The price of orange juice seems difficult to stabilize: a bumper crop of oranges leads to oversupply and a drop in prices; when frost or hurricanes strike and destroy fruit trees, prices go up. But currently, global orange juice prices have hit a historic high, and they might continue at this level for a while. This is because orange orchards in some major producing countries have been affected by disease disasters and extreme weather conditions, issues that are not easy to resolve.
According to a report by the Associated Press, the orange harvest in Brazil (the world’s largest orange juice exporter) may reach its lowest level in 36 years due to floods and droughts. “The worrying thing is not just the rising price of juice. The worrying thing is the lack of juice,” said Oscar Simonetti, an orange farmer from Mogi Guacu, Brazil.
In the 2022-2023 season, orange production in Florida, USA, decreased by 62% due to Hurricane Ian further impacting citrus crops already struggling with pests. Meanwhile, droughts also led to a decrease in orange production in Spain last year.
The scarcity of oranges has led to a surge in orange juice prices. According to government data, in the US, the average price for a 12-ounce can of frozen concentrated orange juice in April was $4.27, a 42% increase from the same period last year.
The British Fruit Juice Association stated that orange juice supply in the UK is at its lowest level in 50 years. Data from consumer research company Nielsen shows that the price of fresh orange juice has risen by 25% over the past year.
The rising price of orange juice has made consumers wary amid inflation. The Dutch banking cooperative Rabobank, which focuses on food and agriculture, reported a 15% to 25% decline in orange juice consumption in major markets worldwide, including the US and the EU.
Jonna Parker, head of fresh food consumption research at Circana, a market research company, said consumers are increasingly opting for fruit intake from energy drinks, smoothies, and other beverages at breakfast instead of orange juice. “As the price of orange juice goes up, people naturally consider alternatives,” she said.
Due to competition from other beverages and public concerns about the high sugar content in juice, global orange juice consumption had already started to decline before the recent price increases. Rabobank believes that if this trend continues, it should help balance supply and demand, preventing further price hikes. However, the bank expects limited supply to keep orange juice prices high for some time.
In some markets, orange juice has completely disappeared from shelves.
At the end of last year, McDonald’s in Australia removed pure orange juice from its menu, replacing it with a “orange juice beverage” containing 35% orange juice due to supply shortages.
A spokesperson for Morinaga Milk Industry Co., based in Tokyo, announced that due to the insufficient supply of Brazilian juice, the company plans to stop shipping its Sunkist brand orange juice (which uses juice from Brazil) by the end of June. In April 2023, Sapporo-based Snow Brand Dairy Co. halted shipments of 1-liter and 450-milliliter packages of orange juice sold under an agreement with Dole. Sales have not resumed.
Some companies are considering using orange juice alternatives in their products. UK juice company Coldpress launched an orange juice product in February, citing the high price of freshly squeezed orange juice.
However, others remain tight-lipped about their plans. Several major orange juice producers – including Dole, PureJuice, Florida’s Natural, Uncle Matt’s, and Coca-Cola, which produces the Simply and Minute Maid brands – declined to comment or did not respond to requests from the Associated Press.
The root of the current supply issue can be traced back several decades. In 2005, an invasive insect called the Asian citrus psyllid arrived in Florida and injected bacteria from its saliva into orange trees. This bacterium slowly kills the trees by damaging their root systems. Once infected, the trees are beyond saving.
The impact of this pest has been devastating. Before the citrus greening disease hit Florida in 2004, the state produced 200 million boxes of oranges. This year, the production is expected to be less than 20 million boxes.
Michael Rogers, an entomology professor and director of the University of Florida’s Citrus Research and Education Center, said that no orange tree can fully resist citrus greening disease, but scientists have been working on breeding orange trees that can resist the disease.
Citrus greening disease appeared in Brazil around the same time as in Florida, but because Brazil has a much larger orange tree population, the spread of the pest has been slower. Rogers explained that the insects spread the disease by flying between trees.
Despite efforts, the pest continues to spread. Fundecitrus estimates that 38% of orange trees in Brazil were affected by citrus greening disease in 2023. Simonetti, the orange farmer, estimates that 20% of his production is affected by the disease. He noted that due to the disease, oranges on trees fail to mature properly and fall prematurely, affecting juice quality.