered voters and likely voters, Biden’s advantage expanded. Among voters under 30 considered likely to vote, Biden leads Trump by 19 points, but this gap has significantly narrowed compared to the 30-point lead four years ago.

In specific young voter groups, Biden leads Trump by 43 points among non-white voters and by 33 points among female voters.

Among young voters with higher education, Biden’s support is also much higher than Trump’s, leading Trump by 47 points among college graduates and by 23 points among college students.

However, Biden’s lead has narrowed in other key youth groups, leading Trump by 6 points among young men and by 3 points among young white people.

The poll shows that support for the presumed nominees of both parties is nearly equal among young people without a college degree.

The results also indicate that while fewer young voters support Trump, those who do are much more enthusiastic about the former president than young Biden supporters are about the current president. Over three-quarters of Trump supporters say they strongly support him, while only 44% of Biden supporters express strong support for him.

The nationwide poll was conducted from March 14 to March 21, surveying 2010 Americans aged 18 to 29, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Participants were recruited randomly to join a panel maintained by Ipsos Public Affairs and then surveyed online.

John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, said in a statement, “Undoubtedly, what we’re seeing among young voters is different from what we saw in 2020 and 2022, and the issues motivating young voters are also different. Economic concerns are a top priority, with housing being a major issue, and there is a significant political divide between young men and young women.”

Young voters tend to lean towards the Democratic Party, but the latest findings from the Harvard Youth Poll show that despite Biden repeatedly reducing student loan debt after taking office, his support among this key Democratic voting bloc has significantly declined.

Additionally, recent joint polls by The New York Times and Siena College, as well as Axios and Ipsos, show a substantial drop in support for Biden among Latino voters, a crucial Democratic voting group, while Trump’s support among Latino voters has significantly increased.

【Reference: Politico website】

Responsibility editor: Lin Yan#