Recently, a senior researcher at the Stimson Center, a think tank in the United States, stated at a briefing in Seoul that North Korea is more inclined to build closer ties with Russia than China due to the assistance it can receive in military matters and the international support. South Korean presidential office officials revealed on June 12 that Russian President Putin will soon visit North Korea. On June 14, South Korean and American officials warned that Putin’s upcoming visit to North Korea could deepen military cooperation between the two countries, potentially violating United Nations Security Council resolutions.
At a briefing for foreign media journalists in South Korea, Jenny Town, the head of the 38 North Program at the Stimson Center, discussed the current geopolitical trends in North Korea and answered questions from reporters. She pointed out the contrasting approaches of China and Russia towards North Korea during the recent UN Security Council vote to extend the sanctions committee’s expert panel’s term. While China abstained, Russia vetoed the resolution, highlighting North Korea’s growing preference for Russia as a key diplomatic partner.
Moreover, Jenny Town emphasized that while China’s support for North Korea mainly revolves around political and economic aid rather than military cooperation, Russia has shown willingness to establish a deep relationship with North Korea, including in the military realm, which is highly appealing to North Korea. She explained that Russia’s acceptance of North Korea as a nuclear-armed state plays a crucial role in shaping North Korea’s foreign policy priorities.
Regarding North Korea’s nuclear stance, Jenny noted that China advocates for denuclearization, whereas Russia appears to acknowledge and recognize North Korea as a nuclear state. This difference influences North Korea’s prioritization of its relationship with Russia over China, particularly in military and diplomatic aspects. She highlighted how Kim Jong-un benefits politically from the North Korea-Russia relations, especially amid failed negotiations with the US and South Korea and challenges posed by the pandemic.
In light of the economic sanctions imposed on North Korea, Jenny mentioned the country’s shift towards defense industry and defense exports due to restrictions on major light industrial trades, such as textiles and seafood, for several years. Collaborating with Russia provides North Korea with alternative economic opportunities it lacked before. South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense also disclosed Minister Suh Wook’s interview with Bloomberg, where he anticipated Putin’s potential request for military assistance for North Korea, including ballistic missiles, during his visit, indicating a possible leverage shift if Russia decides to transfer advanced technologies.
Minister Suh expressed skepticism about North Korea’s ability to meet Russia’s demands and suggested that Russia might utilize advanced technologies as a last resort, indicating a power play that could impact its influence over North Korea. The evolving dynamics between Russia, China, and North Korea underscore the intricate diplomatic and strategic considerations in Northeast Asia.