Starting from July 1, the Ecuadorian government will suspend visa-free entry for Chinese tourists, aiming to curb the popular route taken by Chinese travelers heading to the U.S.-Mexico border. However, experts believe that alternative routes will soon be found, although costs may increase, ensuring that Chinese travelers will continue to find ways to reach the United States.
The Ecuadorian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced this decision on social media on June 18, stating that nearly half of Chinese tourists entering Ecuador did not “leave through normal channels” or exit within the allowed 90 days.
A study by the Niskanen Center in Washington in May showed that in 2023, there were 48,381 Chinese tourists entering Ecuador, but only 24,240 legally exited the country, giving rise to the “highest discrepancy among all nationalities.”
According to statistics from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) until May of the 2024 fiscal year (October 2023 to September 2024), there were 31,309 Chinese nationals entering the U.S. through the southwest border, exceeding the total of 24,314 for the entire 2023 fiscal year (October 2022 to September 2023).
Ecuador and China have been implementing a visa exemption system since 2016, allowing Chinese citizens to stay in Ecuador for up to 90 days. In recent years, the relationship between Quito and Beijing has deepened, culminating in the signing of a free trade agreement in May last year.
Currently, Ecuador remains a popular route for Chinese travelers, with many of them flying from Hong Kong or Thailand to Turkey, and then continuing on to Ecuador’s capital, Quito.
For those with more financial resources, they can apply for visas to Schengen Area countries, Japan, or the UK to fly to Mexico. Alternatively, they can directly obtain a Mexican visa through intermediaries, completing the journey with the shortest route.
In February this year, Zhou Hongyan, a former financial professional from mainland China who came to the U.S., told Epoch Times that the cancellation of visa-free entry by Ecuador would definitely have an impact. Yet, a new route will be found, such as reverting to more primitive methods like traveling in shipping containers or flying from European or Japanese third countries to Mexico. However, costs may increase to 300,000 to 500,000 RMB, resulting in a decrease in travelers.
“As long as the U.S. does not completely shut the door and prevent you from entering, not being able to come in is fatal,” Zhou said.
Mr. Li from a Thai intermediary company told Epoch Times that for average economic conditions and low education level Chinese citizens, Ecuador’s well-established route being blocked will definitely increase difficulties.
“Years ago, it was more expensive to travel to the U.S., costing around 200,000 to 300,000 RMB. Nowadays, with the route to Ecuador becoming well-known for Chinese travelers, along the way, there are many Chinese hotels, homestays, and money exchange places, with many people not needing to seek out smuggling routes. Prices have gradually decreased. I heard that the lowest cost is around 30,000 RMB, some spending 50,000 or more, depending on the safety and convenience requirements of the route.”
Regarding other routes, Mr. Li believes that it is more challenging for Chinese nationals to obtain Mexican visas. Although many hold visas for Japan, the EU, and the UK, allowing visa-free entry into Mexico, it is still not easy for the less fortunate Chinese nationals. For instance, a Japanese visa must be a multiple-entry visa for over three years, as a single-entry visa is insufficient. Applicants also need documents related to bank deposits and employment.
However, he believes that there will still be relatively easier routes developed because there are many people in need of setting up routes to bring their relatives and friends out.
Zheng Cunzhu, a legal worker in Los Angeles, told Epoch Times that there would be some impact, but it would be short-term. This is mainly due to internal issues in China, such as the economy and freedom, and the trend of Chinese people voting with their feet will not change.
“By now, Chinese people are aware of the routes. I know that many people are still planning. For example, some early arrivals in the U.S. are helping relatives and friends to come to the U.S.”
Zheng believes that there should be two alternative routes in the future: one through Central America. Many Central American countries have established diplomatic relations with mainland China, allowing for travel and business visas. This effectively bypasses the rainforest no man’s land along the route through Ecuador, enhancing security. The cost may not necessarily increase, but Central American countries are closer to the U.S., with visa processing being slightly more complicated and involving intermediary fees.
The second option is to choose countries in South America, such as Brazil and Argentina, where visas are easy to obtain, then travel to Colombia, which theoretically requires a visa. However, whether by taxi or bus, entry is possible; then enter Central America, Mexico, and finally the U.S.
Zheng mentioned that for the travel route, there are mainly additional visa procedures and increased costs. The advantage of the Ecuador route was the exemption from visas, but countries like Cuba have also exempted Chinese citizens this year.
