Hong Kong’s secondary property market has been closely monitored by the Centaline City Leading Index (CCL), which announced its latest value on June 21st at 143.38 points. As of June 16th, the weekly index saw a decrease of 0.79%, while the monthly index dropped by 0.43%. Since the outbreak of the pandemic on January 26, 2020, the index has fallen by 19.26%, with a cumulative decline of 23.15% over the past three years.
In terms of unit size, large and medium-sized units recorded weekly decreases of 0.65% and 0.81% respectively, with cumulative declines of 20.56% and 23.66% over the past three years.
Breaking it down by region, the weekly and three-year cumulative price trends showed that Hong Kong Island rose by 0.06% but dropped by 25.49%, Kowloon declined by 1.30% and 24.50%, the New Territories East increased by 0.34% but dropped by 20.64%, and the New Territories West fell by 1.03% and 23.95%.
According to Yang Ming-yi, Senior Joint Director of Research at Centaline Property, after 14 weeks since the cooling measures were withdrawn, the CCL has seen six rises and eight falls. Currently, only a 0.25% gap remains to completely erase all post-cooling measure gains. It is estimated that by the end of June, the index will fall below the pre-cooling measure low of 143.02 points, with a temporary 2.6% drop in the first half of the year. Market sentiment is cautious due to uncertain interest rate cuts, high interest rates, tightened mortgage lending by banks, and new property discounts to attract customers, leading to sparse transactions and ongoing downward adjustments in overall property prices.
This week, the CCL hit its lowest point in over 7 and a half years (400 weeks), returning to levels seen in mid-October 2016. While the pace of decline in property prices is slower than expected, the short-term target for CCL remains at 140 points, with a current gap of 3.38 points. The impact of recent property sales announcements, such as the release of 30 units for Heng Fa Chuen on June 18th, 50 units for Cetus Square in Sai Ying Pun on June 20th, and 160 units for NOVO LAND Phase 3B in Tuen Mun on June 22nd, will only begin to be reflected in the CCL to be published in mid-July.
Among the constituent estates in the CCL, the top three in terms of price per square foot are The Leighton Hill at 42,045 HKD, The Dynasty at 34,938 HKD, and The Grand Panorama at 33,634 HKD. The three with the lowest prices are Chun Wo Tsuen at 7,348 HKD, New Tuen Mun Centre at 8,536 HKD, and Sea Crest Garden at 8,699 HKD.
The top three estates with the best performance in average monthly price over 4 weeks are Convention Plaza Apartments at Park Avenue up 15.5%, The Summit up 10.8%, and Po Chi Court up 10.1%. The worst performers were Villa Carlton down 8.7%, City One Shatin down 6.9%, and Imperial Cullinan down 6.2%.