On Tuesday, primary elections were held in several states across the United States, with Virginia attracting the most national attention.
In Virginia, the battle between Bob Good, chairman of the Freedom Caucus of the House of Representatives, and state senator John McGuire ended in a close race without a clear winner.
Primary elections also took place in Georgia and Oklahoma, but there were no surprises in these races.
Several key races from Tuesday’s primaries are expected to have a significant impact on the composition of the 119th U.S. Congress.
Among the highlights of the evening is the dramatic showdown in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District between Good and McGuire, which has been one of the most closely watched primary races nationwide.
Due to the close margin, it is likely that a recount may be requested.
McGuire received the endorsement of former President Trump, while Good was sidelined by Trump due to his early support for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis during the Republican presidential primary.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s Majority Committee PAC also supported McGuire. Good was one of eight Republicans who voted to remove McCarthy as speaker last October alongside all Democrats.
McGuire leads Good with a 0.6% margin. McGuire has 50.3% of the votes, Good has 49.7%. With approximately 62,500 votes cast, the difference between the two is only 327 votes.
Under Virginia law, any candidate who loses by less than 1% in a race is eligible to request a recount, and the second-place candidate is likely to do so.
Although most pundits believe the race is still too close to call, McGuire declared victory at his campaign party.
Good took to social media platform X to thank his supporters and explicitly stated that he has not conceded. He wrote, “The entire Washington swamp is spending over $10 million in attack ads against us, but with your help, we were able to keep this race undecided.”
Good expressed hope that early and mail-in ballots yet to be counted could increase his vote total, and pledged that his campaign team will “ensure we have observers and legal counsel to correctly tally all votes over the coming days.”
In Oklahoma’s 4th Congressional District, House Appropriations Committee chairman Tom Cole easily fended off a primary challenge from the right.
Four Republicans vied for Cole’s seat, but only Paul Bondar received over 10% of the votes.
The tally results show Cole with 64.6% of the votes and Bondar with 25.8%. Neither candidate has issued a statement regarding the results.
Cole’s victory ensures his re-election in this deeply conservative district.
The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) issued a congratulatory statement Tuesday night after Cole’s resounding victory. NRCC spokesperson Delanie Bomar said in a press release, “No one is more suited to fight for this district than Congressman Cole.” “We believe voters will elect Tom to Congress again in November.”
In Virginia, the Republicans nominated Navy veteran Hung Cao to vie for the seat against Democratic Senator Tim Kaine in November.
Cao garnered Trump’s support, defeating four other Republican candidates: Jonathan Emord, Eddie Garcia, Scott Parkinson, and Chuck Smith.
Kaine is a relatively popular incumbent, known to most Americans for being the running mate of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.
For Cao, this will be a tough battle.
Kaine is a political heavyweight in the state, having won in the last election by about 16 percentage points.
In Virginia, the last time a Republican entered the U.S. Senate was in 2002. The last time the state voted Republican in a presidential election was in 2004 when Virginians voted for President Bush’s re-election.
However, there are some encouraging signs for Republicans as well. Two recent polls show that support for Trump and Biden in the state is neck and neck.
Early polls suggest that regardless of the presidential election outcome, Kaine still maintains an advantage in the Senate.
Early polls have also examined a hypothetical matchup between Governor Glenn Youngkin and Kaine. These polls show Kaine leading by 2 to 5 percentage points. This is not good news for Cao as he lacks the name recognition within the state compared to Youngkin.
In late April, a poll asked voters whom they would choose in a hypothetical showdown between Kaine and Cao. The poll showed Kaine leading by 12 percentage points.
Despite this, polls indicate that Republican performance in Virginia is expected to be better than before, making this Senate seat a target for the Republicans.
Democrats hope to retain two open seats in swing districts in Virginia. One seat is in the 7th Congressional District, currently held by Democratic Representative Abigail Spanberger, who will be running for governor next year, leaving the seat vacant.
The other seat is in the 10th Congressional District, where Representative Jennifer Wexton plans to retire this year following a diagnosis of a Parkinson’s-like disease.
Both seats are located in the suburbs of Washington, D.C. Over the past two decades, the northern region of Virginia has been leaning increasingly left, giving Democrats a slight edge in the fight for these two seats.
Nevertheless, these two seats are also top priorities for Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson as the Republicans seek to maintain and expand their majority in the House.
In the 7th Congressional District, Republicans nominated 39-year-old veteran Derrick Anderson. Democrats nominated former National Security Council ethics lawyer Eugene Vindman to compete against Anderson.
The 7th Congressional District is a key battleground and one of the most diverse districts in Virginia following the 2021 redistricting, stretching from the north to the central regions, encompassing over 10 counties and the independent city of Fredericksburg.
In 2018, Democrat Spanberger narrowly won in the old 7th District, ending a Republican winning streak dating back half a century. Two years later, she defended her seat again with a slim margin. In 2022, she secured a third term in the redrawn 7th District with a margin of less than 5 percentage points.
In the 10th Congressional District, Mike Clancy won 64.3% of the votes to become the Republican nominee.
Democrats chose state Senator Suhas Subramanyam as the nominee, aiming to retain Wexton’s seat.
Mr. Subramanyam defeated several candidates, garnering 30.4% of the votes, with the closest competitor at 26.7%.
The 10th Congressional District is traditionally a Republican stronghold. It was held by Republicans until Wexton’s victory in the blue wave of 2018, marking the first time the district had been under Democratic control since its establishment.
With the changing demographics in northern Virginia, the challenge of recapturing this seat may become increasingly difficult for Republicans.