“Many people also fly directly to Mexico, holding visas for Europe, Canada, and Japan, they can fly directly to Mexico without having to go through such a big loop, though costs would increase.”
However, Zheng believes that if U.S. immigration policies or border enforcement intensifies, many people may face struggles after reaching the border, soon to be deported. If such incidents occur frequently, the flow of travelers is likely to decrease in the future.
With the surge in Chinese travelers to the U.S., the Chinese authorities have begun to intensify inspections on outbound travel, starting to crack down on these routes. Yet, it seems to be done discreetly and with less emphasis.
Zheng believes that during the early stages of China’s economic development, a considerable portion of funds came from Chinese stowaways working abroad. Therefore, the Chinese government has always turned a blind eye to stowaways and has not taken very severe measures to combat illegal immigration. The same leniency applies to those traveling to the U.S.
Mr. Li analyzed that if the Chinese authorities want to deliberately stop travel to the U.S., they would mobilize their strong propaganda machinery, harshly crack down on some snakeheads, and use all the controlled media platforms to spread propaganda, intimidating the populace not to contemplate traveling. However, such propaganda has not been seen yet.
In response to U.S. government criticism of Chinese authorities’ inaction, the Chinese authorities have only recently responded. On June 18, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian claimed that the law enforcement departments of the Chinese authorities “maintain a high-pressure crackdown on various smuggling organizations and illegal elements involved in smuggling activities,” while continuously cooperating with other countries to “jointly combat cross-border smuggling activities and repatriate illegal immigrants.”
According to a report by the Associated Press in May this year, the U.S. and China have quietly resumed cooperation in deporting illegal Chinese immigrants who are staying in the U.S. After China suspended cooperation in August 2022, the number of Chinese immigrants illegally entering the U.S. from Mexico surged.
The recent cancellation by Ecuador of visa-free entry for Chinese citizens has led some analysts to believe that it could be due to pressure from the U.S. and other regional countries, yet it could also be a result of pressure from the Chinese Communist government.
“It is believed that the cancellation of visa-free entry by Ecuador is due to pressure from the Chinese Communist government or the U.S., aimed at increasing the difficulty of travel routes,” Zheng said.
Zhou Hongyan believes that the reason for the cancellation of visa-free entry could be pressure from the Chinese Communist government. With so many Chinese travelers on these routes, after arriving in the U.S., many engage in anti-Communist activities at the Chinese embassy daily. This causes embarrassment to the Chinese Communist regime, as although they do not care if the people are struggling to eat, they place great importance on diplomatic image.
Zheng stated that during the early stages of the pandemic, the Chinese authorities had already noticed the issue with travelers, including some being advised to return and others attempting multiple times at customs checkpoints.
“Deportations of Chinese travelers have always existed. Currently, as far as I know, those deported are having their passports confiscated by U.S. border officials upon entry, which are then recognized as invalid staying in the U.S. Judges rule that they cannot remain in the U.S. and they will be deported in batches from jail back to China.”
“A lot of these travelers who make it to the U.S. lose their passports upon entry or mail it in advance to their relatives or friends,” he said, without a passport, the U.S. government has no means to deport them. Moreover, the Chinese authorities act uncooperatively, refusing to acknowledge them as Chinese citizens, thus not providing travel documents or passports to these individuals.
Zheng stated that the Chinese government follows two standards. For officials listed on Interpol Red Notices, they actively request the U.S. government to assist in deporting them back to China. However, for those without legitimate reasons to remain in the U.S., facing deportation by the U.S. government, China does not cooperate in accepting their return.
Zheng expressed that in the future, the number of Chinese travelers to the U.S. will not decrease but increase, albeit with higher costs, as they seek more ways to enter the United States.
He analyzed, “Currently, the Chinese Communist Party is backtracking, with the Party Leader initiating a Second Cultural Revolution, but the people already know about the outside world through reform and opening up. More people will vote with their feet and leave China to seek freedom and democracy in the U.S.”
“Will the Chinese people give up traveling to the U.S.?” Mr. Li believes there are two scenarios. Some may give up for economic reasons to earn a substantial income in the U.S. But others deeply identify with American values, viewing traveling as a pursuit of freedom and dignity. “For me, I want freedom.”
Zhou Hongyan stated that the Chinese people will not give up traveling, as there are those seeking freedom, which cannot be restrained. Pursuing freedom provides them with significant motivation. “For me, I want freedom.”